853 Newman Trl · Ozark Acres, AR 72482

$52,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,228 sqft · Manufactured · 618 Days on market

Built 1989 0.25 ac lot $43/sqft · 44% below area Est $93k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Close to Vagabond lake. Great fishing and great swimming area

Key facts

• Great fishing area
• Great swimming area
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• CLOSE TO VAGABOND LAKE
• GREAT FISHING AREA
• GREAT SWIMMING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($911 rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Highland School District (town): math 43% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #66 of 238 in AR (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cherokee Elementary School (math 58% / reading 40%, grade D, #108 of 454 statewide, top 24%, 594 students, 100% FRL); Highland Middle School (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #105 of 201 statewide, top 52%, 492 students, 100% FRL); Highland High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #62 of 292 statewide, top 21%, 526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 56% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Sharp County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $363 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $998 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sharp County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 618 days — a 12% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $52k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $46,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 618 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.11%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,278
• List price: $52,500
• Delta: -43.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $19,765
• Equity at exit: $10,441

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $52,611
• Equity at exit: $9,157

Cash invested: $14,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72482

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $911 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$275
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $204/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $398

Max offer price $52,500

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $435	-5% $420	+0% $406	+5% $391	+10% $376
Rent	-10% $334	-5% $370	+0% $406	+5% $442	+10% $478
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $419	base $406	+0.5pp $392	+1.0pp $378

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,125
• Closing costs: $1,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $52,500 Active 618 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $52,500 Active 616 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $52,500 Active 615 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $52,500 Active 614 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $52,500 Active 613 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $52,500 Active 612 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $52,500 Active 610 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $52,500 Active 609 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,500 Active 606 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $52,500 Active 605 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $52,500 Active 604 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $52,500 Active 600 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,500 Active 599 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,500 Active 598 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,500 Active 597 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,500 Active 596 DOM
17. 2024-08-01
    listed $52,500 New Listing 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Close to Vagabond lake. Great fishing and great swimming area

18. 2001-11-14
    soldstatus $15,000
19. 1997-06-06
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $204 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $336 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: +$132/yr (+$11/mo · 64.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,941
• − Property taxes: −$204
• − Insurance: −$262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$875
• − Management: −$875
• − Depreciation: −$1,527
• Taxable income: $4,249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,020
• After-tax cash flow: $3,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highland School District
• NCES district ID: 0507770
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,066
• Composite: 33.63/100
• National rank: #5400
• State rank: #66 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ozark Acres

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ozark Acres, AR
• Population (ZIP): 1,481

Population outlook (Sharp County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,170 people
• By 2030: 15,711 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 14,974 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 14,420 · -10.8%
• By 2075: 13,235 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 11,492 · -28.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sharp

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 17.7% · R 80.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+60.0 2016: R+54.7 2012: R+38.8 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.90%
• Current HPI: 194.2165
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+138.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-01 Listed $52,500 CARMLS
• 2001-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $204 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.