1918 Harrison Ave #6 · Centralia, WA 98531

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · Other public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1999

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Manufactured Home in Premier 55+ Community. This immaculate home offers 1,352 sq. ft. of open concept living. Enjoy a spacious living room, bright dining area, and a well designed kitchen that’s perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Step outside to a lovely patio ideal for relaxing or hosting friends. Nestled in one of the nicest 55+ communities around, you’ll have access to a welcoming clubhouse for gatherings and events. The location can’t be beat, close to shopping, restaurants, parks, and medical facilities, with convenient access to I-5 for an easy commute. Come see this move in ready home and experience comfort, convenience, and com

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Bright dining area
• Lovely patio

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• BRIGHT DINING AREA
• WELL DESIGNED KITCHEN
• LOVELY PATIO
• WELCOMING CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Bus line nearby
• Financial info: Listing offers accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA; Land lease amount: $525
• HOA & community: Located in Golden Estates manufactured home park; Park approved for sale; Clubhouse in park; 45 homes in the park; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Individual garage; Has garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric power; Water heater (electric)
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Entry; Silvercrest Westwind model; Very good condition
• Construction: Composition roof; Tie down foundation; Manufactured house structure; Manufactured after 06/15/1976
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot; Paved access; Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Water heater; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fan(s); Double pane windows; Walk-in closet; Walk-in pantry; Landscaped; Patio/porch/deck; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Utility room; Water heater located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-44/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fords Prairie Elementary (448 students, 83% FRL); Centralia Middle School (549 students, 80% FRL); Centralia High School (986 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $181,340 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-36,741
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-32,482
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,951/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,818

Max offer price $224,346

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $60	+0% $-4	+5% $-67	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-75	+0% $-4	+5% $68	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $54	base $-4	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2227 Harrison Ave Unit 21 Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	714	$1,395	$1.95	23d	1	0.41mi
1413 Nora Ln Centralia, WA	2.0	3.0	1315	$1,850	$1.41	45d	1	0.44mi
1413 Nora Ln Unit B Centralia, WA	2.0	2.5	1315	$1,850	$1.41	45d	1	0.44mi
1014 N Scheuber Rd Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,395	$1.57	15d	1	0.78mi
2711 Niki Ln Bldg D8 Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,100	$1.60	45d	1	0.90mi
2711 Niki LN Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,100	$1.68	45d	1	0.95mi
2999 Harrison Ave Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,100	$1.60	23d	1	1.05mi
2991 Yaro Ln Unit A Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,100	$1.60	23d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $225,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,951 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,205 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$254/yr (+$21/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,951
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$947
• After-tax cash flow: $903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, WA
• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $225,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,951 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.