15 Twin Lakes Rd · Winder, GA 30680

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2002 0.47 ac lot $205/sqft · at area comps Est $232k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Steps away from Lower Twin Lake! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch-style home offers the perfect blend of peaceful lakeside living and everyday convenience. Inside you'll immediately step into a spacious living room, followed by the kitchen with ample counter space, a dedicated dining area, and a utility closet. The primary suite provides a generous sized walk-in closet and full bath while two additional bedrooms share another full bath. Outside you'll find a fenced in backyard, outbuilding, and a serene environment with tall trees and greenery. If you're seeking a residence with nature at your doorstep, this property is the perfect opportunity!

Key facts

• Outbuilding
• Fenced in backyard
• Tall trees

Tags

• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• OUTBUILDING
• TALL TREES
• GREENERY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Open parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available; Electric service listed as 'Other'
• Home design: One-level home; Vinyl siding; Resale property; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Backyard fencing; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; No special kitchen features listed
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level); Master bathroom: None listed
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Shutters; No common walls
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in kitchen; Separate laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.9% in Winder — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#47 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Barrow County (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holsenbeck Elementary School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #474 of 1,228 statewide, top 39%, 823 students, 57% FRL); Bear Creek Middle School (math 27% / reading 41%, grade F, #201 of 470 statewide, top 44%, 673 students, 52% FRL); Winder-Barrow High School (math 14% / reading 24%, grade F, #250 of 424 statewide, top 60%, 1,787 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 565 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,427 units permitted in Barrow County in 2024 (311 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barrow County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,586 (3.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.64%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,935
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -2.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Twin Lakes Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,096 (0%)	2mo	$166,500	$152	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-19,243
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $855
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30680

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 565
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,166 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,693/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,791

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $424	-5% $360	+0% $296	+5% $233	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $211	+0% $296	+5% $382	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $410	-0.5pp $354	base $296	+0.5pp $238	+1.0pp $179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
542 Scrooch Ct Winder, GA	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,745	$1.52	0d	1	1.34mi
547 Scrooch Ct Winder, GA	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,745	$1.48	0d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $225,000 Active 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Steps away from Lower Twin Lake! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch-style home offers the perfect blend of peaceful lakeside living and everyday convenience. Inside you'll immediately step into a spacious living room, followed by the kitchen with ample counter space, a dedicated dining area, and a utility closet. The primary suite provides a generous sized walk-in closet and full bath while two additional bedrooms share another full bath. Outside you'll find a fenced in backyard, outbuilding, and a serene environment with tall trees and greenery. If you're seeking a residence with nature at your doorstep, this property is the perfect opportunity!

2. 2026-05-15
   listed $225,000 New 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   Steps away from Lower Twin Lake! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch-style home offers the perfect blend of peaceful lakeside living and everyday convenience. Inside you'll immediately step into a spacious living room, followed by the kitchen with ample counter space, a dedicated dining area, and a utility closet. The primary suite provides a generous sized walk-in closet and full bath while two additional bedrooms share another full bath. Outside you'll find a fenced in backyard, outbuilding, and a serene environment with tall trees and greenery. If you're seeking a residence with nature at your doorstep, this property is the perfect opportunity!

3. 2026-05-04
   soldstatus $166,500 Sold

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   Priced low enough to update paint and floors to complete this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on wooded, fenced lot!

4. 2026-04-25
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   Priced low enough to update paint and floors to complete this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on wooded, fenced lot!

5. 2026-04-13
   status Back On Market

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   Priced low enough to update paint and floors to complete this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on wooded, fenced lot!

6. 2026-04-02
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   Priced low enough to update paint and floors to complete this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on wooded, fenced lot!

7. 2026-03-24
   price $269,000

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   Priced low enough to update paint and floors to complete this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on wooded, fenced lot!

8. 2026-03-05
   listed $279,000 New

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   Priced low enough to update paint and floors to complete this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on wooded, fenced lot!

9. 2026-01-31
   historical
10. 2025-11-03
    status Price Change
11. 2025-11-03
    price $289,000
12. 2025-05-23
    status Under Contract
13. 2025-05-05
    listed $299,900 New
14. 2007-12-31
    historical
15. 2005-03-09
    listed $104,900
16. 2002-02-19
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,693 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,070 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 22.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,693
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,079
• − Management: −$2,079
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$32
• After-tax cash flow: $3,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barrow County
• NCES district ID: 1300290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,082
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6921
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

Livability — Winder

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #5120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Barrow County · 133,377 people
• City population: 48,388
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 48,388
• Household income: $80,956
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 622.0

Population outlook (Barrow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,670 people
• By 2030: 92,039 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 101,992 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 110,075 · +27.0%
• By 2075: 124,017 · +43.1%
• By 2100: 127,579 · +47.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Barrow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.5% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+50.4 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.21%
• Current HPI: 229.5804
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+462.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-29 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-05-21 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-05-21 Contingent — FMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $225,000 FMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $225,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $166,500 Public Records
• 2026-05-04 Sold (MLS) $166,500 GAMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-02 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $269,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $279,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-11-03 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $289,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-23 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $299,900 GAMLS
• 2007-12-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2005-03-09 Listed $104,900 Hive MLS
• 2002-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,693 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.