22241-#63 Nisqually #63 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$154,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2002 $115/sqft · 5% below area Est $160k · at est. $845/mo HOA · 42% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Mobil home in 55+ community 3 bedrooms 2 full baths Formal living room open kitchen with island for extra storage. Nice dining area open to family room. Indoor laundry room, Single car garage deep to back covered patio and workshop. 2 car parking in front and guest parking across the street. Park is beautifully maintained. Space 63 in back part of park.

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 2002

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (18.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $154k implies a 584% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,288 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,604
• List price: $154,000
• Delta: -3.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22241 Nisqually Rd #38	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$175,000	$130	94
22241 Nisqually #125	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-2%)	4mo	$110,000	$84	92
22241 Nisqually Rd #169	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+4%)	3mo	$140,000	$101	92
22241 Nisqually Rd #154	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-2%)	13mo	$163,000	$123	86
22241 Nisqually Rd #35	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-9%)	10mo	$159,000	$130	77
22241 Nisqually Rd #153	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	4mo	$176,000	$116	76
22241 Nisqually Rd #19	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-8%)	15mo	$90,000	$73	74
22020 Nisqually Rd #3	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	3mo	$101,000	$81	74
22241 Nisqually Rd #33	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+14%)	10mo	$198,000	$129	68
22241 Nisqually Rd #158	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+15%)	11mo	$203,200	$132	66
22241 Nisqually Rd #16	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-12%)	15mo	$120,000	$102	62
21922 Ottowa Rd #1	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,148 (-15%)	4mo	$65,000	$57	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-31,806
• Equity at exit: $22,962

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-27,399
• Equity at exit: $13,315

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $484/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$845
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,224

Max offer price $126,288

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12406 Pawnee Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1488	$2,200	$1.48	16d	1	0.68mi
13073 Navajo Rd Unit A Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	24d	1	0.68mi
22526 Sioux Rd Unit 12 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.5	930	$1,495	$1.61	1d	1	0.77mi
22544 Sioux Rd Unit 31 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,795	$1.45	19d	1	0.78mi
13192 Navajo Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	944	$1,850	$1.96	43d	1	0.80mi
13192 Navajo Rd #3 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	944	$1,795	$1.90	24d	1	0.82mi
22873 Ottawa Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,000	$1.30	43d	1	1.00mi
13116 Mohawk Rd Apt 2 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,800	$2.06	5d	1	1.17mi
13207 Franceska Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.0	1440	$2,200	$1.53	1d	1	1.18mi
21256 Vidal Ct Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,550	$1.65	43d	1	1.21mi
21490 Bear Valley Rd Apt A Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,595	$1.82	20d	1	1.26mi
13584 Yakima Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	930	$1,568	$1.69	24d	1	1.26mi
22854 Itasca Rd Apple Valley, CA	4.0	2.0	1814	$1,995	$1.10	21d	1	1.28mi
22039 Biloxi Ave Unit 2-3 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	43d	1	1.30mi
19142 California 18 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	43d	1	1.32mi
13464 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	937	$1,799	$1.92	18d	1	1.36mi
21061 Nisqually Rd Unit C Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,750	$1.71	43d	1	1.44mi
21018 Little Beaver Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,800	$2.45	5d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $845 · $10,140/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $154,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-02-26
    listed $169,000 Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Beautiful Mobil home in 55+ community 3 bedrooms 2 full baths Formal living room open kitchen with island for extra storage. Nice dining area open to family room. Indoor laundry room, Single car garage deep to back covered patio and workshop. 2 car parking in front and guest parking across the street. Park is beautifully maintained. Space 63 in back part of park.

16. 2013-06-26
    soldstatus $22,500 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Lovely three bedroom manufactured Home in secure, gated Vista Del Rosa, a 55plus active community with amenities that include pool, spa, clubhouse, social events and onsite management. Nice upgrades. Conveniently located to shopping, medical, and entertainment. Space rent covers utilities. # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: Cable TVAUTS, PART FireplaceFeatures: None Pool Features: Common Pool Zoning: Residential 1 # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 0 # of RV Spaces: 0

17. 2013-02-19
    listed $24,900 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Lovely three bedroom manufactured Home in secure, gated Vista Del Rosa, a 55plus active community with amenities that include pool, spa, clubhouse, social events and onsite management. Nice upgrades. Conveniently located to shopping, medical, and entertainment. Space rent covers utilities. # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: Cable TVAUTS, PART FireplaceFeatures: None Pool Features: Common Pool Zoning: Residential 1 # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 0 # of RV Spaces: 0

18. 2005-06-03
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,170 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$687/yr (+$57/mo · 142.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥100°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$484
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − HOA: −$10,140
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable loss: −$4,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$980
• After-tax cash flow: $-903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+61.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $169,000 CRMLS
• 2013-06-26 Sold (MLS) $22,500 CRMLS
• 2013-02-19 Listed $24,900 CRMLS
• 2005-06-03 Sold (MLS) $105,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $484 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.