39601 Elgin Dr · Zephyrhills North, FL 33542

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 307 Days on market

Built 1973 7,800 sqft lot Est $70k · 43% over $29/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GEM ESTATES! Love where you live and live where you love! Have you been searching for the perfect place to make home? Well then check out this super cute single-wide mobile home in the PET FRIENDLY park of Gem Estates. You and your fur baby will love being here. This home has a fantastic glassed in FLORIDA room that is absolutely perfect for extra space to entertain, have a family room, or if you need extra space for an office this could work as well. Interior features include 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and stackable washer and dryer in the hall and nicely updated flooring in most rooms. This park has lots that are larger than most parks, great club house and shuffleboard if you like to join in with the activities. Low HOA fees of 300.00 a year and that includes your water, where else can you find living this inexpensive? Call today to view this home before it is too late!

Key facts

• New drywall
• New stove
• 7,800 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEWER RAW WOOD CABINETS
• CUSTOM TILED COUNTERTOPS
• NEW ELECTRICAL OUTLETS
• NEW DRYWALL
• MOST WINDOWS REPLACED
• NEW STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Gem Estates HOA (association approval required); Annual association fee of $350 (includes water); monthly equivalent $29.17; Association recreation owned; Golf carts allowed; Street lights; Senior community; Pets allowed; Association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Public water (available and connected); Septic tank; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); Residential property; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal roof; Built on foundation (details from public records)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Chain link fence; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen open to family room; Open floorplan; Window treatments (blinds and drapes)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 7.6% in Zephyrhills North — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 802 students, 82% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.92%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,888
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39612 Sterling Dr	0.13mi	2/1.5	672 (0%)	2mo	$85,000	$126	90
39107 Hillcrest Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	2mo	$77,000	$115	68
39301 Maher Dr	0.50mi	1/1.0 (-1)	639 (-5%)	9mo	$66,500	$104	52
6349 20th St	0.73mi	2/1.0	644 (-4%)	6mo	$37,000	$57	50
39206 Hillcrest Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0	576 (-14%)	7mo	$25,000	$43	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-425
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $11,112
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $209/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $775

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $329	+0% $301	+5% $159	+10% $125
Rent	-10% $210	-5% $255	+0% $301	+5% $347	+10% $392
Rate	-1.0pp $351	-0.5pp $327	base $301	+0.5pp $275	+1.0pp $249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5603 Eugene Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	14d	1	0.39mi
5548 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	14d	1	0.41mi
5552 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	26d	1	0.45mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	26d	1	0.46mi
39029 Kirkland Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$950	$1.90	26d	1	0.66mi
39041 Manor Dr Unit B Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	450	$1,000	$2.22	26d	1	0.79mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	6d	1	0.90mi
5217 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,050	$1.94	26d	1	1.07mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	26d	1	1.21mi
5426 8th St #1 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$1,150	$2.66	26d	1	1.26mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	11d	1	1.28mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	0d	1	1.33mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	18d	1	1.34mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	6d	1	1.34mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	0d	1	1.34mi
38941 C Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	520	$1,050	$2.02	6d	1	1.35mi
38706 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	445	$974	$2.19	18d	2	1.40mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	26d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 307 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 306 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 305 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 304 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 302 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 297 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 296 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 293 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 292 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 291 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 290 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 289 DOM
14. 2026-02-10
    price $99,900
15. 2025-12-31
    price $105,000
16. 2025-08-15
    listed $110,000 Active
17. 2022-03-21
    soldstatus $72,000 Closed 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    GEM ESTATES! Love where you live and live where you love! Have you been searching for the perfect place to make home? Well then check out this super cute single-wide mobile home in the PET FRIENDLY park of Gem Estates. You and your fur baby will love being here. This home has a fantastic glassed in FLORIDA room that is absolutely perfect for extra space to entertain, have a family room, or if you need extra space for an office this could work as well. Interior features include 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and stackable washer and dryer in the hall and nicely updated flooring in most rooms. This park has lots that are larger than most parks, great club house and shuffleboard if you like to join in with the activities. Low HOA fees of 300.00 a year and that includes your water, where else can you find living this inexpensive? Call today to view this home before it is too late!

18. 2022-03-18
    soldstatus $72,000
19. 2022-03-09
    status Pending 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    GEM ESTATES! Love where you live and live where you love! Have you been searching for the perfect place to make home? Well then check out this super cute single-wide mobile home in the PET FRIENDLY park of Gem Estates. You and your fur baby will love being here. This home has a fantastic glassed in FLORIDA room that is absolutely perfect for extra space to entertain, have a family room, or if you need extra space for an office this could work as well. Interior features include 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and stackable washer and dryer in the hall and nicely updated flooring in most rooms. This park has lots that are larger than most parks, great club house and shuffleboard if you like to join in with the activities. Low HOA fees of 300.00 a year and that includes your water, where else can you find living this inexpensive? Call today to view this home before it is too late!

20. 2022-03-01
    price $74,900 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    GEM ESTATES! Love where you live and live where you love! Have you been searching for the perfect place to make home? Well then check out this super cute single-wide mobile home in the PET FRIENDLY park of Gem Estates. You and your fur baby will love being here. This home has a fantastic glassed in FLORIDA room that is absolutely perfect for extra space to entertain, have a family room, or if you need extra space for an office this could work as well. Interior features include 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and stackable washer and dryer in the hall and nicely updated flooring in most rooms. This park has lots that are larger than most parks, great club house and shuffleboard if you like to join in with the activities. Low HOA fees of 300.00 a year and that includes your water, where else can you find living this inexpensive? Call today to view this home before it is too late!

21. 2022-02-04
    listed $79,900 Active 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    GEM ESTATES! Love where you live and live where you love! Have you been searching for the perfect place to make home? Well then check out this super cute single-wide mobile home in the PET FRIENDLY park of Gem Estates. You and your fur baby will love being here. This home has a fantastic glassed in FLORIDA room that is absolutely perfect for extra space to entertain, have a family room, or if you need extra space for an office this could work as well. Interior features include 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and stackable washer and dryer in the hall and nicely updated flooring in most rooms. This park has lots that are larger than most parks, great club house and shuffleboard if you like to join in with the activities. Low HOA fees of 300.00 a year and that includes your water, where else can you find living this inexpensive? Call today to view this home before it is too late!

22. 2018-12-28
    soldstatus $34,900 Sold 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Fully furnished two bedroom mobile home in Gem Estates. This unit is conveniently located to the clubhouse which is an active association. Gem Estates provides easy access to shopping and medical in Zephyrhills. Excellent opportunity for winter residents to purchase this furnished mobile home.

23. 2018-10-25
    status Pending 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Fully furnished two bedroom mobile home in Gem Estates. This unit is conveniently located to the clubhouse which is an active association. Gem Estates provides easy access to shopping and medical in Zephyrhills. Excellent opportunity for winter residents to purchase this furnished mobile home.

24. 2017-11-22
    listed $39,900 Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Fully furnished two bedroom mobile home in Gem Estates. This unit is conveniently located to the clubhouse which is an active association. Gem Estates provides easy access to shopping and medical in Zephyrhills. Excellent opportunity for winter residents to purchase this furnished mobile home.

25. 1999-02-04
    soldstatus $25,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $209 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$620/yr (+$52/mo · 296.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$209
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,110
• − Management: −$1,110
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$502
• After-tax cash flow: $3,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills North

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #18026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills North, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+287.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-21 Sold (MLS) $72,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-01 Price Changed $74,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-04 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-28 Sold (MLS) $34,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-22 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $25,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $209 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.