129 Wagoner Ln · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$400,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,967 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1975 1.02 ac lot Est $356k · 12% over $250/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0

Listing remarks

Spacious And Well-Maintained Ranch Home Situated On Over An Acre And Adjoining Approximately 85 Acres Of Community Greenbelt For Added Privacy, Scenic Woodland Views, And Access To York Creek Flowing Through The Greenbelt. This 3-Bedroom, 3.5-Bath Home Features A Mostly Finished Walkout Lower Level, Offering Exceptional Flexibility For Extended Living, Guests, Home Office Space, Recreation, Or Multi-Generational Living. The Main Level Showcases Hardwood Flooring, An Open Concept Living And Dining Area, Brick Fireplace With Raised Hearth, Abundant Natural Light, And A Bright Eat-In Kitchen With Center Island, Breakfast Bar, Extensive Cabinetry, And Generous Counter Space. Storage Is Exceptio

Key facts

• 1.02 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Hemlock Farms
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (paid annually); Association amenities include gated community, security, clubhouse, indoor pool and spa/hot tub, fitness center and exercise course, trails and jogging paths, tennis and sport courts, recreation facilities and rooms (billiard, game, party), picnic areas, dog park, golf course, parking and pool; Association fee includes trash and security

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 10 parking spaces; 2 covered/garage spaces in an attached heated garage with inside entrance (side-by-side); 8 open parking spaces; Circular driveway, driveway with direct access, off-street paved on-site parking pad, private parking with storage
• Security: 24-hour security, security gate and security guard; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers; Propane available; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family house; North-facing; Entry at front, entry level 1; Vertical siding
• Construction: Asphalt/fiberglass shingle roof; Vertical siding construction; Slab or permanent foundation; Built in 1,967 above-grade finished area with finished below-grade living space
• Exterior features: Private yard with landscaped grounds, many trees and wooded areas; Rain gutters and exterior lighting; Shed(s) and guest house; Porch, covered rear porch, deck; French doors, sliding doors and storm doors; Private road frontage with paved surface and private road maintenance agreement; Greenbelt, level and sloped areas, front and back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Propane cooktop and cooktop; Electric oven and range; Refrigerator; Freezer; Dishwasher; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Accessible bedroom(s); His and hers closets and walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard and electric heating; Propane stove and propane heating; Ceiling fans; Wall units for cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar and eat-in kitchen with kitchen island; Pantry; Dry bar and bar; Laminate counters; High and vaulted ceilings; Open floorplan; Chandelier and recessed lighting; Built-in features and storage; High speed internet and wired for data; Ceiling fans; Bay windows, skylights, storm windows with aluminum frames, double-pane windows, blinds and drapes; Two masonry fireplaces (basement and family room) with stone, glass doors, raised hearth and free-standing propane feature
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup on main level; Laundry located inside on main level; Dehumidifier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $400k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wallenpaupack South El Sch (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 255 students, 72% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Ms (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 644 students, 59% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Hs (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #48 of 437 statewide, top 11%, 990 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 44% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $400k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $400,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.94%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $356,027
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Surrey Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,820 (-8%)	13mo	$330,000	$181	59
115 Rodeo Ln	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,835 (-7%)	17mo	$325,000	$177	49
131 Highland Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,907 (-3%)	21mo	$390,000	$205	46
137 Lookout Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,896 (-4%)	16mo	$315,000	$166	46
112 Boulder Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,070 (+5%)	19mo	$385,000	$186	45
800 Peyton Pl	0.55mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,160 (+10%)	8mo	$480,000	$222	44
126 Granite Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,820 (-8%)	18mo	$360,000	$198	42
122 Remuda Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-14%)	17mo	$250,000	$147	40
119 Rodeo Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,724 (-12%)	12mo	$290,000	$168	39
100 West End Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,727 (-12%)	18mo	$265,000	$153	39
137 Rodeo Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,742 (-11%)	10mo	$351,500	$202	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $235,447
• Equity at exit: $360,352

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $679,889
• Equity at exit: $777,112

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,458/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,653

Max offer price $400,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $501	-5% $387	+0% $274	+5% $161	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $116	+0% $274	+5% $432	+10% $590
Rate	-1.0pp $476	-0.5pp $376	base $274	+0.5pp $171	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Corral Ln Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2150	$4,000	$1.86	6d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on marketlisting id $400,000 Pending
2. 2026-06-17
   status $400,000 Pending 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $400,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $400,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $400,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $400,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,458 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,389 · $449/mo
• Expected delta: +$931/yr (+$78/mo · 20.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$4,458
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,840
• − Management: −$3,840
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$3,181
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$763
• After-tax cash flow: $4,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $400,000 PMAR
• 1991-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,458 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.