106 Panorama Dr · Novato, CA 94949

$279,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 19 Days on market

Built 1976 Good condition Est $356k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Privacy, potential, price, & a great floorplan! Covered entry deck makes a cozy outdoor living room, with space for a sectional. The open kitchen has been expanded with stone counters, moveable island, and opens to a family room or formal dining area. The primary suite has 2 closets plus built in cabinets. Spacious en suite offers a shower in addition to the oval soaking tub, dual sinks and plenty of counter space. The screened porches previously functioned as an office and a workshop, and offer potential for more living space. The insulated Tuff Shed offers ample storage. Tucked into hills overlooking wetlands, Marin Valley Mobile Country club (ages 55+) offers low density, resort-sty

Key facts

• Moveable island
• Primary suite
• Built in cabinets

Tags

• COVERED ENTRY DECK
• OPEN KITCHEN
• EXPANDED WITH STONE COUNTERS
• MOVEABLE ISLAND
• PRIMARY SUITE
• BUILT IN CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Novato area
• Financial info: Monthly lot/space rent reported ($761 land lease amount)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No garage (other parking)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; No on-site power production
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Dual wide design; Skirted with metal
• Construction: Double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Located in Marin Valley Mobile Country Club (senior community); Cable available

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Laundry hookups only; Updated/remodeled and fixer condition (some areas may need work)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $961 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $275k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,815 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.76%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $355,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Fallen Leaf Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$191	95
28 Marin Valley Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$390,000	$271	86
15 Scenic Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$325,000	$226	85
9 Fallen Leaf Way	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	0mo	$419,000	$312	83
133 Panorama Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	17mo	$326,000	$226	82
22 Marin Valley Dr	0.10mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$355,000	$247	82
125 Sunrise Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	18mo	$264,500	$184	79
60 Club View Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$165,000	$115	78
16 Fallen Leaf Way	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	20mo	$471,150	$327	78
41 Club View Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	19mo	$501,000	$348	76
177 Marin Valley Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	1mo	$466,000	$303	75
59 Club View Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	12mo	$279,000	$224	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $9,029
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $59,237
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94949

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,657 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,185/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$768
• Net cashflow: $961

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,441

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,153	-5% $1,057	+0% $961	+5% $864	+10% $768
Rent	-10% $672	-5% $816	+0% $961	+5% $1,105	+10% $1,250
Rate	-1.0pp $1,101	-0.5pp $1,032	base $961	+0.5pp $888	+1.0pp $815

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Redhawk Rd Novato, CA	3.0	2.5	1731	$3,950	$2.28	0d	1	0.83mi
130 Pelican Ln Novato, CA	2.0	2.5	1674	$3,925	$2.34	44d	1	0.84mi
158 Roundtree Blvd San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1165	$3,900	$3.35	25d	1	1.20mi
20 North Ave San Rafael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$3,625	$4.55	0d	3	1.26mi
67 Roundtree Blvd San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.5	949	$3,300	$3.48	6d	1	1.29mi
75 Gann Way Novato, CA	3.0	2.5	1822	$5,000	$2.74	15d	1	1.33mi
235 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,225	$2.69	0d	1	1.35mi
98 Gann Way Novato, CA	2.0	2.5	1428	$3,950	$2.77	44d	1	1.37mi
2500 Deer Valley Rd San Rafael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$3,457	$4.10	0d	6	1.37mi
1001 Cresta Way San Rafael, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$3,670	$3.58	2d	21	1.38mi
200 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1125	$2,738	$2.43	0d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $279,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 695-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $289,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,185
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,510
• − Management: −$3,510
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable income: $7,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,808
• After-tax cash flow: $9,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good floor plan and ample outdoor living space. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace the gutters — Improves water drainage and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace the gutters — Improves water drainage and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novato Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627720
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,396
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3576
• State rank: #160 of 517 in CA

Livability — Novato

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #6675

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novato, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 59,522
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,787
• Household income: $120,758
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.06%
• Current HPI: 299.6555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $289,000 BAREIS