7306 Statesman Blvd · Lake Caroline, VA 22546

$256,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,080 sqft · Townhouse public records

Built 2015 1,742 sqft lot Est $356k · 28% under $97/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $97 HOA
• Built 2015

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $256k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Caroline — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#476 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.65%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $355,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18329 Democracy Ave	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,036 (-2%)	0mo	$348,000	$171	89
7262 Statesman Blvd	0.08mi	4/3.5	2,100 (+1%)	7mo	$330,000	$157	89
18413 Congressional Cir	0.09mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,090 (+0%)	7mo	$330,000	$158	83
7274 Statesman Blvd	0.06mi	4/3.5	2,288 (+10%)	0mo	$330,000	$144	80
18435 Congressional Cir	0.06mi	4/3.0	1,790 (-14%)	1mo	$345,000	$193	72
18315 Congressional Cir	0.09mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,882 (-10%)	4mo	$305,000	$162	70
7200 Senate Way	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,108 (+1%)	13mo	$335,900	$159	69
18323 Congressional Cir	0.09mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,838 (-12%)	6mo	$325,000	$177	64
18279 Democracy Ave	0.03mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,820 (-12%)	9mo	$325,000	$179	63
18368 Centennial Cir	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,228 (+7%)	2mo	$395,000	$177	63
18256 Capital Ct	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,280 (+10%)	3mo	$345,000	$151	62
7222 Senate Way	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (-14%)	2mo	$335,000	$186	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-8,590
• Equity at exit: $38,170

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $34,833
• Equity at exit: $22,134

Cash invested: $71,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22546

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,776 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,560/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,122

Max offer price $256,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,000
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7236 Potomac Ter Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,500	$1.49	20d	1	0.12mi
7120 Iron Gall Ln Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,495	$1.47	44d	1	0.31mi
18347 Centennial Cir Ruther Glen, VA	4.0	3.5	2250	$1,090	$0.48	44d	1	0.47mi
18353 Centennial Cir Ruther Glen, VA	4.0	3.5	2448	$2,650	$1.08	44d	1	0.48mi
7092 Durrette Rd Ruther Glen, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1500	$2,260	$1.51	1d	1	0.75mi
7124 Azalea Dr Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,900	$1.32	44d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-02
   listed $256,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,560 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,099 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$539/yr (+$45/mo · 34.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,340
• − Property taxes: −$1,560
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,665
• − Management: −$2,665
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable income: $2,188
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$525
• After-tax cash flow: $5,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Caroline

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #20626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caroline County · 18,392 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 18,392
• Household income: $89,247
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 192.0

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.95%
• Current HPI: 362.5582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-48.8% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $256,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $335,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $335,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $329,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-10-20 Coming Soon — CVRMLS
• 2025-10-19 Listed $329,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-14 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-14 Sold (MLS) $297,760 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-19 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-17 Listed $280,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-24 Price Changed $249,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-24 Sold (MLS) $249,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-29 Price Changed $260,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-22 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-20 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-06-22 Sold (MLS) $208,891 MRIS
• 2017-06-22 Sold (MLS) $208,891 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-05-04 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-03-15 Price Changed $209,891 MRIS
• 2015-06-23 Price Changed $206,891 MRIS
• 2015-02-23 Listed $204,100 MRIS
• 2011-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,560 · -11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.