438-440 Lily St · San Francisco, CA 94102

$650,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1900 1,237 sqft lot Est $819k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Duplex located on quiet tree-lined street in the desirable Lower Haight neighborhood. Fully occupied, long term tenants. Building consists of a 1BD/1BA unit and a 2BD/1BA unit totaling approximately 1,560 SF. Both units offer spacious layouts, high ceilings, and classic period details. Current rents are below market, presenting a significant value-add opportunity. Excellent location in Lower Haight, near Hayes Valley, public transportation, dining, retail, and major employment centers.

Key facts

• Spacious layouts
• High ceilings
• 1,237 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO UNIT MULTIFAMILY PROPERTY
• QUIET TREE LINED STREET
• SPACIOUS LAYOUTS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• CLASSIC PERIOD DETAILS
• VALUE ADD OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two-unit property with 2 leased units
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Gas on a separate meter; Electric on a separate meter
• Home design: Residential income duplex; Two-story building; One building on the lot
• Construction: Built in 1900; Wood construction with wood siding; Flat roof; Concrete and masonry perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Unit 1: 1 bed, 1 bath; Unit 2: 2 bed, 1 bath
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (total)
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating
• Interior features: Wall furnace heating; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($52k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $650k).
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.1%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $11,121/mo this rent would consume 221% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 3769% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $650,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.31%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $819,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1048-1050 Oak St	0.46mi	6/—	1,380 (-12%)	6mo	$725,000	$525	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.8% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $474,711
• Equity at exit: $360,362

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.38×
• Total profit: $1,343,711
• Equity at exit: $615,433

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94102

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Rents YoY: 10.1%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,121 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$812 /mo · $9,750/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,335
• Net cashflow: $4,294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,686

Max offer price $650,000

Occupancy floor 56%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$11,122
Total (2 units)			$11,121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $650,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $650,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $650,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $650,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 490-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $650,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $133,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$9,750
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,676
• − Management: −$10,676
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable income: $43,780
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,507
• After-tax cash flow: $41,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,976
• Household income: $60,431
• Rent vs Own: 92.0% rent · 8.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3769.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: White 31% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 41% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 16% Chinese 10% Vietnamese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.80%
• Current HPI: 184.4403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $650,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $280 · +30.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.