8173 Willow St · Windsor, CA 95492

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,166 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 2001 8.30 ac lot Est $166k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home located in the desirable Windsor Mobile Country Club, a vibrant 55+ community. Built in 2002 and offering approximately 1,166 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this home combines comfort, functionality, and low-maintenance living. Inside you'll find welcoming living spaces, abundant natural light, and generous storage. The kitchen conveniently connects to an indoor laundry area, and all major appliances are included, including gas range, oven, dishwasher, refrigerator, washer, and dryer. The primary suite features sliding glass door access to a covered rear deck overlooking a peaceful open space, creati

Key facts

• Indoor laundry area
• Soaking tub
• Storage shed

Tags

• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• COVERED REAR DECK
• SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE STALL SHOWER
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Windsor Mobile Country Club
• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount: $928
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Double wide; Silvercrest model by Delaware Western Homes Corp
• Construction: Skirt: Other
• Exterior features: Located in a senior community; Lot within Windsor Mobile Country Club (mobile home park); Lot is leased

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Shower stall(s) and tub; Laundry inside the home; Central heating and central cooling
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.0% in Windsor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#210 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Windsor Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #362 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.30%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,572
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8109 B St	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-1%)	3mo	$199,000	$173	87
8155 Willow St	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-4%)	5mo	$145,000	$129	85
8167 Willow St	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-6%)	13mo	$155,000	$141	78
708 Sequoia Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-1%)	20mo	$155,000	$135	74
1036 Maple Dr	0.24mi	2/1.5	1,056 (-9%)	3mo	$150,000	$142	68
601 Aspen Way	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+11%)	6mo	$179,900	$139	66
703 Sequoia	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+7%)	18mo	$172,000	$138	65
8133 C St	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-11%)	12mo	$195,000	$188	63
8107 B St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+12%)	10mo	$270,000	$208	60
612 Aspen Way	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (+12%)	11mo	$215,000	$164	57
8132 Willow St	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-11%)	22mo	$135,000	$130	57
8114 B St	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-14%)	16mo	$261,500	$262	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $36,590
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $120,275
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95492

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,855 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $563/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $1,082

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 Courtyards E Windsor, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,300	$2.35	13d	1	0.11mi
172 Courtyards E Windsor, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,650	$2.70	13d	1	0.18mi
10 3rd St Unit 10 Windsor, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,395	$2.40	43d	1	0.33mi
7924 Ferrari Way Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1476	$3,400	$2.30	43d	1	0.68mi
776 McClelland Dr Windsor, CA	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,900	$2.16	43d	1	0.71mi
1145 Shiloh Rd Windsor, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$3,828	$4.93	7d	14	1.06mi
9631 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 9631 Windsor, CA	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,375	$2.27	21d	1	1.13mi
1011 Ventana Dr Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,400	$3.09	43d	1	1.17mi
1130 Windsor River Rd Windsor, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,200	$3.14	43d	1	1.43mi
339 Pollard Way Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1158	$4,500	$3.89	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $563 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$950/yr (+$79/mo · 168.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$563
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,741
• − Management: −$2,741
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $10,285
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,468
• After-tax cash flow: $10,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Windsor Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600034
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $81,297
• Composite: 25.06/100
• National rank: #7541
• State rank: #362 of 517 in CA

Livability — Windsor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #6671

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Windsor, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 27,429
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 27,429
• Household income: $134,211
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 628.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Native American 4% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 25% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.03%
• Current HPI: 249.6052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $199,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $563 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.