1127 Dorton Hill Rd · Jenkins, KY 41537

$55,000

2 bd · 100.0 ba · 1,195 sqft · Other · 37 Days on market

Poor condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

PVA Estimated 9.5 acres with multiple flats. New concrete septic tank and system. Two electric poles on site. Access to City Water. 1.2 Miles from Hillbilly Trails Dorton Trailhead.

Key facts

• 9.5 acres
• Multiple flats
• Concrete septic tank

Tags

• 9.5 ACRES
• MULTIPLE FLATS
• CONCRETE SEPTIC TANK
• ELECTRIC POLES
• CITY WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/100.0-bath other listed at $55k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#424 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.82%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $21,502
• Equity at exit: $11,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $56,863
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41537

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $55,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $60,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $60,000 Active 181-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$989
• − Management: −$989
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,607
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,106
• After-tax cash flow: $4,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property is in a poor condition with extensive repairs and maintenance needed, including a new septic system, landscaping, and interior and exterior repairs. Significant value can be added through these improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major Concrete septic tank and system — New concrete septic tank and system are mentioned in the listing remarks, but the satellite image does not confirm the condition of the tank or system.

Value-add opportunities

• Both New septic system — A new septic system is a critical component for property value and is a major upgrade.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal can significantly enhance the property's resale and rental value.
• Both Interior and exterior repairs — Addressing the poor condition of the interior and exterior will improve the property's overall appearance and functionality.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Concrete septic tank and system · New concrete septic tank and system are mentioned in the listing remarks, but the satellite image does not confirm the condition of the tank or system.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New septic system — A new septic system is a critical component for property value and is a major upgrade. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal can significantly enhance the property's resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior and exterior repairs — Addressing the poor condition of the interior and exterior will improve the property's overall appearance and functionality. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Jenkins

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #424
• US rank: #20457

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 148
• Population (ZIP): 3,177

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Current HPI: 152.8516
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $55,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $60,000 FSBO.com