1406 Caceres Spur · San Antonio, TX 78224

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,657 sqft · SingleFamily · 196 Days on market

Built 2024 4,791 sqft lot Est $247k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

The Rio - This new three-bedroom home offers convenient single-floor living. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas with access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and multitasking. Three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for enhanced comfort and privacy, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio

Tags

• SINGLE-FLOOR LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-325 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Ronald E Mcnair Middle (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 748 students, 77% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 275 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,699 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.58%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,893
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10707 Red Shiner Run	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+1%)	1mo	$220,499	$132	85
1439 Leticia Gln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,657 (0%)	1mo	$255,999	$154	77
1427 Althea Bnd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,657 (0%)	1mo	$240,999	$145	76
1419 Althea Bnd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,657 (0%)	1mo	$261,999	$158	76
10714 Marlin Pond	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-10%)	1mo	$226,999	$153	75
10703 Red Shiner Run	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-10%)	1mo	$206,999	$139	74
10843 Bernal Cv	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (-5%)	1mo	$223,999	$142	68
10807 Bernal Cv	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (-5%)	1mo	$248,999	$158	66
10711 Red Shiner Run	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,885 (+14%)	1mo	$264,999	$141	62
10315 Bluegill Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,896 (+14%)	1mo	$248,999	$131	57
1435 Leticia Gln	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,795 (+8%)	0mo	$267,999	$149	54
10826 Apple Pie Rd	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,900 (+15%)	0mo	$312,851	$165	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $111,604
• Equity at exit: $225,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $337,840
• Equity at exit: $485,693

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78224

• Home prices YoY: 12.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,817 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,229

Max offer price $202,933

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-152	-5% $-239	+0% $-325	+5% $-412	+10% $-498
Rent	-10% $-469	-5% $-397	+0% $-325	+5% $-253	+10% $-182
Rate	-1.0pp $-199	-0.5pp $-262	base $-325	+0.5pp $-390	+1.0pp $-456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10811 Soupe CV San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$1,995	$0.92	4d	1	0.04mi
1347 Neria LOOP San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$1,699	$0.78	45d	1	0.04mi
10723 Goose Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.15mi
10710 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.17mi
10723 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1687	$1,675	$0.99	45d	1	0.18mi
10719 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1645	$1,640	$1.00	45d	1	0.19mi
10523 Goose Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.25mi
10527 Hunters Pond San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1510	$1,395	$0.92	45d	1	0.32mi
2222 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	25d	1	0.39mi
2226 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,650	$0.93	25d	1	0.40mi
2230 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	25d	1	0.41mi
2242 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.43mi
10823 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	3d	1	0.44mi
2235 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	45d	1	0.44mi
10815 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	25d	1	0.45mi
10807 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,700	$1.08	18d	1	0.45mi
10610 Apple Pie Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,595	$1.25	25d	1	0.45mi
2026 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1383	$1,650	$1.19	6d	1	0.46mi
2107 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,675	$0.94	45d	1	0.49mi
2111 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,700	$0.89	45d	1	0.50mi
2115 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	45d	1	0.50mi
10611 Vesta Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,735	$1.07	6d	1	0.52mi
2307 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,750	$0.97	45d	1	0.52mi
10507 Padron Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	45d	1	0.53mi
2318 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	0.53mi
10622 Vesta Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,725	$1.06	6d	1	0.55mi
2350 Dry Moss Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,650	$1.16	45d	1	0.56mi
1442 Mira Ml San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	45d	1	0.56mi
2335 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	6d	1	0.57mi
10210 S Zarzamora St San Antonio, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1139	$1,460	$1.28	0d	1	0.57mi
2330 Redlove Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,600	$1.13	6d	1	0.58mi
2343 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	0.58mi
1355 Neria Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,575	$1.24	45d	1	0.58mi
2350 Redlove Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,675	$1.18	25d	1	0.61mi
10542 Nye Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,595	$1.11	45d	1	0.62mi
1407 Mira Ml San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	18d	1	0.63mi
1402 Bertha Br San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	0d	1	0.64mi
11327 Clearmine San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,650	$1.21	0d	2	0.66mi
10750 Twyla Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,750	$1.25	18d	1	0.71mi
10151 Asta Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,650	$1.02	14d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $249,999
3. 2026-04-09
   price $250,999
4. 2026-04-02
   price $251,999
5. 2026-03-28
   price $253,999
6. 2026-03-25
   price $254,999
7. 2026-03-24
   price $255,999
8. 2026-03-18
   price $257,999
9. 2026-03-17
   price $259,999
10. 2026-01-17
    price $275,999
11. 2026-01-13
    price $281,999
12. 2025-11-27
    price $286,999
13. 2025-11-12
    price $292,999
14. 2025-11-07
    price $278,999
15. 2025-10-28
    price $280,999
16. 2025-10-08
    listed $292,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,744
• − Management: −$1,744
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,006
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,232
• Household income: $59,891
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 90% Two or more races 24% White 6% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 55% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.95%
• Current HPI: 272.0709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $249,999 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $250,999 LERA
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $251,999 LERA
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $253,999 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $254,999 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $255,999 LERA
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $257,999 LERA
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $259,999 LERA
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $275,999 LERA
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $281,999 LERA
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $286,999 LERA
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $292,999 LERA
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $278,999 LERA
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $280,999 LERA
• 2025-10-08 Listed $292,999 LERA