6407 Holden Mills Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77389

$382,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2004 9,957 sqft lot $134/sqft · 21% below area Est $482k · 21% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2-story home in the highly sought-after master-planned community of Auburn Lakes! This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home features a spacious and functional layout with the primary suite conveniently located on the first floor. Inside, you’ll find formal living and dining areas, an open-concept kitchen with breakfast bar and island, large upstairs game room. A standout feature is the custom 360-degree built-in fish tank in the formal living area, creating a unique focal point you won’t find in most homes. Recent updates a NEW roof (2025), New Carpet Downstairs, and fresh interior paint, making this home move-in ready. Enjoy added privacy with no back neighbors and a generously sized backyard. Additional features include high ceilings, a cozy gas fireplace, and an attached 2-car garage. Located in Klein ISD community amenities, including a pool, splash pad, clubhouse, fitness center, trails, and more.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Pool
• No back neighbors

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE ON FIRST FLOOR
• CUSTOM BUILT-IN FISH TANK
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• GENEROUSLY SIZED BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $382k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-723 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($371k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,215 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.12%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $482,334
• List price: $382,000
• Delta: -20.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24831 Corbin Gate Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,882 (+1%)	0mo	$460,000	$160	84
24826 Pikecrest Dr	0.23mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,865 (+0%)	6mo	$435,000	$152	79
25127 Arcane Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,448 (-14%)	6mo	$514,900	$210	60
24910 Corbin Gate Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	2,505 (-12%)	9mo	$389,000	$155	59
25206 Hawthorne Blossom Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,817 (-2%)	2mo	$444,900	$158	58
25107 Carrick Bend Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	3,026 (+6%)	6mo	$569,900	$188	56
6515 Pine Arrow Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,571 (-10%)	3mo	$390,000	$152	54
6107 Hampton Way Ct	0.59mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,101 (+8%)	2mo	$415,000	$134	51
25218 Auburn Bend Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,026 (+6%)	8mo	$539,000	$178	50
25807 Northcrest Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,688 (-6%)	3mo	$478,000	$178	49
25306 Auburn Bend Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,077 (+8%)	3mo	$530,000	$172	48
6407 Pine Rest Dr	0.49mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,260 (+14%)	1mo	$439,000	$135	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-110,807
• Equity at exit: $56,957

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-167,188
• Equity at exit: $33,028

Cash invested: $106,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77389

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,003
• Tax from tax record: −$846 /mo · $10,152/yr
• Insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $-723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,903

Max offer price $254,215

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-507	-5% $-615	+0% $-723	+5% $-831	+10% $-940
Rent	-10% $-959	-5% $-841	+0% $-723	+5% $-605	+10% $-487
Rate	-1.0pp $-531	-0.5pp $-626	base $-723	+0.5pp $-822	+1.0pp $-923

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,500
• Closing costs: $11,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25023 Knob Pines Ct Spring, TX	4.0	4.0	3438	$3,400	$0.99	44d	1	0.37mi
6838 Adrienne Arbor Dr Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	3150	$3,800	$1.21	5d	1	0.89mi
5522 Mesquite Oaks Trl Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	2145	$2,500	$1.17	12d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: gaspoolgym

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 925-char remark

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   Beautiful 2-story home in the highly sought-after master-planned community of Auburn Lakes! This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home features a spacious and functional layout with the primary suite conveniently located on the first floor. Inside, you’ll find formal living and dining areas, an open-concept kitchen with breakfast bar and island, large upstairs game room. A standout feature is the custom 360-degree built-in fish tank in the formal living area, creating a unique focal point you won’t find in most homes. Recent updates a NEW roof (2025), New Carpet Downstairs, and fresh interior paint, making this home move-in ready. Enjoy added privacy with no back neighbors and a generously sized backyard. Additional features include high ceilings, a cozy gas fireplace, and an attached 2-car garage. Located in Klein ISD community amenities, including a pool, splash pad, clubhouse, fitness center, trails, and more.

2. 2026-03-28
   listed $382,000 Active 925-char remark

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   Beautiful 2-story home in the highly sought-after master-planned community of Auburn Lakes! This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home features a spacious and functional layout with the primary suite conveniently located on the first floor. Inside, you’ll find formal living and dining areas, an open-concept kitchen with breakfast bar and island, large upstairs game room. A standout feature is the custom 360-degree built-in fish tank in the formal living area, creating a unique focal point you won’t find in most homes. Recent updates a NEW roof (2025), New Carpet Downstairs, and fresh interior paint, making this home move-in ready. Enjoy added privacy with no back neighbors and a generously sized backyard. Additional features include high ceilings, a cozy gas fireplace, and an attached 2-car garage. Located in Klein ISD community amenities, including a pool, splash pad, clubhouse, fitness center, trails, and more.

3. 2005-02-18
   historical
4. 2004-11-09
   listed $205,125

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,152 · $846/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,152 · $846/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,398
• − Property taxes: −$10,152
• − Insurance: −$1,910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,868
• − Management: −$2,868
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$11,113
• Taxable loss: −$15,360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,686
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,701
• Household income: $140,683
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1191.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.54%
• Current HPI: 236.5688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+86.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $382,000 HARMLS
• 2005-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-11-09 Listed $205,125 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,152 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.