3612 Sabine Dr · Little Elm, TX 75068

$329,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,598 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2019 6,229 sqft lot $206/sqft · 16% below area Est $395k · 16% under $64/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ideally nestled in a serene lakeside community near the peaceful shores of Lake Lewisville, this charming 4-bedroom home offers the perfect balance of tranquility and everyday convenience—inviting you to slow down, unwind, and truly enjoy your surroundings. Step inside to a light-filled, open-concept layout where the seamless flow between the living, kitchen, and dining areas creates a space that feels both expansive and inviting—perfect for hosting lively gatherings or enjoying quiet evenings at home. At the heart of it all, the stunning white-on-white kitchen is beautifully appointed with a gas range, abundant counter and cabinet space, and a large island that effortlessly brings everyone together. Privately tucked at the back of the home, the spacious primary suite offers a true sense of retreat—complete with a spa-inspired bath featuring a sleek frameless shower, dual vanities, a charming dressing and makeup area, and a generous walk-in closet. With four true bedrooms, the home provides a flexible and thoughtfully designed layout ideal for growing families, welcoming guests, or creating the perfect work-from-home space. Step outside to your own private escape. The extended patio sets the stage for relaxing evenings and effortless outdoor entertaining, all enhanced by the added privacy of no rear neighbors looking in. Residents enjoy access to neighborhood amenities including a pool, playground, and scenic walking trails, all just minutes from Eldorado Parkway, with convenient access to schools, shopping, dining, and everyday essentials.

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Spa-inspired bath
• Frameless shower

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WHITE-ON-WHITE KITCHEN
• GAS RANGE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATH
• FRAMELESS SHOWER
• DUAL VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.0% in Little Elm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#790 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1320 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,841 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.02%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,968
• List price: $329,900
• Delta: -16.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3513 Caddo Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,636 (+2%)	11mo	$354,900	$217	84
2804 Brazos Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,604 (+0%)	3mo	$324,999	$203	75
3005 Lampasas Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (+2%)	6mo	$325,000	$200	74
2917 Llano Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (+5%)	2mo	$335,000	$199	72
3400 Brazos Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (+5%)	8mo	$350,000	$208	72
2900 Frio Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (+4%)	3mo	$439,990	$264	70
3709 Comal Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (+5%)	12mo	$355,000	$212	68
3613 Comal Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (+5%)	12mo	$353,900	$210	68
3209 Comal Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,683 (+5%)	12mo	$374,990	$223	66
2804 Colorado Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,628 (+2%)	12mo	$350,000	$215	63
252 Backcountry Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (-6%)	6mo	$285,424	$190	47
9908 Bitterroot Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,807 (+13%)	14mo	$396,000	$219	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-85,558
• Equity at exit: $49,189

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-135,079
• Equity at exit: $28,524

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1320
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,598 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$508 /mo · $6,094/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,088

Max offer price $261,607

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-200	-5% $-293	+0% $-387	+5% $-480	+10% $-573
Rent	-10% $-592	-5% $-489	+0% $-387	+5% $-284	+10% $-181
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-303	base $-387	+0.5pp $-472	+1.0pp $-559

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3609 Sabine Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2033	$2,395	$1.18	11d	1	0.05mi
9916 Echo Summit Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	2246	$2,550	$1.14	6d	1	0.27mi
300 Lakefront Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	926	$2,577	$2.78	3d	59	0.53mi
609 Racine Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1862	$2,600	$1.40	44d	1	0.68mi
1705 Kruppa Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,250	$1.46	25d	1	0.78mi
4123 Windy Point Rd Oak Point, TX	4.0	3.0	2249	$2,999	$1.33	13d	1	0.88mi
1540 Soccer Dr Unit 10003 Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.5	1396	$2,255	$1.62	12d	1	1.00mi
1560 Soccer Dr Little Elm, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1052	$2,970	$2.82	4d	116	1.01mi
9801 Sycamore Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	1.13mi
436 Northbrook Ave Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,095	$1.38	44d	1	1.17mi
900 Lake Cypress Ln Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$2,125	$1.26	13d	1	1.26mi
921 Lake Cypress Ln Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	2033	$2,261	$1.11	25d	1	1.31mi
571 Lloyd's Rd Little Elm, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1751	$3,292	$1.88	0d	33	1.34mi
929 Lake Woodland Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1862	$2,400	$1.29	44d	1	1.36mi
929 Lake Woodland Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1862	$2,400	$1.29	25d	1	1.36mi
1017 Lake Cypress Ln Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	2020	$2,450	$1.21	25d	1	1.37mi
3101 Bell Flower Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1736	$3,000	$1.73	0d	1	1.37mi
579 Lloyd's Rd Unit 1102A Little Elm, TX	3.0	3.0	1968	$2,795	$1.42	44d	1	1.43mi
1020 Lake Meadow Ln Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,075	$1.37	13d	1	1.44mi
1020 Lake Meadow Ln Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,075	$1.37	23d	1	1.44mi
9225 Buckeye Bnd Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1854	$2,600	$1.40	13d	1	1.44mi
1504 Van Gogh Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,000	$1.25	44d	1	1.45mi
1504 Van Gogh Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,100	$1.31	25d	1	1.45mi
1500 Van Gogh Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1861	$2,800	$1.50	44d	1	1.45mi
1408 Rousseau Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,150	$1.32	44d	1	1.46mi
1904 Adams Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$2,295	$1.26	19d	1	1.47mi
9105 Buckeye Bnd Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,565	$1.38	21d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $329,900 Pending 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,900 Active Option Contract 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,900 Active Option Contract 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,900 Active Option Contract 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $329,900 Active Option Contract 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $329,900 Active Option Contract 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $329,900 Active Option Contract 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   status $329,900 Active Option Contract 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $329,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-05-05
    price $329,900 1584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1584 chars)

    Ideally nestled in a serene lakeside community near the peaceful shores of Lake Lewisville, this charming 4-bedroom home offers the perfect balance of tranquility and everyday convenience—inviting you to slow down, unwind, and truly enjoy your surroundings. Step inside to a light-filled, open-concept layout where the seamless flow between the living, kitchen, and dining areas creates a space that feels both expansive and inviting—perfect for hosting lively gatherings or enjoying quiet evenings at home. At the heart of it all, the stunning white-on-white kitchen is beautifully appointed with a gas range, abundant counter and cabinet space, and a large island that effortlessly brings everyone together. Privately tucked at the back of the home, the spacious primary suite offers a true sense of retreat—complete with a spa-inspired bath featuring a sleek frameless shower, dual vanities, a charming dressing and makeup area, and a generous walk-in closet. With four true bedrooms, the home provides a flexible and thoughtfully designed layout ideal for growing families, welcoming guests, or creating the perfect work-from-home space. Step outside to your own private escape. The extended patio sets the stage for relaxing evenings and effortless outdoor entertaining, all enhanced by the added privacy of no rear neighbors looking in. Residents enjoy access to neighborhood amenities including a pool, playground, and scenic walking trails, all just minutes from Eldorado Parkway, with convenient access to schools, shopping, dining, and everyday essentials.

12. 2026-04-17
    listed $334,900 Active 1584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1584 chars)

    Ideally nestled in a serene lakeside community near the peaceful shores of Lake Lewisville, this charming 4-bedroom home offers the perfect balance of tranquility and everyday convenience—inviting you to slow down, unwind, and truly enjoy your surroundings. Step inside to a light-filled, open-concept layout where the seamless flow between the living, kitchen, and dining areas creates a space that feels both expansive and inviting—perfect for hosting lively gatherings or enjoying quiet evenings at home. At the heart of it all, the stunning white-on-white kitchen is beautifully appointed with a gas range, abundant counter and cabinet space, and a large island that effortlessly brings everyone together. Privately tucked at the back of the home, the spacious primary suite offers a true sense of retreat—complete with a spa-inspired bath featuring a sleek frameless shower, dual vanities, a charming dressing and makeup area, and a generous walk-in closet. With four true bedrooms, the home provides a flexible and thoughtfully designed layout ideal for growing families, welcoming guests, or creating the perfect work-from-home space. Step outside to your own private escape. The extended patio sets the stage for relaxing evenings and effortless outdoor entertaining, all enhanced by the added privacy of no rear neighbors looking in. Residents enjoy access to neighborhood amenities including a pool, playground, and scenic walking trails, all just minutes from Eldorado Parkway, with convenient access to schools, shopping, dining, and everyday essentials.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,094 · $508/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,094 · $508/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$6,094
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,494
• − Management: −$2,494
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$10,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,495
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Elm ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827720
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $76,400
• Composite: 36.17/100
• National rank: #4734
• State rank: #327 of 826 in TX

Livability — Little Elm

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #790
• US rank: #14430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 72,710
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $329,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $334,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+19.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,094 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.