2715 W Annie Rd · Paulden, AZ 86334

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1983 2.48 ac lot Est $376k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity Knocks in Paulden! Time to own an affordable slice of Northern Arizona living on 2.52 acres with a private well -- how great is that? This livable home is ready for its next chapter and offers the perfect opportunity to create your own ''Home Sweet Home. ''Situated on a desirable corner parcel, the property provides easy access, added usability, and plenty of space for your vision. Whether you're dreaming of a mini-ranch, workshop, garden, or room for all your toys, there's space here to make it happen. The home does need some work, but it's a fantastic chance to build equity while customizing to your taste. With wide-open skies, privacy, and room to grow, this property is ready

Key facts

• Garden
• Private well
• Mini-ranch

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL
• CORNER PARCEL
• MINI-RANCH
• WORKSHOP
• GARDEN
• ROOM FOR ALL YOUR TOYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.0% in Paulden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#202 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Chino Valley Unified District (4474) (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #112 of 249 in AZ (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $200k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,256 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.26%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $375,840
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24921 N Verdot Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	12mo	$325,000	$217	64
3107 W Country Quail Trl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,297 (-10%)	2mo	$338,500	$261	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,909
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $17,900
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86334

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $581/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,494

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2026-03-26
   historical
4. 2026-02-26
   listed $199,900 Active
5. 2018-04-03
   soldstatus $125,000
6. 2004-02-20
   soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $581 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,319 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$738/yr (+$62/mo · 127.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$581
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$189
• After-tax cash flow: $3,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chino Valley Unified District (4474)
• NCES district ID: 0400003
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,429
• Composite: 25.22/100
• National rank: #7505
• State rank: #112 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Paulden

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #20477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paulden, AZ
• City population: 4,309
• Population (ZIP): 4,309

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.07%
• Current HPI: 433.9478
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+119.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $199,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $199,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $581 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.