1216 Big Spring Rd · Ekron, KY 40117

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 50 Days on market

Built 2026 1.05 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new home! This brand new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide offers modern living in a peaceful country setting. Situated on 1.05 acres, this property provides plenty of space to relax, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you'll find an open-concept layout featuring a spacious living room, stylish kitchen with new appliances, and a cozy dining area perfect for gatherings. The primary suite includes a private bath, while two additional bedrooms offer comfort and versatility. Enjoy the tranquility of rural living with the convenience of being just a short drive to town amenities. With everything brand new and move-in ready, this home is the perfect combination of comfort, space, and value. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautiful new home in Big Springs!

Key facts

• Cozy dining area
• Stylish kitchen
• New appliances

Tags

• 1.05 ACRES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• COZY DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#291 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Meade County (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #21 of 165 in KY (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Meade County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Meade County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $162,663 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.07%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $42,977
• Equity at exit: $116,493

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $133,946
• Equity at exit: $203,759

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40117

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $185,947

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-27	+0% $-96	+5% $-165	+10% $-235
Rent	-10% $-225	-5% $-161	+0% $-96	+5% $-32	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $4	-0.5pp $-46	base $-96	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-06
   listed $199,900 Active 785-char remark

   Show marketing remark (785 chars)

   Welcome to your new home! This brand new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide offers modern living in a peaceful country setting. Situated on 1.05 acres, this property provides plenty of space to relax, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you'll find an open-concept layout featuring a spacious living room, stylish kitchen with new appliances, and a cozy dining area perfect for gatherings. The primary suite includes a private bath, while two additional bedrooms offer comfort and versatility. Enjoy the tranquility of rural living with the convenience of being just a short drive to town amenities. With everything brand new and move-in ready, this home is the perfect combination of comfort, space, and value. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautiful new home in Big Springs!

2. 2026-02-25
   price $199,900 797-char remark

   Show marketing remark (797 chars)

   Welcome to your new home! This brand new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide offers modern living in a peaceful country setting. Situated on 1.05 acres, this property provides plenty of space to relax, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept layout featuring a spacious living room, stylish kitchen with new appliances, and a cozy dining area perfect for gatherings. The primary suite includes a private bath, while two additional bedrooms offer comfort and versatility. Enjoy the tranquility of rural living with the convenience of being just a short drive to town amenities. With everything brand new and move-in ready, this home is the perfect combination of comfort, space, and value. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautiful new home in Big Springs!

3. 2026-01-31
   historical
4. 2025-11-07
   listed $209,900 Active 797-char remark

   Show marketing remark (797 chars)

   Welcome to your new home! This brand new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide offers modern living in a peaceful country setting. Situated on 1.05 acres, this property provides plenty of space to relax, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept layout featuring a spacious living room, stylish kitchen with new appliances, and a cozy dining area perfect for gatherings. The primary suite includes a private bath, while two additional bedrooms offer comfort and versatility. Enjoy the tranquility of rural living with the convenience of being just a short drive to town amenities. With everything brand new and move-in ready, this home is the perfect combination of comfort, space, and value. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautiful new home in Big Springs!

5. 2025-11-07
   listed $209,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (797 chars)

   Welcome to your new home! This brand new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide offers modern living in a peaceful country setting. Situated on 1.05 acres, this property provides plenty of space to relax, garden, or enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept layout featuring a spacious living room, stylish kitchen with new appliances, and a cozy dining area perfect for gatherings. The primary suite includes a private bath, while two additional bedrooms offer comfort and versatility. Enjoy the tranquility of rural living with the convenience of being just a short drive to town amenities. With everything brand new and move-in ready, this home is the perfect combination of comfort, space, and value. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautiful new home in Big Springs!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,107
• After-tax cash flow: $-50/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meade County
• NCES district ID: 2104050
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,628
• Composite: 38.17/100
• National rank: #4265
• State rank: #21 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ekron

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #14056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,089

Population outlook (Meade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,977 people
• By 2030: 26,162 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 24,029 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 21,658 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 16,994 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 15,586 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Meade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.2% · R 75.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+46.4 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.26%
• Current HPI: 233.0216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $199,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $199,900 HKARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $209,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $209,900 HKARMLS