8255 E Kiva Ave #422 · Mesa, AZ 85209

$264,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · Condo public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1995 $254/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare 2 Bedroom 2 Bath condo which is fully furnished including all bedding, towels, kitchenware, and even tools in garage! The front bedroom can also be used as a sitting room is carpeted and has been walled off which allows its normal use as a living room but it also has a door and closet for guests when needed. The kitchen is clean and features stainless steel appliances, plenty of storage, and an opening into the living room. Two solar tubes (approved by HOA) offer extra daylight throughout the kitchen. The primary bedroom is large, with a low-step shower and south-facing window. The enclosed AZ room is fully insulated, heated and cooled. The south-facing back patio is perfect for warm, sunny AZ days! Sunland Village East is one of the premiere Active Adult communities with multiple fitness centers, pools, pickleball, tennis, and more. The condo association take care of landscaping, front yard maintenance and exterior maintenance of the units including painting and roofs, making this an easy lock and leave or full time residence! The front living room conversion into a usable bedroom is a rare feature in these condos and this particular unit is very clean, updated, and well-maintained and you will not be disappointed to see this one!

Key facts

• Enclosed az room
• Fully furnished
• $254 HOA

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ENCLOSED AZ ROOM
• SOUTH FACING BACK PATIO
• USABLE BEDROOM CONVERSION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Neely Traditional Academy (math 83% / reading 81%, grade A+, #10 of 1,109 statewide, top 1%, 805 students, 17% FRL); Desert Ridge Jr. High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #62 of 218 statewide, top 29%, 973 students, 26% FRL); Desert Ridge High (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #136 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 2,284 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 171 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $265k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,944 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.18%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-6,896
• Equity at exit: $96,552

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $15,041
• Equity at exit: $133,181

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,412/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$254
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,369

Max offer price $230,125

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-47	-5% $-122	+0% $-197	+5% $-272	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-364	-5% $-281	+0% $-197	+5% $-113	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-129	base $-197	+0.5pp $-265	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8438 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1363	$2,300	$1.69	26d	1	0.22mi
2311 S Farnsworth Dr #85 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1332	$3,300	$2.48	5d	1	0.33mi
2064 S Farnsworth Dr #25 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,595	$1.58	23d	1	0.33mi
7950 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1228	$1,995	$1.62	25d	1	0.36mi
2223 S Gordon Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,250	$1.76	26d	1	0.65mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1028 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,500	$1.46	45d	1	0.66mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1129 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	748	$3,200	$4.28	7d	1	0.78mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #300 Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	764	$2,000	$2.62	20d	1	0.78mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	26d	1	0.87mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	21d	1	0.87mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,526	$2.70	0d	1	0.92mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 94B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$3,702	$4.01	26d	1	1.09mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 3B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	976	$1,606	$1.65	16d	1	1.09mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 101B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$1,555	$1.68	45d	1	1.09mi
8462 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1473	$1,995	$1.35	45d	1	1.20mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,390	$1.32	26d	1	1.25mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	971	$1,390	$1.43	5d	11	1.25mi
2821 S Skyline #157 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,200	$1.53	6d	1	1.34mi
2821 S Skyline #127 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,350	$1.63	45d	1	1.36mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1145	$1,575	$1.37	26d	1	1.37mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	16d	3	1.37mi
9335 E Baseline Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$1,745	$1.50	0d	12	1.40mi
8843 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,050	$1.51	6d	1	1.43mi
9233 E Neville Ave #1088 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,850	$1.75	7d	1	1.43mi
8852 E Plana Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,995	$1.47	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $254 · $3,048/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingexterior maint.poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $264,900 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $264,900 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $264,900 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $264,900 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $264,900 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-03-04
   price $264,900 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   Rare 2 Bedroom 2 Bath condo which is fully furnished including all bedding, towels, kitchenware, and even tools in garage! The front bedroom can also be used as a sitting room is carpeted and has been walled off which allows its normal use as a living room but it also has a door and closet for guests when needed. The kitchen is clean and features stainless steel appliances, plenty of storage, and an opening into the living room. Two solar tubes (approved by HOA) offer extra daylight throughout the kitchen. The primary bedroom is large, with a low-step shower and south-facing window. The enclosed AZ room is fully insulated, heated and cooled. The south-facing back patio is perfect for warm, sunny AZ days! Sunland Village East is one of the premiere Active Adult communities with multiple fitness centers, pools, pickleball, tennis, and more. The condo association take care of landscaping, front yard maintenance and exterior maintenance of the units including painting and roofs, making this an easy lock and leave or full time residence! The front living room conversion into a usable bedroom is a rare feature in these condos and this particular unit is very clean, updated, and well-maintained and you will not be disappointed to see this one!

7. 2026-02-03
   price $279,700 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   Rare 2 Bedroom 2 Bath condo which is fully furnished including all bedding, towels, kitchenware, and even tools in garage! The front bedroom can also be used as a sitting room is carpeted and has been walled off which allows its normal use as a living room but it also has a door and closet for guests when needed. The kitchen is clean and features stainless steel appliances, plenty of storage, and an opening into the living room. Two solar tubes (approved by HOA) offer extra daylight throughout the kitchen. The primary bedroom is large, with a low-step shower and south-facing window. The enclosed AZ room is fully insulated, heated and cooled. The south-facing back patio is perfect for warm, sunny AZ days! Sunland Village East is one of the premiere Active Adult communities with multiple fitness centers, pools, pickleball, tennis, and more. The condo association take care of landscaping, front yard maintenance and exterior maintenance of the units including painting and roofs, making this an easy lock and leave or full time residence! The front living room conversion into a usable bedroom is a rare feature in these condos and this particular unit is very clean, updated, and well-maintained and you will not be disappointed to see this one!

8. 2026-01-21
   price $284,900 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   Rare 2 Bedroom 2 Bath condo which is fully furnished including all bedding, towels, kitchenware, and even tools in garage! The front bedroom can also be used as a sitting room is carpeted and has been walled off which allows its normal use as a living room but it also has a door and closet for guests when needed. The kitchen is clean and features stainless steel appliances, plenty of storage, and an opening into the living room. Two solar tubes (approved by HOA) offer extra daylight throughout the kitchen. The primary bedroom is large, with a low-step shower and south-facing window. The enclosed AZ room is fully insulated, heated and cooled. The south-facing back patio is perfect for warm, sunny AZ days! Sunland Village East is one of the premiere Active Adult communities with multiple fitness centers, pools, pickleball, tennis, and more. The condo association take care of landscaping, front yard maintenance and exterior maintenance of the units including painting and roofs, making this an easy lock and leave or full time residence! The front living room conversion into a usable bedroom is a rare feature in these condos and this particular unit is very clean, updated, and well-maintained and you will not be disappointed to see this one!

9. 2025-11-19
   listed $298,500 Active 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   Rare 2 Bedroom 2 Bath condo which is fully furnished including all bedding, towels, kitchenware, and even tools in garage! The front bedroom can also be used as a sitting room is carpeted and has been walled off which allows its normal use as a living room but it also has a door and closet for guests when needed. The kitchen is clean and features stainless steel appliances, plenty of storage, and an opening into the living room. Two solar tubes (approved by HOA) offer extra daylight throughout the kitchen. The primary bedroom is large, with a low-step shower and south-facing window. The enclosed AZ room is fully insulated, heated and cooled. The south-facing back patio is perfect for warm, sunny AZ days! Sunland Village East is one of the premiere Active Adult communities with multiple fitness centers, pools, pickleball, tennis, and more. The condo association take care of landscaping, front yard maintenance and exterior maintenance of the units including painting and roofs, making this an easy lock and leave or full time residence! The front living room conversion into a usable bedroom is a rare feature in these condos and this particular unit is very clean, updated, and well-maintained and you will not be disappointed to see this one!

10. 2025-08-01
    historical
11. 2025-06-25
    price $298,900
12. 2025-05-06
    listed $299,000 Active
13. 2004-01-28
    soldstatus $94,000
14. 2004-01-28
    soldstatus $94,000
15. 2004-01-23
    historical
16. 2003-07-15
    listed $97,900
17. 2002-02-21
    historical
18. 2001-09-07
    listed $92,000
19. 2001-07-20
    historical
20. 2000-09-21
    listed $92,000
21. 1999-03-19
    soldstatus $93,000
22. 1997-08-01
    soldstatus $91,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,412 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,748 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$336/yr (+$28/mo · 23.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$1,412
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − HOA: −$3,048
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$6,965
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,672
• After-tax cash flow: $-691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+189.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $264,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $279,700 ARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $284,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $298,500 ARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $298,900 ARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2004-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-28 Sold (MLS) $94,000 ARMLS
• 2004-01-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-07-15 Listed $97,900 ARMLS
• 2002-02-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2001-09-07 Listed $92,000 ARMLS
• 2001-07-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2000-09-21 Listed $92,000 ARMLS
• 1999-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 1997-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $91,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,412 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.