1111 3rd Ave W · Spencer, IA 51301

$180,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1935 4,700 sqft lot Est $168k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Frame This Picture! 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Updated Ranch Home while preserved original character throughout. Front Door Opens to Relaxation in the Roomy Living Room connecting to the Dining Room & Bright Kitchen. 2 Main Floor Bedrooms with Large Closets and Full Bathroom concludes the Main Level. Step down to the Lower Level to find a Master Suite w/ 3/4 Walk-through Bathroom with Tiled Shower, 4th Bedroom and Cozy Sitting Room. Weekends are made for the Spacious Backyard complete with Firepit & Patio. Snap on Over & take a Quick Shot! He who sees will be Pleased! All located steps away from city park and biking/walking trails. Radon Mitigation 2020, A/C 2018, Water Heater 2017, Furnace 2011, Newer Windows.

Key facts

• Mature shade tree
• Large lot
• Radon system

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• NICELY SIZED BACKYARD
• MATURE SHADE TREE
• RADON SYSTEM
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story / single level; Residential property
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric and natural gas forced-air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Partially finished full basement with sump pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($6/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Spencer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#168 in IA, #3,020 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spencer Community School District (town): math 73% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #114 of 289 in IA (top 39%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $152,844 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,832
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1312 4th Ave W	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+11%)	5mo	$185,000	$111	64
720 3rd Ave E	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+4%)	9mo	$160,000	$102	56
701 W 4th St	0.59mi	4/1.0	1,624 (+7%)	3mo	$200,000	$123	51
615 E 13th St	0.66mi	4/1.0	1,567 (+4%)	7mo	$181,000	$116	51
602 E 10th St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,444 (-4%)	6mo	$130,000	$90	46
106 E 10th St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (-14%)	6mo	$112,500	$87	45
105 W 1st St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-2%)	13mo	$164,000	$111	45
504 Elmwood Dr	0.67mi	4/1.0	1,428 (-6%)	13mo	$155,000	$109	43
507 E 9th St	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,331 (-12%)	2mo	$155,000	$116	42
502 E 10th St	0.58mi	4/1.0	1,329 (-12%)	11mo	$107,500	$81	38
410 E 14th St	0.54mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,710 (+13%)	6mo	$145,000	$85	37
1617 5th Ave E	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,324 (-12%)	12mo	$186,000	$140	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-29,134
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-25,325
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51301

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,528 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,256/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,528

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $102	-5% $51	+0% $1	+5% $-50	+10% $-101
Rent	-10% $-120	-5% $-60	+0% $1	+5% $61	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $46	base $1	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
801 9th St SW Unit 910-C5 Spencer, IA	4.0	2.5	1193	$1,599	$1.34	44d	1	1.35mi
801 9th St SW Unit 814-D6 Spencer, IA	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,460	$1.19	44d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $180,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 525-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $180,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,256 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,541 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 12.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,256
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,467
• − Management: −$1,467
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$3,068
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$736
• After-tax cash flow: $743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spencer Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1926910
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,474
• Composite: 61.02/100
• National rank: #797
• State rank: #114 of 289 in IA

Livability — Spencer

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #3020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spencer, IA
• City population: 12,402
• Population (ZIP): 12,402

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,277 people
• By 2030: 16,073 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 15,638 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 15,315 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 15,026 · -7.7%
• By 2100: 14,638 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.8% · R 71.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.7 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.43%
• Current HPI: 192.1741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+263.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $180,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2022-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $156,500 Public Records
• 2022-08-16 Sold (MLS) $156,500 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2022-06-30 Listed $154,900 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2020-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-03 Sold (MLS) $129,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2019-12-16 Listed $131,900 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2017-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $43,625 Public Records
• 2017-01-12 Sold (MLS) $44,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2016-11-08 Listed $49,500 Iowa Great Lakes BOR

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,256 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.