Plan 2824 Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$256,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,783 sqft · SingleFamily · 209 Days on market

↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Downstairs primary bedroom * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Separate dining room
• Game room

Tags

• DOWNSTAIRS PRIMARY SUITE
• KITCHEN BREAKFAST BAR
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• GAME ROOM
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $256,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $392,506.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $257k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,066 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.36%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,506
• List price: $256,995
• Delta: -34.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2211 Beasley West End	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,729 (-2%)	8mo	$400,000	$147	82
7215 Saddle Crest Way	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,382 (-14%)	1mo	$281,503	$118	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-302
• Equity at exit: $202,532

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $71,302
• Equity at exit: $334,102

Cash invested: $109,902 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,058
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$491 /mo · $5,888/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-1,132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,434

Max offer price $228,704

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,126
• Closing costs: $11,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,995 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $256,995 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $256,995 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $256,995 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $256,995 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $256,995 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $256,995 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $256,995 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $256,995 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $256,995 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $256,995 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $256,995 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $256,995 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    price $256,995 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Downstairs primary bedroom * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

15. 2026-04-01
    price $255,995 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Downstairs primary bedroom * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

16. 2026-02-06
    price $265,995 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Downstairs primary bedroom * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

17. 2025-12-12
    price $275,995 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Downstairs primary bedroom * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

18. 2025-11-22
    status Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Downstairs primary bedroom * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

19. 2025-11-22
    price $285,995 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Downstairs primary bedroom * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

20. 2025-11-05
    historical 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Downstairs primary bedroom * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

21. 2025-11-04
    listed $295,995 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Downstairs primary bedroom * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Great shopping nearby * Near entertainment and leisure * Pond * Pickleball court * Community park

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,986
• − Property taxes: −$5,888
• − Insurance: −$1,963
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − Depreciation: −$11,418
• Taxable loss: −$21,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,061
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $256,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $255,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $265,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $275,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $285,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-05 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Listed $295,995 Zillow