407 Stillwood Ln · Mobile, AL 36608

$385,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,414 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1968 0.39 ac lot $159/sqft · 11% below area Est $476k · 19% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime Springhill location on an oversized lot! This well-maintained home offers a flexible floor plan with a first-floor bedroom and full bath, perfect for guests, a home office, study, or playroom. The main level also features formal living and dining rooms with beautiful mahogany parquet floors and a spacious laundry room. The galley-style kitchen includes stainless steel appliances and marble countertops. Upstairs you’ll find a large primary suite with its own private bath and a generous walk-in closet. 5 years ago the interior was completely renovated down to the studs with all new sheetrock, paint, insulation, and double-pane windows. Roof, HVAC system, and appliances were also replaced. Composit top of roof was done 6 months ago (all per seller). Enjoy the great back patio overlooking the deep 225’ lot! seller is also leaving the generator - which runs the fridge, a few tv's and the a/c

Key facts

• First-floor bedroom
• Dining rooms
• Full bath

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM
• FULL BATH
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOMS
• MAHOGANY PARQUET FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-287 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,587/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1823% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,734 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $475,794
• List price: $385,000
• Delta: -13.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3521 Stillwood Ln W	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,470 (+2%)	8mo	$327,750	$133	79
414 Avalon St	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,669 (+11%)	6mo	$669,000	$251	72
3517 Stillwood Ln W	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,100 (-13%)	6mo	$550,000	$262	69
11 Provident Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,604 (+8%)	3mo	$455,000	$175	65
313 Brawood Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,233 (-8%)	6mo	$429,756	$192	60
332 Dalewood Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,256 (-6%)	0mo	$387,000	$172	59
3704 Stein Ave	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,606 (+8%)	6mo	$989,000	$380	55
261 Bishop Ln N	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,589 (+7%)	13mo	$417,500	$161	54
323 Dalewood Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,766 (+15%)	2mo	$535,000	$193	53
3263 Stein St	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,081 (-14%)	10mo	$310,500	$149	50
3752 Sheips Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,626 (+9%)	3mo	$535,500	$204	46
151 Tuthill Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,089 (-14%)	9mo	$690,000	$330	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-72,396
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-50,242
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36608

• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,587 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,951

Max offer price $334,229

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3521 Stillwood Ln W Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	2126	$2,900	$1.36	44d	1	0.07mi
324 Dalewood Dr Mobile, AL	4.0	3.0	2398	$2,750	$1.15	44d	1	0.44mi
146 Yester Oaks Dr Mobile, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1203	$1,596	$1.33	13d	12	1.46mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $385,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $385,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $385,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,900 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $399,900 Active 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Prime Springhill location on an oversized lot! This well-maintained home offers a flexible floor plan with a first-floor bedroom and full bath, perfect for guests, a home office, study, or playroom. The main level also features formal living and dining rooms with beautiful mahogany parquet floors and a spacious laundry room. The galley-style kitchen includes stainless steel appliances and marble countertops. Upstairs you’ll find a large primary suite with its own private bath and a generous walk-in closet. 5 years ago the interior was completely renovated down to the studs with all new sheetrock, paint, insulation, and double-pane windows. Roof, HVAC system, and appliances were also replaced. Composit top of roof was done 6 months ago (all per seller). Enjoy the great back patio overlooking the deep 225’ lot! seller is also leaving the generator - which runs the fridge, a few tv's and the a/c Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

18. 2026-05-18
    listed $399,900 Active 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Prime Springhill location on an oversized lot! This well-maintained home offers a flexible floor plan with a first-floor bedroom and full bath, perfect for guests, a home office, study, or playroom. The main level also features formal living and dining rooms with beautiful mahogany parquet floors and a spacious laundry room. The galley-style kitchen includes stainless steel appliances and marble countertops. Upstairs you’ll find a large primary suite with its own private bath and a generous walk-in closet. 5 years ago the interior was completely renovated down to the studs with all new sheetrock, paint, insulation, and double-pane windows. Roof, HVAC system, and appliances were also replaced. Composit top of roof was done 6 months ago (all per seller). Enjoy the great back patio overlooking the deep 225’ lot! seller is also leaving the generator - which runs the fridge, a few tv's and the a/c Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2026-03-14
    price $410,000
20. 2026-03-14
    price $410,000
21. 2026-01-16
    price $413,000
22. 2026-01-16
    price $413,000
23. 2025-11-12
    price $419,000
24. 2025-11-12
    price $419,000
25. 2025-10-22
    listed $429,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$1,824
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,484
• − Management: −$2,484
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$10,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,504
• After-tax cash flow: $-945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,890
• Household income: $61,146
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1823.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 35% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.52%
• Current HPI: 198.9469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.15%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $399,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-18 Listed $399,900 BCAR
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $410,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $410,000 BCAR
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $413,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $413,000 BCAR
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $419,000 GCMLS AL
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $419,000 BCAR
• 2025-10-22 Listed $429,900 BCAR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,824 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.