2822 SE Briar Hill Ln SE · Conyers, GA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $963 – $1,789
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 105°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 17 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 27.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 5 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 7 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Rent growth +2.2/5.0
- Schools +1.9/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$69,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Very clean building! Ready for your design and special touch. Can easily be converted into 1-3 bedrooms. One-car garage. Spacious upstairs loft. Level, wooded backyard.
Key facts
- 0.39 acre lot
- Garage
- Built 1984
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a other listed at $69k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $703 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
- Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 4.4% in Conyers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 67/100 on livability (#167 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities D.
- Rockdale County (suburban): math 14% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #136 of 174 in GA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 377 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 483 units permitted in Rockdale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Rockdale County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $52k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.22% ✓
- Cap rate
- 18.52%
- Cash-on-cash
- 43.65%
- DSCR
- 2.94
- GRM
- 3.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $300,161
- List price
- $69,000
- Delta
- -77.01%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 1 within 2.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 37.0%
- Equity multiple
- 2.51×
- Total profit
- $29,132
- Equity at exit
- $10,288
- IRR
- 42.1%
- Equity multiple
- 4.41×
- Total profit
- $65,823
- Equity at exit
- $5,966
Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Georgia
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 30013
- Home prices YoY
- -29.5%
- Rents YoY
- -1.3%
- Active inventory
- 377
- Price-to-rent
- 3.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,532 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$362
- Tax from tax record
- −$117 /mo · $1,403/yr
- Insurance
- −$29
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$322
- Net cashflow
- $703
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $742 | -5% $722 | +0% $703 | +5% $683 | +10% $664 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $582 | -5% $642 | +0% $703 | +5% $763 | +10% $824 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $738 | -0.5pp $720 | base $703 | +0.5pp $685 | +1.0pp $667 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $17,250
- Closing costs
- $2,070
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2206 Country Club Dr SE Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1723 | $1,950 | $1.13 | 25d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 2644 Fieldstone View Ln SE Unit B Conyers, GA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1296 | $1,350 | $1.04 | 20d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 2644 Fieldstone View Ln SE Unit C Conyers, GA | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1296 | $1,350 | $1.04 | 45d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 2644 Fieldstone View Ln SE Apt A Conyers, GA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1296 | $1,450 | $1.12 | 45d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 2638 Fieldstone View Ln SE Unit D Conyers, GA | 2.0 | 2.0 | — | $1,195 | — | 25d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 2784 Coventry Grn SE Unit c Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1305 | $1,595 | $1.22 | 0d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 2783 Coventry Grn SE Unit b Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1328 | $1,575 | $1.19 | 0d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 2782 Country Ct SE Unit B Conyers, GA | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1218 | $1,340 | $1.10 | 0d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 2782 Country Ct SE Unit B Conyers, GA | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1218 | $1,340 | $1.10 | 25d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 2785 Country Ct SE Unit c Conyers, GA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $850 | $1.06 | 6d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 2120 Fieldstone View Ct SE Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1600 | $1,700 | $1.06 | 25d | 1 | 0.34mi |
| 2130 Fieldstone View Ct SE Unit B Conyers, GA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1322 | $1,325 | $1.00 | 45d | 1 | 0.34mi |
| 2136 Golfview Dr SE Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1200 | $1,800 | $1.50 | 45d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 2611 Golfview Ter SE Unit 2611 Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 1.5 | — | $1,250 | — | 23d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 219 Beam Dr Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1879 | $2,212 | $1.18 | 45d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 267 Limestone Cir Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1770 | $1,295 | $0.73 | 25d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 267 Limestone Cir Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1770 | $1,500 | $0.85 | 23d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 2591 Golfview Ter SE Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1496 | $1,700 | $1.14 | 45d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 2387 Country Club Dr SE Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1700 | $1,545 | $0.91 | 0d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 2112 Fairway Ct SE Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1150 | $1,725 | $1.50 | 6d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 30 Gross Lake Pkwy Covington, GA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1119 | $1,599 | $1.43 | 45d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 30 Gross Lake Pkwy Covington, GA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1119 | $1,619 | $1.45 | 25d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 50 Salem Chase Way Conyers, GA | 1.0–3.0 | 1.5–2.0 | 1019 | $1,362 | $1.34 | 6d | 2 | 0.60mi |
| 50 Greenleaf Rd Conyers, GA | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 970 | $1,482 | $1.53 | 3d | 29 | 0.62mi |
| 125 Lakeview Trl Covington, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1548 | $1,495 | $0.97 | 45d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 15 Lakeside Cir Covington, GA | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1222 | $1,575 | $1.29 | 45d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 3080 Lakeside Cir Covington, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1508 | $1,681 | $1.11 | 0d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 130 Avondale Blvd SE Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1770 | $2,049 | $1.16 | 45d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 145 Meadowridge Dr Covington, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1708 | $1,790 | $1.05 | 3d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 155 Meadowridge Dr Covington, GA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1300 | $1,615 | $1.24 | 6d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 175 Meadowridge Dr Covington, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1508 | $1,719 | $1.14 | 4d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 50 Loch Haven Dr SE Conyers, GA | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1146 | $1,578 | $1.38 | 3d | 88 | 0.83mi |
| 215 Colser Dr Covington, GA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1549 | $2,175 | $1.40 | 5d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 269 Limestone Cir Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1500 | $1,100 | $0.73 | 18d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 2876 Fieldstone Dr SE Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2205 | $1,706 | $0.77 | 25d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 345 Lakeside Cir Covington, GA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1410 | $1,526 | $1.08 | 0d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 127 Avondale Blvd Conyers, GA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2277 | $2,150 | $0.94 | 6d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 100 Salem Glen Way Conyers, GA | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0–2.5 | 1101 | $1,350 | $1.23 | 3d | 7 | 0.94mi |
| 305 Barshay Dr Covington, GA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1660 | $1,785 | $1.08 | 0d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 625 Lakeside Cir Covington, GA | 3.0 | 2.5 | — | $1,850 | — | 45d | 1 | 0.95mi |
Listing history 19 events
-
2026-06-02status $69,000 Under Contract 143 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $69,000 Active 143 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $69,000 Active 142 DOM
-
2026-05-14price $69,000 171-char remark
Show marketing remark (171 chars)
Very clean building! Ready for your design and special touch. Can easily be converted into 1-3 bedrooms. One-car garage. Spacious upstairs loft. Level, wooded backyard.
-
2026-01-08$74,990 New 171-char remark
Show marketing remark (171 chars)
Very clean building! Ready for your design and special touch. Can easily be converted into 1-3 bedrooms. One-car garage. Spacious upstairs loft. Level, wooded backyard.
-
2025-03-18soldstatus $52,000 Closed 164-char remark
Show marketing remark (164 chars)
**Perfect for Investor to use as storage unit or could easily be turned into 1-2 bedroom unit** Building has one car garage with tons of space and an upstairs loft.
-
2025-03-18soldstatus $52,000 Sold
Show marketing remark (164 chars)
**Perfect for Investor to use as storage unit or could easily be turned into 1-2 bedroom unit** Building has one car garage with tons of space and an upstairs loft.
-
2025-03-04status Under Contract
-
2025-03-03status Pending 164-char remark
Show marketing remark (164 chars)
**Perfect for Investor to use as storage unit or could easily be turned into 1-2 bedroom unit** Building has one car garage with tons of space and an upstairs loft.
-
2025-03-01status Back On Market
Show marketing remark (164 chars)
**Perfect for Investor to use as storage unit or could easily be turned into 1-2 bedroom unit** Building has one car garage with tons of space and an upstairs loft.
-
2025-03-01status Active 164-char remark
Show marketing remark (164 chars)
**Perfect for Investor to use as storage unit or could easily be turned into 1-2 bedroom unit** Building has one car garage with tons of space and an upstairs loft.
-
2025-02-28status Pending 164-char remark
Show marketing remark (164 chars)
**Perfect for Investor to use as storage unit or could easily be turned into 1-2 bedroom unit** Building has one car garage with tons of space and an upstairs loft.
-
2025-02-27status Under Contract
-
2025-02-20$49,999 Active 164-char remark
Show marketing remark (164 chars)
**Perfect for Investor to use as storage unit or could easily be turned into 1-2 bedroom unit** Building has one car garage with tons of space and an upstairs loft.
-
2025-02-20$49,999 New
Show marketing remark (164 chars)
**Perfect for Investor to use as storage unit or could easily be turned into 1-2 bedroom unit** Building has one car garage with tons of space and an upstairs loft.
-
1997-10-30soldstatus $4,232,500
-
1997-08-22soldstatus $3,274,200
-
1987-05-16soldstatus $148,000
-
1986-05-16soldstatus $148,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,403 · $117/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,403 · $117/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $18,385
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,865
- − Property taxes
- −$1,403
- − Insurance
- −$345
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,471
- − Management
- −$1,471
- − Depreciation
- −$2,007
- Taxable income
- $7,822
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,877
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,556/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Rockdale County
- NCES district ID
- 1304410
- Math proficiency
- 14% ▼ -17.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 29% ▼ -11.00%
- Median HH income
- $53,325
- Composite
- 19.42/100
- National rank
- #8776
- State rank
- #136 of 174 in GA
Livability — Conyers
- Score
- 67/100
- State rank
- #167
- US rank
- #10533
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Rockdale County · 96,534 people
- City population
- 96,534
- Metro
- Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
- Population (ZIP)
- 28,297
- Household income
- $74,691
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1197.0
Population outlook (Rockdale County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 99,145 people
- By 2030
- 104,558 · +5.5%
- By 2040
- 116,100 · +17.1%
- By 2050
- 127,827 · +28.9%
- By 2075
- 159,113 · +60.5%
- By 2100
- 181,178 · +82.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Black (70%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 70% White 17% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
- Foreign-born
- 11% · Canada, Vietnam, China
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Rockdale
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+47.5) · D 73.4% · R 25.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +37.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 47.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+47.5 2020: D+40.8 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+9.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -80.27%
- Current HPI
- 192.1705
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -1.33%
- Metro
- Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.66%
- F500 in state
- 28
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Paper / Packaging | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $160B |
|
||
| Transportation / Logistics | 1 | $91B |
|
||
| Airlines | 1 | $62B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 1 | $47B |
|
||
| Utilities | 1 | $25B |
|
||
Price history
-53.4% since first listed16 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-14 Price Changed $69,000 GAMLS
- 2026-01-08 Listed $74,990 GAMLS
- 2025-03-18 Sold (MLS) $52,000 GAMLS
- 2025-03-18 Sold (MLS) $52,000 FMLS
- 2025-03-04 Pending — GAMLS
- 2025-03-03 Pending — FMLS
- 2025-03-01 Relisted — GAMLS
- 2025-03-01 Relisted — FMLS
- 2025-02-28 Pending — FMLS
- 2025-02-27 Pending — GAMLS
- 2025-02-20 Listed $49,999 GAMLS
- 2025-02-20 Listed $49,999 FMLS
- 1997-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $4,232,500 Public Records
- 1997-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $3,274,200 Public Records
- 1987-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
- 1986-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+6.1%/yrLatest (2025): $1,403 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…