24138 Panther Rd · Astor, FL 32102

$156,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1986 0.63 ac lot Est $185k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

Key facts

• Mature tree setting
• Wood deck
• Oversized yard

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• OVERSIZED YARD
• MATURE TREE SETTING
• COVERED CARPORT
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• WOOD DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Property zoned R-7

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Has carport with 2 spaces; Garage 44 x 12
• Security: Hurricane shutters
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); Faces north; One story
• Construction: Metal siding and vinyl siding over frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Enclosed porch; Front porch; Screened porch; Awnings; Hurricane shutters; Outdoor lighting; Shade shutters; Sliding doors; Chain link fencing; Shed(s), storage and workshop; Mature landscaping with oak trees; Cleared, oversized paved lot in county; Public maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Living room / dining room combo; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Walk-in closets; Blinds, drapes, shades and shutters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Outside laundry access; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Creek Charter School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 630 students, 100% FRL, charter); Umatilla High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 861 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 49% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $156k implies a 654% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,805 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.66%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,472
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55045 6th St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	1mo	$160,000	$135	67
23909 Deer Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	11mo	$201,500	$161	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $35,145
• Equity at exit: $61,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $101,452
• Equity at exit: $87,975

Cash invested: $43,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32102

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,819 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$821
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,937/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,326

Max offer price $156,500

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $478	-5% $434	+0% $389	+5% $345	+10% $301
Rent	-10% $246	-5% $318	+0% $389	+5% $461	+10% $533
Rate	-1.0pp $468	-0.5pp $429	base $389	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,125
• Closing costs: $4,695
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24048 Ermine Rd Astor, FL	2.0	2.0	728	$1,450	$1.99	5d	1	0.29mi
56314 Blue Creek Rd Astor, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	18d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-08
   pricestatusdays on market $156,500 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $157,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $157,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $157,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $157,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $157,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $157,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-05-17
   price $158,000
9. 2026-05-13
   price $158,500
10. 2026-05-03
    price $159,000
11. 2026-05-01
    price $159,500
12. 2026-04-22
    listed $159,900 Active
13. 2015-04-28
    soldstatus $20,766 Sold 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

14. 2015-04-01
    status Pending 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

15. 2015-03-25
    price $35,960 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

16. 2015-02-11
    price $40,960 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

17. 2015-01-15
    price $44,460 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

18. 2014-12-16
    price $54,460 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

19. 2014-11-13
    price $64,460 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

20. 2014-10-15
    price $74,460 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

21. 2014-09-09
    listed $80,560 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

22. 2005-08-16
    soldstatus $65,000
23. 2002-08-07
    soldstatus $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,937 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,937 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,766
• − Property taxes: −$1,937
• − Insurance: −$782
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − Depreciation: −$4,553
• Taxable income: $2,293
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$550
• After-tax cash flow: $4,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Astor

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Astor, FL
• Population (ZIP): 2,401

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Portuguese 8% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• Current HPI: 232.7974
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+219.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $158,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $158,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $159,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-28 Sold (MLS) $20,766 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-25 Price Changed $35,960 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-11 Price Changed $40,960 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-15 Price Changed $44,460 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-16 Price Changed $54,460 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-13 Price Changed $64,460 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-15 Price Changed $74,460 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-09 Listed $80,560 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,937 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.