1015 Ferguson Ave · Watertown, NY 13601

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 966 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1920 2,480 sqft lot $78/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home has been completely redone inside. New sheetrock, flooring, cabinets, windows, appliances etc. Updated wiring, insulation. Plenty of natural lighting inside and an oversized master bedroom and gorgeous wood flooring add to this home's charm. Subflooring has been put down in the attic for storage space with stairway access as well. So much hard work has been put into this home. Own it and pay less than rent! Call today to schedule a viewing!

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Updated wiring
• Brand new roof

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• UPDATED WIRING
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• UPDATED FLOORING
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• BRAND NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story existing home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block and stone foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 31 x 80

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6 (includes living and laundry areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.93%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,468
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -56.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
131 Girard Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (-4%)	4mo	$140,000	$152	60
629 Bronson St	0.38mi	2/1.0	882 (-9%)	18mo	$55,000	$62	52
18451 County Route 162	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,065 (+10%)	19mo	$218,450	$205	51
1137 Franklin St	0.53mi	2/1.0	868 (-10%)	10mo	$110,000	$127	50
401 Pawling St	0.57mi	2/1.0	880 (-9%)	10mo	$159,000	$181	50
603 Emerson St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+14%)	8mo	$128,000	$116	47
400 Pawling St	0.58mi	2/1.5	1,010 (+5%)	20mo	$135,000	$134	47
616 Lillian St	0.75mi	2/1.0	902 (-7%)	16mo	$125,500	$139	40
237 N Pearl Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-11%)	22mo	$180,000	$208	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $25,247
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $90,620
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,191 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $329/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $572

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
927 State St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.09mi
816 Boyd St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	43d	1	0.23mi
311 High St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	851	$1,200	$1.41	43d	1	0.46mi
256 Michigan Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,253	$0.87	43d	9	0.46mi
334 Clay St Unit 4 Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,070	$1.53	43d	1	0.67mi
152 Court St Unit 5 Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	43d	1	0.92mi
1815 Olmstead Dr Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1380	$1,249	$0.91	43d	6	0.98mi
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	43d	1	1.02mi
351 W Main St Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	43d	1	1.07mi
136 N Meadow St Unit A Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	43d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $75,000 Active 627-char remark
2. 2020-12-03
   soldstatus $55,000
3. 2020-12-01
   soldstatus $55,000 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Home has been completely redone inside. New sheetrock, flooring, cabinets, windows, appliances etc. Updated wiring, insulation. Plenty of natural lighting inside and an oversized master bedroom and gorgeous wood flooring add to this home's charm. Subflooring has been put down in the attic for storage space with stairway access as well. So much hard work has been put into this home. Own it and pay less than rent! Call today to schedule a viewing!

4. 2020-06-12
   listed $62,000 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Home has been completely redone inside. New sheetrock, flooring, cabinets, windows, appliances etc. Updated wiring, insulation. Plenty of natural lighting inside and an oversized master bedroom and gorgeous wood flooring add to this home's charm. Subflooring has been put down in the attic for storage space with stairway access as well. So much hard work has been put into this home. Own it and pay less than rent! Call today to schedule a viewing!

5. 2017-02-06
   soldstatus $42,550
6. 2017-02-03
   soldstatus $42,550

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   Solid house, easy to heat. Dead end private street that city maintains so very little traffic. Parking in front of house or behind in yard. Access to both. New porch, new siding, new carpet, updated kitchen, updated bathroom, new flooring, new windows. New Paint, New gas furnace, new water heater. At this price so much less than rent! Largest of the two good sized bedrooms is 20 X 12. Large rear yard and a true must see at an excellent price.

7. 2016-10-04
   listed $44,900

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   Solid house, easy to heat. Dead end private street that city maintains so very little traffic. Parking in front of house or behind in yard. Access to both. New porch, new siding, new carpet, updated kitchen, updated bathroom, new flooring, new windows. New Paint, New gas furnace, new water heater. At this price so much less than rent! Largest of the two good sized bedrooms is 20 X 12. Large rear yard and a true must see at an excellent price.

8. 2016-08-07
   historical
9. 2016-07-08
   listed $49,500
10. 2015-10-30
    historical
11. 2015-07-02
    listed $49,900
12. 2006-06-29
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $329 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $798 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$469/yr (+$39/mo · 142.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$329
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,143
• − Management: −$1,143
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,916
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,180
• After-tax cash flow: $4,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $75,000 CNYIS
• 2020-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-01 Sold (MLS) $55,000 CNYIS
• 2020-06-12 Listed $62,000 CNYIS
• 2017-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $42,550 Public Records
• 2017-02-03 Sold (MLS) $42,550 CNYIS
• 2016-10-04 Listed $44,900 CNYIS
• 2016-08-07 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2016-07-08 Listed $49,500 CNYIS
• 2015-10-30 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-07-02 Listed $49,900 CNYIS
• 2006-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $329 · -58.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.