15606 S Gilbert Rd #29 · Chandler, AZ 85225

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured · 43 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition $57/sqft · 16% above area Est $35k · 16% over ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked inside one of Chandler's hidden manufactured home communities, this updated 2-bedroom home may surprise you from the moment you walk through the door. From the newer flooring and freshly painted gray-and-white cabinetry to the updated appliances and newer HVAC/roof, this home offers a more modern feel than many buyers expect in this price range. The split-bedroom floorplan provides privacy, while the flexible second bedroom and built-in desk area create an ideal setup for working from home, hobbies, or guests. The kitchen features a newer gas stove, dishwasher, garbage disposal, refrigerator, and plenty of cabinet space. Stackable washer and dryer are included too. Outside your front

Key facts

• Parking
• Community pool
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source listed as owner; Building area source listed as owner
• HOA & community: Land lease community with monthly land lease fee; Land lease: $850 per month; Association maintains grounds and streets; No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat allowed; Community amenities include a pool, community media room, and on-site coin-operated laundry

Exterior

• Parking: 1 open parking space
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Board & batten siding; Steel frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front and back yard; No fencing; Heated spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump providing heating and cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 41.3% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 125.04%
• DSCR: 6.56
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $34,600
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: 15.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15606 S Gilbert Rd #49	0.11mi	2/1.0	720 (+3%)	11mo	$25,000	$35	81
15606 S Gilbert Rd #94	0.11mi	2/1.0	720 (+3%)	15mo	$35,000	$49	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $62,519
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.57×
• Total profit: $129,567
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85225

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $1,167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,195	-5% $1,181	+0% $1,167	+5% $1,153	+10% $1,139
Rent	-10% $1,023	-5% $1,095	+0% $1,167	+5% $1,239	+10% $1,311
Rate	-1.0pp $1,187	-0.5pp $1,177	base $1,167	+0.5pp $1,157	+1.0pp $1,146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 E Rivulon Blvd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$3,142	$2.73	2d	58	1.30mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $40,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $50,000 Active 1174-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $14,213
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,411
• After-tax cash flow: $10,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This updated 2-bedroom manufactured home in Chandler offers a modern feel with good condition and minimal repairs needed. The included appliances and split-bedroom layout make it a great option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and aesthetics
• Both Upgrade kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 72,297
• Household income: $88,676
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2327.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.25%
• Current HPI: 328.8354
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $40,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $50,000 ARMLS