3729 Plaza Way #141 · Pigeon Forge, TN 37863

$299,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,272 sqft · Townhouse · 140 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition $236/sqft · 16% below area Est $358k · 16% under $475/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3729 Plaza Way, Unit 141 is a single unit located within a townhome community located in Pigeon Forge, TN, directly adjacent to Dollywood. The property currently operates as short-term rentals but offers multiple use options, including continued vacation rental operations, conversion to traditional apartments, or individual sale as condominium units. This unit is a two-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath townhome with recent renovations of higher end finishes. The unit features a washer and dryer, fireplace, and private balcony. The community includes a firepit and grilling area, as well as shared ownership in an adjacent HOA that provides access to the clubhouse and indoor swimming pool.

Key facts

• Private balcony
• $475 HOA
• Community pool

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• FIREPIT AND GRILLING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-319 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 1.1% in Pigeon Forge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#36 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 331 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,704 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,558
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -16.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3690 Plaza Way #131	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,272 (0%)	6mo	$265,000	$208	92
3690 Plaza Way #136	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,200 (-6%)	17mo	$280,000	$233	73
830 Golf View Blvd Unit 3212	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-10%)	1mo	$350,000	$304	66
830 Golf View Blvd Unit 3106	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,390 (+9%)	7mo	$385,000	$277	61
820 Golf View Blvd #2303	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-13%)	6mo	$390,000	$353	55
818 Golf View Blvd #1502	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-13%)	5mo	$310,000	$281	55
830 Golf View Blvd Unit 3101	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-10%)	22mo	$390,000	$339	48
830 Golf View Blvd #3202	0.34mi	2/2.5	1,452 (+14%)	22mo	$365,000	$251	42
3621 Householder St Apt 3	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,103 (-13%)	13mo	$390,000	$354	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-68,596
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-84,555
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37863

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,821 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$475
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,225

Max offer price $253,704

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-112	-5% $-216	+0% $-319	+5% $-423	+10% $-527
Rent	-10% $-542	-5% $-431	+0% $-319	+5% $-208	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-168	-0.5pp $-243	base $-319	+0.5pp $-397	+1.0pp $-476

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
818 Golf View Blvd #1303 Pigeon Forge, TN	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,500	$2.26	44d	1	0.39mi
770 Marshall Acrs St Pigeon Forge, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0	688	$1,825	$2.65	44d	15	0.54mi
1748 Paulas Huskey Cir Sevierville, TN	3.0	2.5	1276	$4,200	$3.29	44d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $475 · $5,700/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,900 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-01-30
    listed $299,900 Active 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    3729 Plaza Way, Unit 141 is a single unit located within a townhome community located in Pigeon Forge, TN, directly adjacent to Dollywood. The property currently operates as short-term rentals but offers multiple use options, including continued vacation rental operations, conversion to traditional apartments, or individual sale as condominium units. This unit is a two-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath townhome with recent renovations of higher end finishes. The unit features a washer and dryer, fireplace, and private balcony. The community includes a firepit and grilling area, as well as shared ownership in an adjacent HOA that provides access to the clubhouse and indoor swimming pool.

17. 2026-01-30
    listed $299,900 Active 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    3729 Plaza Way, Unit 141 is a single unit located within a townhome community located in Pigeon Forge, TN, directly adjacent to Dollywood. The property currently operates as short-term rentals but offers multiple use options, including continued vacation rental operations, conversion to traditional apartments, or individual sale as condominium units. This unit is a two-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath townhome with recent renovations of higher end finishes. The unit features a washer and dryer, fireplace, and private balcony. The community includes a firepit and grilling area, as well as shared ownership in an adjacent HOA that provides access to the clubhouse and indoor swimming pool.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,708
• − Management: −$2,708
• − HOA: −$5,700
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$8,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,109
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and recently renovated townhome is ready for immediate occupancy and offers a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Modernizing the common areas — Improves rental appeal and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Modernizing the common areas — Improves rental appeal and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Pigeon Forge

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #6327

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pigeon Forge, TN
• City population: 21,767
• Population (ZIP): 6,469

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Arab 4% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.78%
• Current HPI: 302.7183
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $299,900 GSMAR
• 2026-01-30 Listed $299,900 Knoxville MLS