414 Lake Ave · Franklin, OH 45005

$172,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,668 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1800 $103/sqft · 10% below area Est $191k · 10% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful two story house. Feels like your taking a step back in time. Tall ceilings and some hardwood floors. Located in the center of Franklin. Just minutes from schools, parks, and the interstate. Enclosed front porch that gets ton of light. Huge living room and great room. Partially updated kitchen. Also has a big entry/mud room in the rear with a full bath off of it. Three good sized bedrooms upstairs with another full bathroom. Back porch to go along with a big back yard and a two car detached garage. Being sold AS-IS. Room sizes are estimated. Seller will make not repairs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1800
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Franklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#396 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Franklin City (suburban): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #332 of 656 in OH (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1800 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,487 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1800 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,105
• List price: $172,000
• Delta: -10.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 S River St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+1%)	9mo	$177,900	$106	76
533 Spring Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	0mo	$230,000	$158	71
10 S River St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,840 (+10%)	11mo	$185,000	$101	57
103 Warren Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-8%)	10mo	$140,000	$91	50
210 N Riley Blvd	0.46mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,472 (-12%)	4mo	$40,000	$27	49
11 W Third St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,512 (-9%)	16mo	$185,000	$122	44
761 S Main St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,747 (+5%)	20mo	$197,000	$113	44
219 Allen St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-6%)	20mo	$197,940	$127	42
315 E Fourth St	0.75mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,482 (-11%)	18mo	$249,000	$168	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-32,068
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-27,170
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45005

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,618 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$404 /mo · $4,847/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,744

Max offer price $154,487

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-50	+0% $-99	+5% $-148	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-227	-5% $-163	+0% $-99	+5% $-35	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-55	base $-99	+0.5pp $-144	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
448 Park Dr Carlisle, OH	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	2d	1	1.27mi
381 Sherman Dr Franklin, OH	3.0	3.5	1344	$1,995	$1.48	24d	1	1.40mi
1 Deardoff Rd Franklin, OH	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,550	$1.24	17d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $172,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $172,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $172,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $172,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $182,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $182,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $182,000 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Beautiful two story house. Feels like your taking a step back in time. Tall ceilings and some hardwood floors. Located in the center of Franklin. Just minutes from schools, parks, and the interstate. Enclosed front porch that gets ton of light. Huge living room and great room. Partially updated kitchen. Also has a big entry/mud room in the rear with a full bath off of it. Three good sized bedrooms upstairs with another full bathroom. Back porch to go along with a big back yard and a two car detached garage. Being sold AS-IS. Room sizes are estimated. Seller will make not repairs.

16. 2026-04-16
    listed $182,000 Active 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    Beautiful two story house. Feels like your taking a step back in time. Tall ceilings and some hardwood floors. Located in the center of Franklin. Just minutes from schools, parks, and the interstate. Enclosed front porch that gets ton of light. Huge living room and great room. Partially updated kitchen. Also has a big entry/mud room in the rear with a full bath off of it. Three good sized bedrooms upstairs with another full bathroom. Back porch to go along with a big back yard and a two car detached garage. Being sold AS-IS. Room sizes are estimated. Seller will make not repairs.

17. 2024-01-23
    soldstatus $207,000
18. 2024-01-19
    soldstatus $207,000 Sold
19. 2024-01-19
    soldstatus $207,000 Closed
20. 2024-01-19
    soldstatus $207,000 Closed
21. 2023-12-17
    historical Active/Pending
22. 2023-12-17
    status Pending
23. 2023-11-27
    price $200,000
24. 2023-11-27
    status Active
25. 2023-11-27
    status Active
26. 2023-11-27
    price $200,000
27. 2023-11-14
    status Pending
28. 2023-11-14
    status Pending
29. 2023-11-02
    price $214,000
30. 2023-11-02
    price $214,000
31. 2023-10-06
    listed $220,000 Active
32. 2023-10-06
    listed $220,000 Active
33. 2018-10-05
    soldstatus $145,000
34. 2018-10-02
    soldstatus $144,900 Closed
35. 2018-10-02
    soldstatus $144,900 Sold
36. 2018-10-02
    soldstatus $144,900 Sold
37. 2018-08-23
    historical Accept Backup Offers
38. 2018-08-23
    historical Active/Pending
39. 2018-08-19
    listed $144,900 Active
40. 2018-08-19
    listed $144,900 Active
41. 2017-05-19
    soldstatus $38,000 Sold
42. 2017-05-11
    historical Accept Backup Offers
43. 2017-04-07
    price $40,000
44. 2017-03-02
    price $44,900
45. 2017-01-30
    listed $49,900 Active
46. 2016-06-15
    historical
47. 2016-06-15
    historical
48. 2016-01-11
    price $68,000
49. 2016-01-11
    price $68,000
50. 2015-12-15
    price $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,847 · $404/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,847 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$4,847
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable loss: −$4,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$968
• After-tax cash flow: $-222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin City
• NCES district ID: 3904400
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,983
• Composite: 48.89/100
• National rank: #2081
• State rank: #332 of 656 in OH

Livability — Franklin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #6546

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Franklin, OH
• County: Warren County · 196,906 people
• City population: 32,251
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 32,251
• Household income: $75,399
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.03%
• Current HPI: 235.1612
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.20%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+487.1% since first listed

49 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $182,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $182,000 Dayton MLS
• 2024-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $207,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-19 Sold (MLS) $207,000 Cincy MLS
• 2024-01-19 Sold (MLS) $207,000 Dayton MLS
• 2024-01-19 Sold (MLS) $207,000 Dayton MLS
• 2023-12-17 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2023-12-17 Pending — Cincy MLS
• 2023-11-27 Price Changed $200,000 Dayton MLS
• 2023-11-27 Relisted — Cincy MLS
• 2023-11-27 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2023-11-27 Price Changed $200,000 Cincy MLS
• 2023-11-14 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2023-11-14 Pending — Cincy MLS
• 2023-11-02 Price Changed $214,000 Dayton MLS
• 2023-11-02 Price Changed $214,000 Cincy MLS
• 2023-10-06 Listed $220,000 Cincy MLS
• 2023-10-06 Listed $220,000 Dayton MLS
• 2018-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-02 Sold (MLS) $144,900 Cincy MLS
• 2018-10-02 Sold (MLS) $144,900 Dayton MLS
• 2018-10-02 Sold (MLS) $144,900 Dayton MLS
• 2018-08-23 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2018-08-23 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2018-08-19 Listed $144,900 Cincy MLS
• 2018-08-19 Listed $144,900 Dayton MLS
• 2017-05-19 Sold (MLS) $38,000 Cincy MLS
• 2017-05-11 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2017-04-07 Price Changed $40,000 Cincy MLS
• 2017-03-02 Price Changed $44,900 Cincy MLS
• 2017-01-30 Listed $49,900 Cincy MLS
• 2016-06-15 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2016-06-15 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2016-01-11 Price Changed $68,000 Dayton MLS
• 2016-01-11 Price Changed $68,000 Cincy MLS
• 2015-12-15 Price Changed $70,000 Dayton MLS
• 2015-12-15 Price Changed $70,000 Cincy MLS
• 2015-12-03 Listed $78,000 Cincy MLS
• 2015-12-03 Listed $78,000 Dayton MLS
• 2013-03-13 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2012-05-13 Listed $79,900 Cincy MLS
• 2006-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2006-01-31 Sold (MLS) $49,900 Cincy MLS
• 2005-07-26 Listed $59,900 Cincy MLS
• 2002-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 2000-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 1987-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records
• 1987-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 1984-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,847 · +52.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.