1045 Apple Blossom Ln · Green Level, NC 27217

$164,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1998 0.45 ac lot Est $207k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1045 Apple Blossom Ln is a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home situated on a 0.45-acre lot in the Deer Run community. The interior features an open floor plan and a primary bedroom with an ensuite bath. Located in Alamance County. Sold as-is. Please see agent remarks for showing availability.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Deer run community
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ENSUITE BATH
• DEER RUN COMMUNITY
• ALAMANCE COUNTY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Subdivision: Deer Run

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1998; Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Public-maintained road access; Lot approximately 0.45 acres; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (electric)
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located on the main level; Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#460 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $164k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,080 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.30%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,712
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1034 Apple Blossom Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+12%)	7mo	$140,000	$106	72
2006 Sam Gwynn Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+7%)	4mo	$220,900	$174	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-11,952
• Equity at exit: $24,453

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-31
• Equity at exit: $14,180

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27217

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $372	-5% $326	+0% $279	+5% $233	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $151	-5% $215	+0% $279	+5% $344	+10% $408
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $321	base $279	+0.5pp $237	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1206 N NC Highway 49 Burlington, NC	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,375	$1.28	22d	1	0.36mi
127 Telegraph Ln Burlington, NC	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,850	$1.41	22d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $164,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $174,000 Active
18. 2021-04-01
    historical
19. 2021-03-30
    historical
20. 2021-02-22
    listed $109,900 Active
21. 2021-02-22
    listed $109,900
22. 2019-06-06
    soldstatus $89,500
23. 2016-03-15
    historical
24. 2014-10-02
    listed $59,900
25. 2011-08-22
    historical
26. 2009-09-16
    listed $71,500
27. 1998-08-19
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,345 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$363/yr (+$30/mo · 37.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable income: $696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$167
• After-tax cash flow: $3,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Green Level

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #16840

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 41,406
• Household income: $51,950
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.45%
• Current HPI: 259.8107
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+815.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $174,000 Triad MLS
• 2021-04-01 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2021-03-30 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2021-02-22 Listed $109,900 TMLS
• 2021-02-22 Listed $109,900 TMLS
• 2019-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 2016-03-15 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2014-10-02 Listed $59,900 TMLS
• 2011-08-22 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2009-09-16 Listed $71,500 TMLS
• 1998-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $982 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.