4449 Beach Dr E #22 · Manchester, WA 98366

$69,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 854 sqft · Manufactured · 72 Days on market

Built 1977 Fair condition $81/sqft · 81% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in a highly desired park on Beach Drive, this charming home offers spectacular views of the Puget Sound and a peaceful coastal lifestyle. Start your mornings in the sunroom, sipping coffee while taking in the beautiful water views and ever-changing scenery. This cute 2-bedroom home feels like stepping into a mid-century time capsule, full of character and nostalgic charm as if time stood still. It has been lovingly maintained and offers a unique opportunity to enjoy it just as it is or update it to your personal style. Outside, you’ll find a low-maintenance yard, perfect for easy living and more time spent enjoying the view. Two storage sheds provide extra space for tools, hob

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Sunroom
• Storage sheds

Tags

• SUNROOM
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD
• STORAGE SHEDS
• WATERFRONT-AREA LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $831 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.7% vs local median 2.8% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#369 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• South Kitsap School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 291 in WA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,294 units permitted in Kitsap County in 2024 (302 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kitsap County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $64,859 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.61%
• DSCR: 3.30
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,446
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -80.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4449 Beach Dr E #12	0.01mi	2/2.0	924 (+8%)	23mo	$59,000	$64	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $37,470
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $84,146
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98366

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $831

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $879	-5% $855	+0% $831	+5% $807	+10% $783
Rent	-10% $700	-5% $766	+0% $831	+5% $896	+10% $962
Rate	-1.0pp $866	-0.5pp $849	base $831	+0.5pp $813	+1.0pp $795

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1357 Jacobsen Blvd Bremerton, WA	1.0	1.0	528	$1,300	$2.46	14d	1	1.32mi
1628 Trenton Ave Bremerton, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,550	$1.94	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $69,000 Pending 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $69,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $69,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $69,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $69,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-03-31
    status Active
11. 2026-03-31
    status Pending
12. 2026-03-27
    listed $69,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $9,435
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,264
• After-tax cash flow: $7,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This charming 2-bedroom home offers a unique opportunity to update its dated interior and exterior to modernize and enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — Severe wear and outdated style
• Major bathroom cabinets — Severe wear and outdated style
• Major flooring — Carpeted floors in living areas
• Moderate exterior siding — Aged appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Replace bathroom cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring improves comfort and appearance
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Severe wear and outdated style	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom cabinets · Severe wear and outdated style	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Carpeted floors in living areas	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Aged appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$48,000–165,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Kitsap School District
• NCES district ID: 5308160
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $62,824
• Composite: 52.31/100
• National rank: #3445
• State rank: #71 of 291 in WA

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #369
• US rank: #14098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kitsap County · 243,099 people
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• Population (ZIP): 36,965
• Household income: $92,011
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Kitsap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 277,525 people
• By 2030: 285,040 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 294,957 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 300,622 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 315,580 · +13.7%
• By 2100: 304,340 · +9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kitsap

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.9) · D 58.8% · R 37.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.9 2020: D+18.1 2016: D+11.6 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -432.79%
• Current HPI: 354.2856
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.35%
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $69,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid