1444 Ridge Lake Ct · Combee Settlement, FL 33801

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1987 3,311 sqft lot $180/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2/1.5 townhome in South East Lakeland. Features new flooring and fresh paint.

Key facts

• Natural light
• Functional layout
• Convenient location

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• QUICK ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• QUICK ACCESS TO DINING
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: Empire association (monthly fee $180) — fee includes sewer and other services; Association fee required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two stories; Faces east; Entry level: Two levels
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with 960 living area (public records)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.38%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-17,868
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-17,750
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,497 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,584/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,362

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $145	+0% $106	+5% $68	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $-12	-5% $47	+0% $106	+5% $166	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $141	base $106	+0.5pp $71	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1452 Ridge Lake Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,700	$1.77	22d	1	0.04mi
2625 Kelly Ln Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	560	$1,200	$2.14	24d	1	0.58mi
2437 Idlewild St Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,099	$2.00	24d	1	0.69mi
2437 Idlewild St Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,099	$2.00	15d	1	0.69mi
2415 Idlewild St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	24d	1	0.72mi
832 N Combee Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	560	$1,195	$2.13	24d	1	0.88mi
2417 Golfview St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	798	$1,395	$1.75	11d	1	1.03mi
2248 Weber St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	640	$1,335	$2.09	4d	1	1.23mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	24d	1	1.41mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	15d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   price $135,000
3. 2026-03-12
   listed $150,000 Active
4. 2025-12-24
   historical $950
5. 2025-10-24
   listed $950
6. 2022-10-28
   soldstatus $168,500
7. 2022-10-25
   soldstatus $168,500 Closed 77-char remark

   Show marketing remark (77 chars)

   2/1.5 townhome in South East Lakeland. Features new flooring and fresh paint.

8. 2022-09-01
   status Pending 77-char remark

   Show marketing remark (77 chars)

   2/1.5 townhome in South East Lakeland. Features new flooring and fresh paint.

9. 2022-08-22
   listed $165,000 Active 77-char remark

   Show marketing remark (77 chars)

   2/1.5 townhome in South East Lakeland. Features new flooring and fresh paint.

10. 2005-07-21
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,584
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,437
• − Management: −$1,437
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$819
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$196
• After-tax cash flow: $1,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Combee Settlement

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8672

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Combee Settlement, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+107.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-24 Rental Removed $950 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-10-24 Listed for Rent $950 TURBOTENANT
• 2022-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $168,500 Public Records
• 2022-10-25 Sold (MLS) $168,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-22 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,584 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.