3908 Navaho Ln · Lake, PA 18436

$250,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,840 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

Built 1975 0.36 ac lot Est $403k · 38% under $180/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Value! Tons of space at a fair price. Move right in and enjoy it today or perform some simple TLC and updates to make it your own. Home is located on a very nice level lot close to golfing, pool, fitness, lakes and more. Main level offers a Living Room, Family room, and office area, while the lower level has a massive Rec Room, wet bar and more. , Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Beds Description: 1BedLL, Baths: 1 Bath Level L, Baths: 2 Bath Lev 1, Eating Area: Dining Area

Key facts

• Gated community
• Finished basement
• Year-round amenities

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• GATED COMMUNITY
• YEAR-ROUND AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $250k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $227,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.72%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $403,200
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3908 Navaho Ln	0.00mi	4/3.0	3,840 (0%)	1mo	$265,957	$69	99
4 Slate Ct	0.59mi	4/2.5	4,080 (+6%)	19mo	$430,000	$105	44
120 Rockway Rd	0.74mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,558 (-7%)	8mo	$602,500	$169	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $146,396
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.05×
• Total profit: $423,477
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,615 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,415

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-21
   price $250,000
3. 2025-12-19
   listed $275,000 Active
4. 2017-05-19
   soldstatus $105,000 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   Great Value! Tons of space at a fair price. Move right in and enjoy it today or perform some simple TLC and updates to make it your own. Home is located on a very nice level lot close to golfing, pool, fitness, lakes and more. Main level offers a Living Room, Family room, and office area, while the lower level has a massive Rec Room, wet bar and more. , Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Beds Description: 1BedLL, Baths: 1 Bath Level L, Baths: 2 Bath Lev 1, Eating Area: Dining Area

5. 2017-04-05
   listed $124,999 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   Great Value! Tons of space at a fair price. Move right in and enjoy it today or perform some simple TLC and updates to make it your own. Home is located on a very nice level lot close to golfing, pool, fitness, lakes and more. Main level offers a Living Room, Family room, and office area, while the lower level has a massive Rec Room, wet bar and more. , Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Beds Description: 1BedLL, Baths: 1 Bath Level L, Baths: 2 Bath Lev 1, Eating Area: Dining Area

6. 2004-01-29
   soldstatus $134,000 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Large 4 bdrm, 3 bath home with den, laundry room, extra large family room with bar. In move-in condition. Hardwood floors under carpet. Must see to appreciate!, SqFt Fin - Main: 1980.00, SqFt Fin - 3rd: 0.00, SqFt Fin - 2nd: 0.00

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,511
• − Management: −$2,511
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$2,074
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$498
• After-tax cash flow: $2,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Hideout, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+86.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $250,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-12-19 Listed $275,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2017-05-19 Sold (MLS) $105,000 PWMLS
• 2017-04-05 Listed $124,999 PWMLS
• 2004-01-29 Sold (MLS) $134,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID