74 Fern Cir · Winchendon, MA 03447

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 814 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1991 8,276 sqft lot $129/sqft · 54% below area $154/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Hitting the market early in the season, this is a rare opportunity to complete renovations and still enjoy the summer ahead. Tucked along the shores of Sip Pond within the private, gated Woodbrook Camp & Tennis Club, where you own your home and the land, this seasonal community offers a peaceful, retreat-like setting. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is being sold as-is in its current unfinished condition—presenting the perfect chance to bring your vision to life and create your own getaway. Whether you’re envisioning a cozy camp, a stylish vacation escape, or an investment project, this property is ready for its next chapter. Woodbrook is a gated, family-friendly community des

Key facts

• $154 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1991

Tags

• PRIVATE GATED COMMUNITY
• PEACEFUL RETREAT SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Woodbrook Camp and Tennis Club
• HOA & community: Condo association with annual fee; Annual fee approximately 1850; Association covers landscaping, plowing, recreation, sewer, trash, water, and park fees; Association amenities include recreation facility, beach access/rights, boat slip/dock, in-ground pool, pickleball, snow removal, and trash removal

Exterior

• Parking: Dirt and gravel driveway
• Utilities: Community and private water available; Community or shared septic; Circuit breaker electrical panel; Cable available; Fiber optic internet available; LP/Bottle gas available
• Home design: Cottage/Camp style; Manufactured home; Built in 1991; Metal roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Beach access; Located in a condo development; Surveyed

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas stove
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Cooling: other
• Interior features: Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 4.2% in Winchendon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#125 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F.
• Monadnock Regional School District (rural): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #82 of 98 in NH (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 166 units permitted in Cheshire County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cheshire County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.11%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,839
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -53.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Lakeside Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0	748 (-8%)	11mo	$65,000	$87	74
63 Brook Side Rd	0.24mi	2/1.0	760 (-7%)	13mo	$135,000	$178	67
94 Lakeside Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5 (+1)	716 (-12%)	24mo	$125,000	$175	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $94,974
• Equity at exit: $94,592

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.52×
• Total profit: $250,436
• Equity at exit: $203,992

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03447

• Home prices YoY: 24.0%
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,457/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,206

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $105,000 Active 1386-char remark
18. 2025-10-24
    price $94,900
19. 2025-09-06
    price $99,900
20. 2025-08-15
    price $106,000
21. 2023-08-01
    price $125,000
22. 2023-07-10
    price $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,457 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,457 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,457
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $5,932
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,424
• After-tax cash flow: $5,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monadnock Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3304890
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,314
• Composite: 27.18/100
• National rank: #7024
• State rank: #82 of 98 in NH

Livability — Winchendon

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #6726

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,317

Population outlook (Cheshire County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,613 people
• By 2030: 72,495 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 66,778 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 60,963 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 49,511 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 39,687 · -46.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 7% Slovene 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cheshire

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.4% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+17.2 2016: D+12.6 2012: D+24.8 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 76.42%
• Current HPI: 394.7824
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $105,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $94,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $99,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $106,000 PrimeMLS
• 2023-08-01 Price Changed $125,000 PrimeMLS
• 2023-07-10 Price Changed $130,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,457 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.