11511 Southern Creek Dr · Gibsonton, FL 33534

$395,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,329 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2017 7,000 sqft lot $68/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this stylish, spacious, and well-kept 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 2,329 sq. ft. of comfortable living in the desirable of South Creek neighborhood of Gibsonton, FL. Built in 2017, this property features a modern layout with an open living area, a well-designed kitchen, and a flexible floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The movie surround system ceiling speakers set up in the living room will make you feel like you are at the movie theater without leaving the comfort of your house. The system will stay for the buyers. The primary suite provides generous space and privacy, while the additional bedrooms extend versatility for guests, work, or hobbies. Resident

Key facts

• Flexible floor plan
• Primary suite
• Open living area

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREA
• WELL-DESIGNED KITCHEN
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• RECREATION CENTER
• INDOOR GYM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage approximately 0.16 acres
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $68 (association required); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20x20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built within last few decades (exact year not provided)
• Exterior features: French doors; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Stone counters
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#479 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,050/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 487% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $304,972 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-61,658
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,886
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33534

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,050 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,854/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,323

Max offer price $356,864

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11521 Southern Creek Dr Gibsonton, FL	4.0	3.5	2650	$3,199	$1.21	11d	1	0.07mi
11634 Tangle Stone Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1911	$2,256	$1.18	21d	1	0.27mi
11220 Gold Compass St Gibsonton, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,199	$1.34	23d	1	0.32mi
8103 Tar Hollow Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.5	1792	$2,700	$1.51	24d	1	0.67mi
12113 Fox Bloom Ave Gibsonton, FL	3.0	3.0	2540	$2,800	$1.10	24d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $395,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,854 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,854 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$3,854
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,928
• − Management: −$2,928
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$9,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,285
• After-tax cash flow: $-306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gibsonton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #8752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gibsonton, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 17,740
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,740
• Household income: $80,484
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 36% Two or more races 23% Black 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.07%
• Current HPI: 323.4367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $395,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-23 Listed $434,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+58.1%/yr

Latest (2019): $3,854 · -13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.