59 Charm City Dr · Port Jefferson Station, NY 11776

$499,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 1968 0.35 ac lot Est $539k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Get your loved one something nice this Valentine's day! Like the best priced home to hit the market boasting 3-4 bedrooms/den, 1 full bath with room for a second, hardwood floors, dining area, oversized flat backyard with overhead patio that practically begs for summer barbecues, and an attached garage for your beloved junk collection (or, you know, cars). Beautifully updated kitchen make this beloved home a new affordable place cheaper then rent.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($907/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $390k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $390k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.8% in Port Jefferson Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#314 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Brookhaven-Comsewogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #123 of 590 in NY (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Norwood Avenue School (321 students, 33% FRL); John F Kennedy Middle School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 822 students, 35% FRL); Comsewogue High School (math 86% / reading 92%, grade A+, #288 of 1,100 statewide, top 27%, 1,153 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $499k implies a 284% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $389,973 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $538,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
267 Woodhull Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	2mo	$445,000	$386	76
17 Katherine St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	7mo	$517,000	$449	69
22 Midland Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,200 (0%)	1mo	$625,000	$521	60
323 Broadway	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,193 (-1%)	2mo	$545,000	$457	60
31 Forest Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,180 (-2%)	12mo	$555,000	$470	56
106 Montrose Dr	0.33mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,092 (-9%)	8mo	$425,000	$389	56
49 Admiral St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,283 (+7%)	0mo	$605,000	$472	54
118 Montrose Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,092 (-9%)	10mo	$445,000	$408	52
26 Weldon Ln	0.32mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,092 (-9%)	7mo	$610,000	$559	51
43 Poplar St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (+8%)	6mo	$505,000	$388	47
131 Sterling St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,372 (+14%)	1mo	$600,000	$437	45
172 Norwood Ave	0.45mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,372 (+14%)	6mo	$480,000	$350	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-86,240
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-108,636
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11776

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,166/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$819
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,804

Max offer price $499,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $217	+0% $76	+5% $-66	+10% $-207
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-78	+0% $76	+5% $230	+10% $384
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $203	base $76	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13 Winston Ln Port Jefferson Station, NY	4.0	1.0	810	$4,000	$4.94	24d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-13
   listed $499,000 Active
3. 2026-02-11
   historical $499,000
4. 1995-04-10
   soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,166 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,299 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,134/yr (+$261/mo · 144.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$2,166
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,744
• − Management: −$3,744
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$7,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,877
• After-tax cash flow: $2,784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brookhaven-Comsewogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3615780
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $84,654
• Composite: 61.8/100
• National rank: #733
• State rank: #123 of 590 in NY

Livability — Port Jefferson Station

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #5221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Jefferson Station, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 22,808
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,808
• Household income: $120,573
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 648.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -656.56%
• Current HPI: 343.598
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.39%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+283.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Coming Soon $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,166 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.