9518 Travertine Ct · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$274,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious Two-Story Living with LVP Flooring and First-Floor Guest Suite The Magellan is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,260 square feet with 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. One bedroom and a full bath are located on the first floor, ideal for guests or flexible living. The open-concept main level features LVP flooring throughout the main living areas and a modern kitchen with granite countertops, a large island, soft close cabinets and drawers, and stainless steel appliances, creating a seamless flow for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs includes a spacious game room and a private primary suite with a walk-in closet and en suite bath. Located in the S

Key facts

• Large island
• Soft close cabinets
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR GUEST SUITE
• LVP FLOORING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: Stonebrooke Community Association with an annual association fee of $550

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by Starlight Homes; Cement siding; Year built: 2026
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fully fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 15.5 x 15); Second-level bedroom (approx. 15.5 x 10.5); Second-level bedroom (approx. 12 x 13); First-level bedroom (approx. 11 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included

🏗️ New construction. The $274,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $291,540.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $241,066 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,540
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9151 Stonebrooke Chase Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,260 (0%)	3mo	$291,000	$129	96
9428 Beryl Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,260 (0%)	2mo	$287,800	$127	89
9384 Beryl Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,260 (0%)	2mo	$297,800	$132	88
9159 Stonebrooke Chase Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-6%)	2mo	$277,000	$131	85
9437 Beryl Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-6%)	1mo	$272,500	$128	77
9404 Beryl Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-6%)	1mo	$274,300	$129	77
9376 Beryl Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-6%)	2mo	$234,990	$111	76
9349 Beryl Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-6%)	3mo	$219,990	$104	75
9340 Hard Rock Rd	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,025 (-10%)	3mo	$254,900	$126	75
12859 Lime Stone Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,025 (-10%)	3mo	$261,400	$129	73
9160 Wapiti Trl	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,442 (+8%)	1mo	$479,000	$196	49
9106 Wapiti Trl	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,542 (+12%)	3mo	$450,000	$177	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-64,200
• Equity at exit: $43,470

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-95,766
• Equity at exit: $25,207

Cash invested: $81,631 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,529
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,373/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,609

Max offer price $268,916

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $-56	+0% $-156	+5% $-257	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-252	+0% $-156	+5% $-61	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-82	base $-156	+0.5pp $-232	+1.0pp $-309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,885
• Closing costs: $8,746
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12446 Willis Waukegan Rd Conroe, TX	5.0	3.5	2892	$3,500	$1.21	45d	1	0.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,990 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,990 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,990 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,990 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,990 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,990 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $274,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,331
• − Property taxes: −$4,373
• − Insurance: −$1,458
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,314
• − Management: −$2,314
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,481
• Taxable loss: −$6,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,655
• After-tax cash flow: $-221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a spacious layout. It is move-in ready and offers high ROI potential through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replacing LVP flooring with hardwood or tile — Improves durability and adds value
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replacing LVP flooring with hardwood or tile — Improves durability and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $274,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listed $288,040 HARMLS