555 W Warner Rd #139 · Chandler, AZ 85225

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 267 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition $118/sqft · 70% above area ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled top to bottom. Upgrades and luxury within budget. Granite countertops, subway tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances and beautiful white cabinets in the kitchen. Granite counter, tiled shower and wrap around tile in the bathrooms. All tiled flooring including bedrooms, cozy decorative fireplace in living room, neutral colors inside, New A/C in 2023, New roof in 2022, New water heater in 2024, Inside laundry. One of the few homes in the park with a sturdy shed built on site with concrete slab. In a cul-de-sac with no neighbors behind and more privacy than most homes in this park. Centrally located, walking distance to shopping, restaurants and bus stops. Family Park no age restrictions!

Key facts

• Tiled flooring
• Granite countertops
• Wrap around tile

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILED SHOWER
• WRAP AROUND TILE
• TILED FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $656 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 182 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.49%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,602
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 69.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
555 W Warner Rd #55	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	3mo	$74,955	$68	90
555 W Warner Rd #4	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,065 (+1%)	20mo	$130,000	$122	73
555 W Warner Rd #65	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+3%)	17mo	$112,000	$103	72
1425 N Evergreen St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+8%)	3mo	$295,000	$258	69
555 W Warner Rd #71	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	17mo	$32,500	$34	57
200 E Knox Rd #18	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	12mo	$52,900	$50	53
825 W Calle Del Norte --	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,173 (+11%)	16mo	$349,000	$298	51
200 E Knox Rd #60	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	18mo	$68,900	$65	48
200 E Knox Rd #47	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (-3%)	12mo	$40,000	$39	48
200 E Knox Rd #43	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	990 (-6%)	10mo	$80,000	$81	44
200 E Knox Rd #116	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-7%)	15mo	$6,000	$6	39
200 E Knox Rd #104	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+14%)	4mo	$72,250	$60	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $15,921
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $45,998
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85225

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1970 N Hartford St #62 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,650	$1.45	24d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #4 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	849	$1,650	$1.94	24d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #99 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1098	$1,850	$1.68	5d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #99 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1098	$1,850	$1.68	11d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #4 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	849	$1,650	$1.94	43d	1	0.20mi
822 W Knox Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	4d	1	0.38mi
1351 N Pleasant Dr #2092 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,450	$2.65	43d	1	0.48mi
1351 N Pleasant Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1299	$2,622	$2.02	24d	2	0.56mi
1351 N Pleasant Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5–2.0	1121	$2,535	$2.26	11d	3	0.56mi
98 W Orchid Ln Unit 98-03 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,025	$1.28	43d	1	0.67mi
1287 N Alma School Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,895	$1.96	16d	2	0.71mi
699 W Ray Rd #5 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,149	$1.39	11d	1	0.81mi
300 E Warner Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$1,936	$1.88	2d	28	0.81mi
123 E Corporate Pl Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1285	$3,649	$2.84	5d	91	0.83mi
433 W Ray Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,000	$1.30	43d	1	0.83mi
859 W Ray Rd Apt 3 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	832	$1,050	$1.26	3d	1	0.90mi
859 W Ray Rd Apt 3 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	832	$1,225	$1.47	5d	1	0.90mi
859 W Ray Rd Apt 2 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	832	$1,125	$1.35	18d	1	0.90mi
859 W Ray Rd Apt 2 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	832	$1,125	$1.35	22d	1	0.90mi
510 E Kent Ave Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,190	$1.54	2d	1	1.01mi
250 E Ray Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,080	$1.80	5d	1	1.03mi
250 E Ray Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1073	$3,948	$3.68	19d	11	1.03mi
250 E Ray Rd Unit 2 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,684	$1.48	43d	1	1.05mi
1370 W Gary Dr Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1468	$2,375	$1.62	22d	1	1.10mi
760 N Evergreen St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1219	$2,100	$1.72	12d	1	1.12mi
235 E Ray Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1031	$1,904	$1.85	1d	9	1.19mi
886 W Galveston St #131 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	24d	1	1.30mi
815 E Calle del Norte Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,100	$1.68	5d	1	1.31mi
1817 N Dobson Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$2,105	$2.10	2d	8	1.37mi
1600 N Saba St #163 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	870	$1,550	$1.78	11d	1	1.39mi
1600 N Saba St #115 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	870	$1,368	$1.57	24d	1	1.39mi
501 E Ray Rd Lot 181 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,099	$1.56	43d	1	1.41mi
1320 N McQueen Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	851	$1,387	$1.63	24d	1	1.41mi
1320 N McQueen Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	883	$1,427	$1.62	5d	1	1.41mi
785 N Arrowhead Dr Apt 2 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	981	$1,499	$1.53	24d	1	1.42mi
3033 N Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0–3.0	944	$2,590	$2.74	2d	230	1.42mi
868 E Savannah Dr Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,850	$2.26	2d	1	1.43mi
1825 W Ray Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,850	$2.10	5d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 267 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 265 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 264 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 261 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 258 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 257 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 256 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 253 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 252 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 251 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 250 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 249 DOM
15. 2026-03-02
    price $125,000 709-char remark

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    Remodeled top to bottom. Upgrades and luxury within budget. Granite countertops, subway tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances and beautiful white cabinets in the kitchen. Granite counter, tiled shower and wrap around tile in the bathrooms. All tiled flooring including bedrooms, cozy decorative fireplace in living room, neutral colors inside, New A/C in 2023, New roof in 2022, New water heater in 2024, Inside laundry. One of the few homes in the park with a sturdy shed built on site with concrete slab. In a cul-de-sac with no neighbors behind and more privacy than most homes in this park. Centrally located, walking distance to shopping, restaurants and bus stops. Family Park no age restrictions!

16. 2025-09-17
    listed $130,000 Active 709-char remark

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    Remodeled top to bottom. Upgrades and luxury within budget. Granite countertops, subway tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances and beautiful white cabinets in the kitchen. Granite counter, tiled shower and wrap around tile in the bathrooms. All tiled flooring including bedrooms, cozy decorative fireplace in living room, neutral colors inside, New A/C in 2023, New roof in 2022, New water heater in 2024, Inside laundry. One of the few homes in the park with a sturdy shed built on site with concrete slab. In a cul-de-sac with no neighbors behind and more privacy than most homes in this park. Centrally located, walking distance to shopping, restaurants and bus stops. Family Park no age restrictions!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,847
• − Management: −$1,847
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $6,255
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,501
• After-tax cash flow: $6,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This remodeled mobile home is in good condition with recent upgrades and a good curb appeal. Minor touch-ups and maintenance could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chandler, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 72,297
• Household income: $88,676
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2327.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.25%
• Current HPI: 328.8354
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $130,000 ARMLS