11646 Birch Ave · Hawthorne, CA 90250

$2,400,000

18 bd · 13.5 ba · 10,236 sqft · MultiFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 1966 Fair condition 9,564 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 9 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedrm. owner's unit & 8 townhouse style 2 bdrms. Quality construction in good rental area. Tenants not aware of sale - offer subject to inspection. N

Key facts

• Gated community
• Secure entry
• Storage unit

Tags

• 9 UNIT RESIDENTIAL COMPLEX
• INCOME GENERATING FEATURES
• PRIVATE YARDS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• SECURE ENTRY
• STORAGE UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Scheduled/Actual: Actual
• Financial info: Gross income reported at 216,816; Gross operating income reported at $213,612; Net operating income reported at $130,981; Total annual expenses reported at $82,631; Cap rate 5.46%; Gross rent multiplier 11.07; Vacancy allowance 3%; Rent examples: typical 2-bed unit rent $1,906 (projected $18,400; actual $15,248 for 8 units), 3-bed unit rent $2,818 (projected $2,995; actual $2,818 for 1 unit)
• HOA & community: Nine total units in the complex

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: No water, sewer, or power details provided
• Home design: Residential income property; Multi-level; One building; Zoned HAR3YY
• Construction: No construction materials, roof, foundation, or year built provided
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.2196 acres (75 x 128); No other structures

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Eight 2-bedroom units; One 3-bedroom unit
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: Units with 1.5 baths
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Multi-level building
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry or utility details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8×2bd/1.5ba + 1×3bd/1.5ba units multifamily listed at $2.40M. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $57/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.16M (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.16M (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.0% in Hawthorne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#597 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Hawthorne (suburban): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #673 of 1,400 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: York (471 students, 70% FRL); Prairie Vista Middle (759 students, 63% FRL); Lawndale High (math 16% / reading 42%, grade F, #770 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 1,921 students, 72% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hawthorne average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $21,647/mo this rent would consume 332% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 6620% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $72k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.33M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $585k; list at $2.40M implies a 310% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,164,700 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
5. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-379,672
• Equity at exit: $357,848

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-382,983
• Equity at exit: $207,508

Cash invested: $672,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 90250

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 84.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,647 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,586
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,000 /mo · $36,000/yr
• Insurance: −$1,000
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,546
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $20,995

Max offer price $2,400,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,174	-5% $1,345	+0% $515	+5% $-314	+10% $-1,143
Rent	-10% $-1,195	-5% $-340	+0% $515	+5% $1,370	+10% $2,225
Rate	-1.0pp $1,724	-0.5pp $1,126	base $515	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-739

9-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 8× units	2	1.5	$18,992
1× unit	3	1.5	$2,652
Total (9 units)			$21,647

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $600,000
• Closing costs: $72,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,400,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,400,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,400,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,400,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,400,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,400,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,400,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,400,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,400,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,400,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,400,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,400,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,400,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,400,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,400,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $2,400,000 Active
17. 2025-04-07
    listed Active
18. 2000-08-10
    soldstatus $585,000 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    4 bedrm. owner's unit & 8 townhouse style 2 bdrms. Quality construction in good rental area. Tenants not aware of sale - offer subject to inspection. N

19. 2000-03-23
    listed $595,000 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    4 bedrm. owner's unit & 8 townhouse style 2 bdrms. Quality construction in good rental area. Tenants not aware of sale - offer subject to inspection. N

20. 1995-11-26
    soldstatus $458,000
21. 1995-07-30
    listed $499,000
22. 1995-04-26
    historical
23. 1994-10-26
    listed $650,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $259,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$134,437
• − Property taxes: −$36,000
• − Insurance: −$12,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,781
• − Management: −$20,781
• − Depreciation: −$69,818
• Taxable loss: −$34,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,173
• After-tax cash flow: $14,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This multi-family property requires moderate repairs and updates to its kitchens, bathrooms, exterior, and flooring to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen countertops — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Signs of wear
• Moderate Exterior paint — Discoloration and wear
• Moderate Flooring — Worn appearance
• Moderate Interior paint — Faded appearance
• Minor Windows — Need new hardware

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating fixtures in kitchens and bathrooms — Fresh paint and updated fixtures can improve both resale and rental value
• Both Floor refinishing — Refinished floors can improve both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen countertops · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Signs of wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior paint · Discoloration and wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Flooring · Worn appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior paint · Faded appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Windows · Need new hardware	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$10,500–54,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating fixtures in kitchens and bathrooms — Fresh paint and updated fixtures can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Floor refinishing — Refinished floors can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawthorne
• NCES district ID: 0616680
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,657
• Composite: 38.17/100
• National rank: #8589
• State rank: #673 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hawthorne

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #19278

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hawthorne, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 93,826
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 93,826
• Household income: $78,331
• Rent vs Own: 68.1% rent · 31.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 6620.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 23% Two or more races 20% White 11% Asian 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -948.55%
• Current HPI: 409.3796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+269.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $2,400,000 TheMLS
• 2025-04-07 Listed — TheMLS
• 2000-08-10 Sold (MLS) $585,000 CRMLS
• 2000-03-23 Listed $595,000 CRMLS
• 1995-11-26 Sold (MLS) $458,000 CRMLS
• 1995-07-30 Listed $499,000 CRMLS
• 1995-04-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1994-10-26 Listed $650,000 CRMLS