405 Maplehurst Ct · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

Built 2002 3,920 sqft lot $84/sqft · 23% below area Est $136k · 23% under $903/mo HOA · 55% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 405 Maplehurst Ct in the desirable Pine Ridge South Adult Community in Manchester! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features new hardwood floors and a newer roof, offering both style and peace of mind. Enjoy a bright, functional layout with comfortable living spaces and unwind in the screened-in porch, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. This move-in ready home is a must-see!

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2002

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $57k (45.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 6.0% in Pine Ridge at Crestwood — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $105k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 55% of rent.

Recommended offer $56,832 (45.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.59%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,011
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -22.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1104 Sycamore Ct	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,243 (-0%)	2mo	$168,000	$135	88
301 Kenwood Ct	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-8%)	4mo	$125,000	$109	82
507 Momosa Way	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,334 (+7%)	5mo	$145,000	$109	77
536 Momosa Way	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+14%)	1mo	$163,000	$115	69
3 Badger Ct	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	2mo	$85,000	$74	64
3 Amherst Rd #63	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,219 (-2%)	5mo	$250,000	$205	63
3 Arbor St	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,196 (-4%)	3mo	$55,000	$46	62
55 Winkle Ct	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,287 (+3%)	6mo	$280,000	$218	58
32 Winkle Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,287 (+3%)	4mo	$212,000	$165	57
10 Alpine Rd #63	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+12%)	1mo	$170,000	$122	52
7 Amherst Rd Unit A	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,076 (-14%)	1mo	$225,000	$209	48
15A Alpine Rd #63	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,076 (-14%)	1mo	$205,000	$191	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-37,636
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.96×
• Total profit: $-57,718
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$903
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,062

Max offer price $56,832

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-260	-5% $-297	+0% $-333	+5% $-369	+10% $-405
Rent	-10% $-462	-5% $-398	+0% $-333	+5% $-268	+10% $-203
Rate	-1.0pp $-280	-0.5pp $-306	base $-333	+0.5pp $-360	+1.0pp $-388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
— Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	11d	1	0.45mi
24 Partridge Pl Manchester Township, NJ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,780	$1.43	13d	1	0.47mi
4 Autumn Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	0d	1	0.49mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	5d	1	0.61mi
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	5d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $903 · $10,836/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    price $105,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome to 405 Maplehurst Ct in the desirable Pine Ridge South Adult Community in Manchester! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features new hardwood floors and a newer roof, offering both style and peace of mind. Enjoy a bright, functional layout with comfortable living spaces and unwind in the screened-in porch, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. This move-in ready home is a must-see!

16. 2026-03-31
    price $115,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome to 405 Maplehurst Ct in the desirable Pine Ridge South Adult Community in Manchester! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features new hardwood floors and a newer roof, offering both style and peace of mind. Enjoy a bright, functional layout with comfortable living spaces and unwind in the screened-in porch, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. This move-in ready home is a must-see!

17. 2026-01-23
    listed $125,000 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome to 405 Maplehurst Ct in the desirable Pine Ridge South Adult Community in Manchester! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features new hardwood floors and a newer roof, offering both style and peace of mind. Enjoy a bright, functional layout with comfortable living spaces and unwind in the screened-in porch, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. This move-in ready home is a must-see!

18. 2026-01-23
    historical $125,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome to 405 Maplehurst Ct in the desirable Pine Ridge South Adult Community in Manchester! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features new hardwood floors and a newer roof, offering both style and peace of mind. Enjoy a bright, functional layout with comfortable living spaces and unwind in the screened-in porch, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. This move-in ready home is a must-see!

19. 2013-09-03
    soldstatus $38,500 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    ''MINT'' NEWER SEQOUIA MODEL HOME - FEATURING 2 BEDROOMS, WITH WALK-IN CLOSET AT MASTER BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATHS, LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM, EAT-IN KITCHEN, CATHEDRAL CEILING, UTILITY ROOM AND A (RARE BONUS) SPACIOUS ENCLOSED PORCH! STORAGE SHED @ REAR YARD! NATURAL GAS SERVICE! GREAT CLUB HOUSE WITH MANY ACTIVITIES, TENNIS, POOL, BOCCI, GYM AND MORE... GREAT WHITING LOCATION - SHORT RIDE TO BEACH, BOARDWALK, A/C AND MORE... MAKE YOUR OFFER TODAY!

20. 2013-08-17
    soldstatus $38,500
21. 2013-04-13
    listed $44,900 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    ''MINT'' NEWER SEQOUIA MODEL HOME - FEATURING 2 BEDROOMS, WITH WALK-IN CLOSET AT MASTER BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATHS, LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM, EAT-IN KITCHEN, CATHEDRAL CEILING, UTILITY ROOM AND A (RARE BONUS) SPACIOUS ENCLOSED PORCH! STORAGE SHED @ REAR YARD! NATURAL GAS SERVICE! GREAT CLUB HOUSE WITH MANY ACTIVITIES, TENNIS, POOL, BOCCI, GYM AND MORE... GREAT WHITING LOCATION - SHORT RIDE TO BEACH, BOARDWALK, A/C AND MORE... MAKE YOUR OFFER TODAY!

22. 2013-04-13
    listed $44,900

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    ''MINT'' NEWER SEQOUIA MODEL HOME - FEATURING 2 BEDROOMS, WITH WALK-IN CLOSET AT MASTER BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATHS, LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM, EAT-IN KITCHEN, CATHEDRAL CEILING, UTILITY ROOM AND A (RARE BONUS) SPACIOUS ENCLOSED PORCH! STORAGE SHED @ REAR YARD! NATURAL GAS SERVICE! GREAT CLUB HOUSE WITH MANY ACTIVITIES, TENNIS, POOL, BOCCI, GYM AND MORE... GREAT WHITING LOCATION - SHORT RIDE TO BEACH, BOARDWALK, A/C AND MORE... MAKE YOUR OFFER TODAY!

23. 2012-12-31
    historical
24. 2012-05-24
    listed $44,900
25. 2012-05-24
    listed $44,900
26. 2011-07-09
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − HOA: −$10,836
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$5,339
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,281
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+75.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $105,000 MOMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $115,000 MOMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $125,000 MOMLS
• 2026-01-23 Coming Soon $125,000 MOMLS
• 2013-09-03 Sold (MLS) $38,500 MOMLS
• 2013-08-17 Sold (MLS) $38,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-04-13 Listed $44,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-04-13 Listed $44,900 MOMLS
• 2012-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-05-24 Listed $44,900 MOMLS
• 2012-05-24 Listed $44,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-07-09 Listed $59,900 MOMLS