2925 Summit Ave · Carney, MD 21234

$324,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,691 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1962 0.47 ac lot $192/sqft · at area comps Est $423k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS 5 BR/2 BA RANCHER ON GREAT LOT AND QUIET DEAD END STREET PRESENTS A RARE OPPORTUNITY FOR A NEW BUYER TO BUILD EQUITY!!FIRST FLOOR HAS BEEN PAINTED , NEW KITCHEN FLOOR AND LR, HALL, AND BR FLOORS ARE REFINISHED!!SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN CAN ACCOMMODATE LARGE FAMILY GATHERINGS. LARGE LOWER LEVEL HAS FIREPLACE , 2 BEDROOMS AND FULL BATH -PERFECT FOR ENTERTAINMENT , OFFICE, WORKOUT AREA, OR EXTENDED FAMILY!! ELECTRIC HAS BEEN UPDATED TO 100 AMP SERVICE!

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas for heating and hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Two or more access exits

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Wall oven; Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level; Two bedrooms on the first lower level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total (one on main level, one on first lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard hot water heating; Cooling system (electric)
• Interior features: Combination kitchen and dining area; Partially finished basement; Has fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-235/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.6% in Carney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#73 in MD, #2,656 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D+, crime D-.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,026 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,107
• List price: $324,900
• Delta: -23.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9919 Finney Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (+5%)	5mo	$520,000	$292	67
9622 Dixon Ave	0.69mi	5/3.0	1,727 (+2%)	13mo	$427,000	$247	50
9638 Oak Summit Ave	0.44mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,562 (-8%)	13mo	$290,000	$186	49
9932 Britinay Ln	0.69mi	4/3.5 (-1)	1,782 (+5%)	1mo	$370,000	$208	47
17 Brookings Ct	0.67mi	5/2.5	1,778 (+5%)	23mo	$470,000	$264	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-43,373
• Equity at exit: $48,444

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $7,212
• Equity at exit: $28,091

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21234

• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$345 /mo · $4,143/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,765

Max offer price $321,434

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $72	+0% $-20	+5% $-112	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-236	-5% $-128	+0% $-20	+5% $89	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $63	base $-20	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Kirwin Ct Parkville, MD	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,872	$1.60	18d	1	0.20mi
9702 Oakdale Ave Parkville, MD	4.0	2.0	1188	$2,000	$1.68	44d	1	0.38mi
2815 Northwind Rd Parkville, MD	4.0	3.0	1992	$3,000	$1.51	24d	1	0.57mi
9351 Pan Ridge Rd Unit Master 1 Parkville, MD	4.0	1.5	1590	$950	$0.60	44d	1	1.05mi
8552 Hydra Ln Unit 11G Nottingham, MD	4.0	2.0	1296	$2,872	$2.22	18d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   historical Active Under Contract 461-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   price $324,900 461-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $329,250 Active 461-char remark
4. 2026-04-23
   historical $329,250 461-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,143 · $345/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,143 · $345/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$4,143
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,631
• − Management: −$2,631
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable loss: −$5,797
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,391
• After-tax cash flow: $1,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Carney

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #2656

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carney, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 65,010
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 66,334
• Household income: $83,517
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2719.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 28% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -247.04%
• Current HPI: 254.3824
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.68%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) $340,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $324,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $329,250 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $329,250 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,143 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.