1535 45th Avenue Dr E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1979 4,530 sqft lot Est $129k · 47% over $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a community - not just a house? Welcome to this corner lot in Tidevue Estates, a LAND OWNED 55+ community! This home is well maintained and move-in ready with all matching stainless steel appliances, and light fixtures in your new kitchen, complete with eat in island, and brand new microwave, plus a Keurig coffee maker! As an added bonus, the washer and dryer also comes with the house and is located in the oversized shed, with plenty of room for storage. Bring your toothbrush and your clothes and settle in for a sunny winter in Florida! Enjoy your coffee or favorite adult beverage in the lanai and enjoy the relaxing view. There are plenty of activities to keep you busy in your new neighborhood. Take a water aerobics class in the solar-heated community pool or work on your tan. The community library has free WI-FI connection and an updated fitness room. Make plans with your friends and make new ones for a game of indoor pickleball, bocce ball, RC Flying, or shuffleboard. Join the Golf League or go boating. Take a bike or golf cart ride to Veteran's park to watch the wildlife and the spectacular sunsets. If shopping is your thing the Ellenton Premium Outlet Mall, right off the I-75, is less than 5 minutes away, with lots of restaurants to choose from! From your new home base, explore: the laid back Gulf Coast beach vibe, Sarasota, Tampa, Disney, the University Town Center Mall, St. Armands Circle, Selby Botanical Gardens, and the Ringling Mansion & Museum of Art - to name just a few points of interest! Trade in that snow shovel for some suntan lotion and enjoy The Tidevue Lifestyle Today! WELCOME HOME - ALL THAT'S MISSING IS YOU!!

Key facts

• New a/c system
• Brand-new roof
• All-new sub-flooring

Tags

• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• NEW CARPORT STRUCTURE
• NEW A/C SYSTEM
• NEW DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• ALL-NEW SUB-FLOORING
• NEW DRYWALL AND CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.1 acre with paved road access
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Part of Tidevue Estates Civic Organization with required association approval; HOA dues $50 monthly ($600 annually); Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces east
• Construction: Vinyl siding over frame construction; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a double-wide manufactured home footprint
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen appliances included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments; Double pane and insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $793 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,554/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.89%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1210 44th Avenue Dr E	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,008 (0%)	1mo	$130,000	$129	86
4508 14th St E	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	3mo	$110,000	$104	83
1208 45th Avenue Dr E	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,008 (0%)	5mo	$65,000	$64	82
1432 41st Ave E	0.28mi	2/1.5	1,000 (-1%)	3mo	$189,000	$189	81
4212 13th St E	0.30mi	2/2.0	960 (-5%)	2mo	$175,000	$182	76
1206 45th Avenue Dr E	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	2mo	$135,000	$128	76
4207 13th St E	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	3mo	$123,000	$116	74
1224 41st Avenue Dr E	0.35mi	2/2.0	963 (-4%)	4mo	$125,000	$130	73
4119 13th St E	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	7mo	$109,000	$103	71
1005 45th Ave E	0.39mi	2/2.0	960 (-5%)	4mo	$100,000	$104	70
4214 15th St E	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	1mo	$220,000	$191	65
1204 43rd Ave E	0.33mi	2/2.0	903 (-10%)	4mo	$73,500	$81	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $19,701
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $82,104
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,554 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,551

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $900	-5% $846	+0% $793	+5% $739	+10% $685
Rent	-10% $591	-5% $692	+0% $793	+5% $894	+10% $994
Rate	-1.0pp $888	-0.5pp $841	base $793	+0.5pp $743	+1.0pp $693

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	4d	15	0.26mi
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	4d	1	0.37mi
4612 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1210	$3,000	$2.48	24d	1	0.55mi
4711 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1350	$2,100	$1.56	24d	1	0.58mi
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	24d	1	0.70mi
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	4d	13	0.72mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	2d	67	0.97mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	4d	37	1.15mi
850 Tidewater Shores Loop #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1151	$2,650	$2.30	24d	1	1.32mi
4648 Lindever Ln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,289	$1.53	4d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternetpool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $189,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$376/yr (+$31/mo · 31.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,452
• − Management: −$2,452
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $6,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,640
• After-tax cash flow: $7,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+94.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $175,800 Public Records
• 2024-03-15 Sold (MLS) $175,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-05 Listed $178,889 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-16 Sold (MLS) $111,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-09 Price Changed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-22 Listed $117,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2007-12-28 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-24 Listed $97,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,200 · -35.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.