615 E 13th St · Erie, PA 16503

$159,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,336 sqft · MultiFamily public records

Built 1902

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled 2 unit -- Tenants moving in June 1st ---New Windows throughout. New Roof / carpeting / vinyl flooring, freshly painted. First floor is hot water heating and laundry hookups in basement. Second floor is forced air gas and laundry hookups on second floor. Each unit has Large Livingroom / Formal Dining Room and eat-in kitchen - 2 bedrooms and full bath w new flooring

Key facts

• Built 1902

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $265/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $159k implies a 380% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.27%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
612 E 14th St	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,522 (+8%)	4mo	$70,000	$28	82
646 E 8th St	0.39mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,347 (+0%)	4mo	$60,000	$26	72
746 E 12th St	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,240 (-4%)	15mo	$58,000	$26	71
742 E 10th St	0.30mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,514 (+8%)	8mo	$60,000	$24	61
1905 Ash St #2	0.39mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,279 (-2%)	14mo	$38,500	$17	61
815 Parade St	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,102 (-10%)	2mo	$45,000	$21	61
743 E 13th St	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,640 (+13%)	13mo	$59,000	$22	54
327 E 7th St	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,184 (-6%)	10mo	$80,327	$37	54
859 E 23rd St	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,234 (-4%)	2mo	$35,000	$16	54
536 E 7th St	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,112 (-10%)	12mo	$70,000	$33	52
730-32 E 8th St	0.42mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,033 (-13%)	4mo	$65,000	$32	51
310 E 23rd St	0.74mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,224 (-5%)	7mo	$55,000	$25	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $77,051
• Equity at exit: $97,253

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $200,907
• Equity at exit: $174,079

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16503

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,306/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,277

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 68%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,946
Total (2 units)			$1,947

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   remarks 389-char remark
2. 2026-06-01
   listed $159,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,306 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,909 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$603/yr (+$50/mo · 46.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,306
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $3,993
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$958
• After-tax cash flow: $5,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,204

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.73%
• Current HPI: 135.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+380.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Delisted — GEBOR
• 2026-05-30 Listed $159,000 GEBOR
• 2009-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $33,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,306 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.