2837 Calumet Cir #106 · Jacksonville, FL 32250

$35,100

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a picnic area / pavilion / grill, a swimming pool, and scenic views, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Picnic area
• Swimming pool
• Scenic views

Tags

• PICNIC AREA
• SWIMMING POOL
• SCENIC VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $35,100

Exterior

• Home design: Condominium unit at 2837 Calumet Cir #106, Jacksonville, FL 32250; Spec home, plan 93485; Active listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 total bathrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Cap rate 61.7% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $243 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,100

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 61.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 197.72%
• DSCR: 9.80
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,816
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13757 Chauny Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+11%)	12mo	$137,000	$101	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.42×
• Total profit: $102,394
• Equity at exit: $5,234

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.74×
• Total profit: $243,117
• Equity at exit: $3,035

Cash invested: $9,828 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32250

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $526/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $1,619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $307

Max offer price $35,100

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,775
• Closing costs: $1,053
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14089 Lumberton Falls Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1474	$2,450	$1.66	24d	1	0.19mi
2942 Rockford Falls Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,100	$1.41	17d	1	0.27mi
14051 Beach Blvd Jacksonville Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$2,410	$2.41	2d	17	0.45mi
13717 Otway Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1476	$3,500	$2.37	7d	1	0.48mi
2443 Footbridge Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,000	$2.07	4d	1	0.52mi
13793 Herons Landing Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,850	$1.37	24d	1	0.64mi
13364 Beach Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1418	$2,000	$1.41	14d	5	1.10mi
13364 Beach Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1418	$1,997	$1.41	4d	6	1.10mi
2001 Hodges Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,776	$1.78	20d	15	1.16mi
3551 San Pablo Rd S Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	800	$1,399	$1.75	3d	11	1.19mi
3477 Nightscape Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1078	$1,750	$1.62	24d	1	1.23mi
3435 Nightscape Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1078	$1,800	$1.67	24d	1	1.25mi
3684 Summerlin Ln Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1110	$1,600	$1.44	24d	1	1.28mi
3504 Summerlin Ln Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1110	$1,475	$1.33	24d	1	1.32mi
3709 San Pablo Rd S Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,890	$2.36	3d	14	1.40mi
13700 Richmond Park Dr N #1002 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,396	$1.38	21d	1	1.42mi
13700 Richmond Park Dr N #1002 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,396	$1.38	14d	1	1.42mi
1715 Hodges Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,893	$2.23	2d	60	1.45mi
1700 San Pablo Rd S Jacksonville, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1309	$2,258	$1.73	2d	16	1.50mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,966
• − Property taxes: −$526
• − Insurance: −$176
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,263
• − Management: −$2,263
• − Depreciation: −$1,021
• Taxable income: $20,067
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,816
• After-tax cash flow: $14,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,072
• Household income: $117,724
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 719.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -581.25%
• Current HPI: 329.7742
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B