806 Post Oak Dr · Alamo, TX 78516

$109,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 171 Days on market

Built 2002 6,598 sqft lot Est $73k · 49% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,216 sq ft of comfortable living space. Nestled in an excellent location near I-2, shopping centers, restaurants, schools, and more! Convenience is at your doorstep. Property highlights include: Spacious split-layout with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths; One-car carport with gated driveway access; Privacy fence on all three sides for added security; Mature trees providing shade and curb appeal; Handy storage buildings for extra space; Easy access to major roads, dining, and retail. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or investing, this home checks all the boxes. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Easy access
• Privacy fence
• Storage buildings

Tags

• GATED DRIVEWAY ACCESS
• PRIVACY FENCE
• MATURE TREES
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.7% in Alamo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#916 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Donna ISD (suburban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #821 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Capt D Salinas Ii El (math 16% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 416 students, 96% FRL); A P Solis Middle (math 8% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,602 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 666 students, 93% FRL); Donna H S (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 2,095 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 48% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.67%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1001 Las Flores Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,174 (-4%)	6mo	$70,000	$60	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-8,448
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,586
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78516

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,157 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,837/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $975

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 E Crockett Ave Alamo, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	43d	1	0.36mi
311 E Crockett Ave Unit 9 Alamo, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	43d	1	0.62mi
311 E Crockett Ave Apt 54 Alamo, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	23d	1	0.65mi
311 E Crockett Ave Unit 21 Alamo, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	43d	1	0.65mi
428 E Acacia Ave Unit 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,300	$1.25	23d	1	0.76mi
436 E Acacia Ave Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,225	$1.08	14d	1	0.76mi
444 E Acacia Ave Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	23d	1	0.77mi
438 Alma Ave Alamo, TX	4.0	2.0	1392	$1,600	$1.15	14d	1	1.02mi
837 S 13th St Alamo, TX	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,095	$0.99	14d	1	1.10mi
913 S 13th St Unit 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,050	$1.04	43d	1	1.16mi
504 San Antonio Cir Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,600	$1.32	14d	1	1.46mi
422 S Val Verde Rd Unit 186 Donna, TX	3.0	2.0	960	$850	$0.89	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   historical Option
3. 2026-01-06
   price $109,000
4. 2025-10-13
   listed $119,000 Active
5. 2001-08-30
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,837 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,995 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$157/yr (+$13/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,837
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,111
• − Management: −$1,111
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $8
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2
• After-tax cash flow: $1,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Donna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $27,330
• Composite: 11.16/100
• National rank: #9728
• State rank: #821 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alamo

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #916
• US rank: #16356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamo, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 34,370
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,370
• Household income: $53,229
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 476.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 40% White 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 86%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.56%
• Current HPI: 225.4438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-27 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $109,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $119,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2001-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,837 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.