440 N 4th St · Allentown, PA 18102

$179,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · Townhouse public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1893 1,540 sqft lot $118/sqft · at area comps Est $185k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this great investment opportunity. Large 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath house. Nice covered rear patio area for entertaining and off street parking. Gas heat system replaced in 2021. Newer gas water heater. Tenants pay all utilities. Rent has room to increase.

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Covered rear patio
• Gas heat system

Tags

• COVERED REAR PATIO
• OFF STREET PARKING
• GAS HEAT SYSTEM
• NEWER GAS WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.3% in Allentown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#171 in PA, #1,440 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D.
• Allentown City SD (urban): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #513 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,128/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 4313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $180k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1893 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,201 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1893 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.46%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,308
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -2.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
389 W Gordon St	0.09mi	5/1.5	1,668 (+10%)	1mo	$215,000	$129	76
613 W Allen St	0.29mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,480 (-3%)	1mo	$220,000	$149	74
534 W Cedar St	0.42mi	5/1.5	1,578 (+4%)	2mo	$255,000	$162	70
622 Park St	0.33mi	5/1.5	1,638 (+8%)	1mo	$210,000	$128	69
408 N 2nd St	0.33mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,380 (-9%)	0mo	$202,500	$147	62
318 N Lumber	0.52mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	2mo	$132,000	$92	61
213 Chew St	0.35mi	5/1.0	1,725 (+14%)	3mo	$243,000	$141	59
623 Park St	0.31mi	5/2.0	1,746 (+15%)	1mo	$182,000	$104	56
634 N New St	0.65mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,391 (-8%)	2mo	$216,000	$155	49
215 N 10th St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,590 (+5%)	1mo	$267,000	$168	49
816 W Allen St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,328 (-13%)	0mo	$165,000	$124	47
736 N Lumber St	0.58mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,330 (-12%)	2mo	$196,000	$147	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $9,575
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $74,637
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18102

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,128 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,679/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,466

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $625	-5% $574	+0% $523	+5% $472	+10% $421
Rent	-10% $355	-5% $439	+0% $523	+5% $607	+10% $691
Rate	-1.0pp $614	-0.5pp $569	base $523	+0.5pp $476	+1.0pp $429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
432 N Law St Allentown, PA	4.0	1.0	1328	$1,500	$1.13	14d	1	0.19mi
535 Tilghman St Unit 2ND Allentown, PA	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	3d	1	0.28mi
389 W Turner St Allentown, PA	4.0	1.5	2144	$2,400	$1.12	3d	1	0.31mi
622 Park St Allentown, PA	5.0	1.5	1638	$2,300	$1.40	3d	1	0.32mi
631 W Allen St Allentown, PA	5.0	1.5	1695	$2,100	$1.24	44d	1	0.32mi
213 Chew St Allentown, PA	5.0	1.0	1725	$2,100	$1.22	44d	1	0.36mi
164 W Tilghman St Allentown, PA	5.0	2.0	1801	$2,250	$1.25	24d	1	0.44mi
913 N 6th St Allentown, PA	4.0	1.0	1476	$1,698	$1.15	14d	1	0.50mi
208 Ridge Ave Allentown, PA	4.0	1.0	1396	$1,600	$1.15	3d	1	0.52mi
208 Ridge Ave Allentown, PA	4.0	1.0	1396	$1,700	$1.22	24d	1	0.52mi
828 W Gordon St Allentown, PA	4.0	2.5	1628	$2,250	$1.38	3d	1	0.52mi
738 W Cedar St Allentown, PA	5.0	1.5	1900	$2,500	$1.32	44d	1	0.54mi
814 Washington St #2 Allentown, PA	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	3d	1	0.56mi
630 N Front St Allentown, PA	4.0	1.0	1912	$1,900	$0.99	24d	1	0.56mi
111 Ridge Ave Allentown, PA	4.0	1.0	1658	$1,650	$1.00	44d	1	0.59mi
1304 N 4th St Allentown, PA	5.0	2.0	1891	$2,900	$1.53	44d	1	0.59mi
823 W Washington St Allentown, PA	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	14d	1	0.59mi
856 N 8th St Allentown, PA	5.0	1.5	1499	$1,975	$1.32	19d	1	0.61mi
1111 Fullerton Ave Allentown, PA	5.0	1.5	1670	$2,200	$1.32	44d	1	0.79mi
626 N 11th St Allentown, PA	4.0	1.5	1642	$2,200	$1.34	3d	1	0.82mi
948 W Maple St Allentown, PA	4.0	1.0	1932	$2,300	$1.19	44d	1	0.87mi
1338 W Liberty St Allentown, PA	4.0	1.0	1526	$2,000	$1.31	14d	1	1.10mi
450 Hanover Ave Allentown, PA	5.0	1.0	1692	$2,200	$1.30	24d	1	1.12mi
1348 W Liberty St Allentown, PA	5.0	1.0	1561	$1,900	$1.22	24d	1	1.12mi
1341 Chew St Allentown, PA	5.0	1.5	2139	$2,500	$1.17	21d	1	1.13mi
36 S Jefferson St Allentown, PA	5.0	1.5	2128	$2,500	$1.17	14d	1	1.14mi
144 S 12th St Allentown, PA	4.0	2.0	1242	$2,000	$1.61	3d	1	1.15mi
1455 W Tilghman St Allentown, PA	4.0	1.5	1520	$1,850	$1.22	44d	1	1.26mi
41 S Franklin St Allentown, PA	5.0	2.0	1897	$2,500	$1.32	14d	1	1.32mi
1538 Chew St Allentown, PA	5.0	1.0	1874	$2,800	$1.49	19d	1	1.35mi
216 S 14th St Allentown, PA	4.0	1.5	1640	$2,300	$1.40	3d	1	1.36mi
1542 Walnut St Apt 2 Allentown, PA	4.0	1.0	1132	$1,850	$1.63	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Don't miss out on this great investment opportunity. Large 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath house. Nice covered rear patio area for entertaining and off street parking. Gas heat system replaced in 2021. Newer gas water heater. Tenants pay all utilities. Rent has room to increase.

2. 2026-04-20
   listed $179,900 Active 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   Don't miss out on this great investment opportunity. Large 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath house. Nice covered rear patio area for entertaining and off street parking. Gas heat system replaced in 2021. Newer gas water heater. Tenants pay all utilities. Rent has room to increase.

3. 2025-12-22
   historical
4. 2025-11-15
   price $189,900
5. 2025-10-03
   price $199,900
6. 2025-09-10
   listed $220,000 Active
7. 2018-06-05
   soldstatus $50,000
8. 2018-06-01
   soldstatus $50,000 Sold
9. 2018-04-17
   status Pending
10. 2018-03-12
    listed $85,000 Active
11. 2011-03-28
    soldstatus $30,000
12. 2010-11-16
    listed $35,000
13. 2007-12-05
    historical
14. 2007-08-01
    historical
15. 2007-08-01
    listed $94,900
16. 2007-05-01
    listed $94,900
17. 2007-05-01
    historical
18. 2007-01-09
    listed $94,900
19. 2005-12-07
    soldstatus $51,700
20. 2004-08-11
    soldstatus $30,000
21. 2000-07-28
    soldstatus $33,000
22. 2000-07-27
    soldstatus $33,000
23. 1999-12-16
    listed $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,679 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,261 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$582/yr (+$48/mo · 34.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,679
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
• − Management: −$2,043
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $3,562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$855
• After-tax cash flow: $5,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allentown City SD
• NCES district ID: 4202280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,337
• Composite: 12.43/100
• National rank: #9630
• State rank: #513 of 539 in PA

Livability — Allentown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #1440

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Allentown, PA
• County: Lehigh County · 333,019 people
• City population: 172,996
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 51,001
• Household income: $43,085
• Rent vs Own: 67.9% rent · 32.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4313.0

Population outlook (Lehigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,957 people
• By 2030: 408,319 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 440,007 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 475,940 · +21.1%
• By 2075: 590,448 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 690,314 · +75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 28% White 18% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 38% Dominican 22%
• Common ancestry: Polish 1% Romanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 52% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lehigh

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 2.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.7 2020: D+7.6 2016: D+4.4 2012: D+7.5 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.01%
• Current HPI: 404.834
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+415.5% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $179,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $189,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $199,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $220,000 GLVRMLS
• 2018-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-01 Sold (MLS) $50,000 GLVRMLS
• 2018-04-17 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2018-03-12 Listed $85,000 GLVRMLS
• 2011-03-28 Sold (MLS) $30,000 GLVRMLS
• 2010-11-16 Listed $35,000 GLVRMLS
• 2007-12-05 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2007-08-01 Listed $94,900 GLVRMLS
• 2007-08-01 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2007-05-01 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2007-05-01 Listed $94,900 GLVRMLS
• 2007-01-09 Listed $94,900 GLVRMLS
• 2005-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $51,700 Public Records
• 2004-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-27 Sold (MLS) $33,000 GLVRMLS
• 1999-12-16 Listed $34,900 GLVRMLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,679 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.