7482 Surbrook Rd · Seneca Knolls, NY 13027

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1950 6,868 sqft lot $154/sqft · 22% below area Est $255k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the epitome of comfortable living in this charming ranch-style home. Step inside to find three inviting bedrooms and a fully updated bathroom boasting contemporary finishes. The heart of the home is the stylishly renovated kitchen, featuring new cabinets, countertops, and appliances that make cooking a delight. New flooring throughout adds a touch of modern elegance, while the abundance of natural light streaming in through the newly installed windows creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. Convenience meets practicality with a spacious storage room and convenient first-floor laundry facilities. Outside, a detached one-car garage provides secure parking and additional storage space. Nestled in a desirable location, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality for effortless living.

Key facts

• 6,868 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; Driveway parking
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Septic tank sewer; Circuit breaker electrical
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Blown-in insulation; Block foundation; Architectural shingle roof; PEX plumbing; Built previously (existing structure)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (one is primary on the main level)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Great room; Galley kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($461/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.3% in Seneca Knolls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#918 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Baldwinsville Central School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $188,092 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,721
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -21.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7471 Gordon Rd	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,161 (-10%)	14mo	$248,000	$214	67
3342 Hayes Rd	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,284 (-1%)	12mo	$266,000	$207	64
105 Niblick Cir	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-7%)	1mo	$285,100	$238	48
7432 State Fair Blvd	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,152 (-11%)	20mo	$220,000	$191	41
104 Niblick Cir	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-7%)	15mo	$216,000	$180	37
141 Henderson Blvd	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,105 (-15%)	20mo	$207,000	$187	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,878
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,588
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13027

• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,791/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,832

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $95	+0% $38	+5% $-18	+10% $-75
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-36	+0% $38	+5% $113	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $89	base $38	+0.5pp $-13	+1.0pp $-66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Cedarwood Blvd Baldwinsville, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	725	$1,695	$2.34	14d	1	0.73mi
489 Idlewood Blvd #489 Baldwinsville, NY	2.0	1.0	903	$1,550	$1.72	14d	1	1.32mi
555 Village Blvd N Baldwinsville, NY	3.0	1.5	1043	$1,900	$1.82	14d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $199,900 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   price $199,900 1335-char remark
7. 2026-05-06
   listed $209,900 Active 1335-char remark
8. 2024-08-29
   historical $1,950
9. 2024-08-22
   price $1,950
10. 2024-08-19
    price $2,100
11. 2024-08-16
    price $2,200
12. 2024-08-15
    price $2,300
13. 2024-08-08
    soldstatus $176,000
14. 2024-08-07
    soldstatus $176,000 Closed 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Discover the epitome of comfortable living in this charming ranch-style home. Step inside to find three inviting bedrooms and a fully updated bathroom boasting contemporary finishes. The heart of the home is the stylishly renovated kitchen, featuring new cabinets, countertops, and appliances that make cooking a delight. New flooring throughout adds a touch of modern elegance, while the abundance of natural light streaming in through the newly installed windows creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. Convenience meets practicality with a spacious storage room and convenient first-floor laundry facilities. Outside, a detached one-car garage provides secure parking and additional storage space. Nestled in a desirable location, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality for effortless living.

15. 2024-08-03
    listed $2,400
16. 2024-06-12
    status Pending 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Discover the epitome of comfortable living in this charming ranch-style home. Step inside to find three inviting bedrooms and a fully updated bathroom boasting contemporary finishes. The heart of the home is the stylishly renovated kitchen, featuring new cabinets, countertops, and appliances that make cooking a delight. New flooring throughout adds a touch of modern elegance, while the abundance of natural light streaming in through the newly installed windows creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. Convenience meets practicality with a spacious storage room and convenient first-floor laundry facilities. Outside, a detached one-car garage provides secure parking and additional storage space. Nestled in a desirable location, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality for effortless living.

17. 2024-06-04
    historical Active Under Contract 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Discover the epitome of comfortable living in this charming ranch-style home. Step inside to find three inviting bedrooms and a fully updated bathroom boasting contemporary finishes. The heart of the home is the stylishly renovated kitchen, featuring new cabinets, countertops, and appliances that make cooking a delight. New flooring throughout adds a touch of modern elegance, while the abundance of natural light streaming in through the newly installed windows creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. Convenience meets practicality with a spacious storage room and convenient first-floor laundry facilities. Outside, a detached one-car garage provides secure parking and additional storage space. Nestled in a desirable location, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality for effortless living.

18. 2024-05-28
    price $189,000 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Discover the epitome of comfortable living in this charming ranch-style home. Step inside to find three inviting bedrooms and a fully updated bathroom boasting contemporary finishes. The heart of the home is the stylishly renovated kitchen, featuring new cabinets, countertops, and appliances that make cooking a delight. New flooring throughout adds a touch of modern elegance, while the abundance of natural light streaming in through the newly installed windows creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. Convenience meets practicality with a spacious storage room and convenient first-floor laundry facilities. Outside, a detached one-car garage provides secure parking and additional storage space. Nestled in a desirable location, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality for effortless living.

19. 2024-05-09
    listed $199,000 Active 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Discover the epitome of comfortable living in this charming ranch-style home. Step inside to find three inviting bedrooms and a fully updated bathroom boasting contemporary finishes. The heart of the home is the stylishly renovated kitchen, featuring new cabinets, countertops, and appliances that make cooking a delight. New flooring throughout adds a touch of modern elegance, while the abundance of natural light streaming in through the newly installed windows creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. Convenience meets practicality with a spacious storage room and convenient first-floor laundry facilities. Outside, a detached one-car garage provides secure parking and additional storage space. Nestled in a desirable location, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality for effortless living.

20. 2003-12-23
    soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,791 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,791 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,791
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,806
• − Management: −$1,806
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,844
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$683
• After-tax cash flow: $1,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwinsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,182
• Composite: 44.22/100
• National rank: #2848
• State rank: #355 of 590 in NY

Livability — Seneca Knolls

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #918
• US rank: #17961

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 35,088
• Household income: $91,797
• Rent vs Own: 30.9% rent · 69.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 321.8247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+177.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $199,900 CNYIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $209,900 CNYIS
• 2024-08-29 Rental Removed $1,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $1,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $2,100 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $2,200 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-08-15 Price Changed $2,300 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $176,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-07 Sold (MLS) $176,000 CNYIS
• 2024-08-03 Listed for Rent $2,400 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-06-12 Pending — CNYIS
• 2024-06-04 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2024-05-28 Price Changed $189,000 CNYIS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $199,000 CNYIS
• 2003-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,791 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.