7213 Rainbow Dr · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1955 0.31 ac lot Est $196k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity with oversized corner lot, outside fire pit, plenty of parking with circular drive. Schedule your private showing today.

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Outside fire pit
• Circular drive

Tags

• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• OUTSIDE FIRE PIT
• CIRCULAR DRIVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.50%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,570
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7309 Rainbow Dr	0.09mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,230 (0%)	4mo	$177,000	$144	88
7114 Nathan Hale Way	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-4%)	3mo	$169,900	$144	86
13609 Tennis Blvd	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,230 (0%)	4mo	$195,000	$159	85
7307 Nathan Hale Way	0.18mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,204 (-2%)	1mo	$215,000	$179	82
14017 Beeston Blvd	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,230 (0%)	4mo	$170,000	$138	80
13422 Hopedale Way	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-4%)	2mo	$155,000	$132	75
7408 Wimstock Ave	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,230 (0%)	2mo	$219,500	$178	73
13507 Tennis Blvd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-8%)	1mo	$190,000	$168	72
15008 Galston Blvd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+1%)	4mo	$155,000	$125	64
14910 Galston Blvd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+3%)	2mo	$196,000	$154	56
13501 Horncastle Way	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,165 (-5%)	3mo	$210,000	$180	55
13413 Kinross Blvd	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,068 (-13%)	3mo	$197,000	$184	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-277
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $26,286
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40272

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $973/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,177

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6902 Betsy Ross Dr Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	14d	1	0.33mi
7019 James Madison Way Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,750	$1.27	1d	1	0.70mi
13217 Forge Cir Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1092	$1,495	$1.37	1d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-10-22
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-19
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $973 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,289 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$316/yr (+$26/mo · 32.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$973
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,514
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$603
• After-tax cash flow: $4,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,289
• Household income: $69,940
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.10%
• Current HPI: 247.2954
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.07%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-22 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-19 Listed $149,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $973 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.