403 Flintlock Rd · Caddo Mills, TX
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- —
- Est. flood insurance / yr
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Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
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- Hot days in 30 yrs
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Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
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- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +13.7/30.0
- ARV discount +13.0/15.0
- Schools +6.2/10.0
- Condition / age +5.0/5.0
- DSCR +4.1/10.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- 1% rule +2.9/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$279,490
403 Flintlock Rd · Caddo Mills, TX 75135
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · SingleFamily
public records
· 168 Days on market
Built 2026
7,405 sqft lot
$170/sqft
· 8% below area
Est $319k · 12% under
$40/mo HOA · 2% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This Traditions Series home is tailored for the modern professional or the growing family. The impressive exterior, with its custom elevation and kiln-fired brick, makes a sophisticated statement. (Some elevations also include stone and siding. ) Enter through the raised panel fiberglass insulated door to a streamlined foyer that leads to open-concept living. The kitchen, with its sleek 36" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, is perfect for quick meals or entertaining colleagues and family. The primary suite offers a luxurious escape, featuring a dual sink vanity bathroom, walk-in shower, and spacious closet. Laminate wood plank flooring provides a contemporary feel, while the smart home system caters to a convenient lifestyle. Enjoy the modern front-facing 2-car garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!
Key facts
- Led lighting
- Community pool
- Island kitchen
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($245/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (20.9% below list).
- Recommended offer: $221k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Caddo Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
- Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Frances And Jeannette Lee El (math 63% / reading 55%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 571 students, 29% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: 369 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Recommended offer
$220,966
(20.9% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.79% ✗
- Cap rate
- 6.38%
- Cash-on-cash
- 0.31%
- DSCR
- 1.01
- GRM
- 10.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $318,524
- List price
- $279,490
- Delta
- -12.25%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 404 Flintlock Rd | 0.03mi | 3/2.0 | 1,735 (+5%) | 4mo | $287,490 | $166 | 86 |
| 412 Tia Ave | 0.10mi | 3/2.0 | 1,735 (+5%) | 9mo | $299,430 | $173 | 79 |
| 211 Bobcat Ln | 0.19mi | 3/2.0 | 1,735 (+5%) | 4mo | $294,030 | $169 | 78 |
| 413 Range Rd | 0.07mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,829 (+11%) | 5mo | $331,490 | $181 | 69 |
| 215 Bobcat Ln | 0.17mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,829 (+11%) | 5mo | $298,990 | $163 | 65 |
| 300 Tia Ave | 0.12mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,829 (+11%) | 9mo | $283,000 | $155 | 63 |
| 211 Buckboard Ln | 0.21mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,829 (+11%) | 5mo | $299,650 | $164 | 63 |
| 144 Whitetail Way | 0.45mi | 3/2.0 | 1,734 (+5%) | 9mo | $250,000 | $144 | 63 |
| 412 Bailey Way | 0.20mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,816 (+10%) | 9mo | $300,000 | $165 | 61 |
| 177 Longhorn Pass | 0.48mi | 3/2.0 | 1,735 (+5%) | 9mo | $265,000 | $153 | 61 |
| 108 Condor Pass | 0.34mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,830 (+11%) | 4mo | $267,999 | $146 | 58 |
| 3330 Fm 36 S | 0.72mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,554 (-6%) | 5mo | $339,900 | $219 | 47 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -15.8%
- Equity multiple
- 0.44×
- Total profit
- $-44,085
- Equity at exit
- $41,673
10-year hold
- IRR
- -7.5%
- Equity multiple
- 0.53×
- Total profit
- $-37,097
- Equity at exit
- $24,165
Cash invested: $78,257 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 31 active · 9 under contract
- Months of supply
- 12.4 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $285,000 ($163/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 97 d
- This list price
- 35% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +18.8% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 75135
- Home prices YoY
- -13.5%
- Active inventory
- 369
- Price-to-rent
- 10.5×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,210 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,466
- Tax from tax record
- −$103 /mo · $1,237/yr
- Insurance
- −$116
- HOA
- −$40
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$464
- Net cashflow
- $20
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$2,184
Max offer price
$279,490
Occupancy floor
94%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $179 | -5% $99 | +0% $20 | +5% $-59 | +10% $-138 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-154 | -5% $-67 | +0% $20 | +5% $108 | +10% $195 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $161 | -0.5pp $91 | base $20 | +0.5pp $-52 | +1.0pp $-126 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $69,872
- Closing costs
- $8,385
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 11 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 509 Range Rd Caddo Mills, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2060 | $2,500 | $1.21 | 50d | 1 | 0.14mi |
| 116 Kiskadee Trl Caddo Mills, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2018 | $1,995 | $0.99 | 32d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 210 Calico Ln Caddo Mills, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2012 | $2,350 | $1.17 | 10d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 132 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1780 | $2,400 | $1.35 | 61d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 152 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1826 | $1,900 | $1.04 | 4d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 221 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2014 | $2,000 | $0.99 | 32d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 221 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2010 | $1,950 | $0.97 | 17d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 187 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2003 | $2,195 | $1.10 | 54d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 176 Mockingbird Way Caddo Mills, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2035 | $1,995 | $0.98 | 1d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 218 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1735 | $2,195 | $1.27 | 93d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 125 Smarty Jones St Caddo Mills, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1690 | $2,100 | $1.24 | 21d | 1 | 1.36mi |
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $279,490 Active 168 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $279,490 Active 166 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $279,490 Active 165 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $279,490 Active 164 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $279,490 Active 163 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $279,490 Active 160 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $279,490 Active 159 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $279,490 Active 158 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $279,490 Active 157 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $279,490 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $279,490 Active 153 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $279,490 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $279,490 Active 151 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $279,490 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $279,490 Active 149 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $279,490 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $279,490 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $279,490 Active 145 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $279,490 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $279,490 Active 143 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $279,490 Active 142 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $279,490 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $279,490 Active 140 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $279,490 Active 139 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $279,490 Active 138 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $279,490 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $279,490 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $279,490 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $279,490 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $279,490 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $279,490 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $279,490 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-06-30price $279,490 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $276,490 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $276,490 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $276,490 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $276,490 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $276,490 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $276,490 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $276,490 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $276,490 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $276,490 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $276,490 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $276,490 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $276,490 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $276,490 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $276,490 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $276,490 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $276,490 Active 107 DOM
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2026-06-07days on market $276,490 Active 106 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,237 · $103/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $5,115 · $426/mo
- Expected delta
- +$3,877/yr (+$323/mo · 313.3%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $26,516
- − Mortgage interest
- −$15,656
- − Property taxes
- −$1,237
- − Insurance
- −$1,397
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,121
- − Management
- −$2,121
- − HOA
- −$480
- − Depreciation
- −$8,131
- Taxable loss
- −$4,628
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,111
- After-tax cash flow
- $1,355/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
100/100
None rehab
This home is in excellent condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It's move-in ready and would benefit from some curb appeal improvements and modern updates to enhance its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Paint exterior brick and stone — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
- Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
- Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑
C
Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Frances And Jeannette Lee El
B-
TX #455/4,322
Nat'l #8,048/41,679
Middle
Caddo Mills Middle
C+
TX #301/1,662
Nat'l #3,033/14,009
High
Caddo Mills H S
B+
TX #82/1,632
Nat'l #1,629/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Caddo Mills ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4812390
- Math proficiency
- 59% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 59% ▬ 0.00%
- Median HH income
- $65,383
- Composite
- 51.73/100
- National rank
- #1684
- State rank
- #60 of 826 in TX
B
Composite livability gradescore 73/100
Livability — Caddo Mills
- Score
- 73/100
- State rank
- #216
- US rank
- #5332
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime A+
Employment C
Housing A+
Health & safety B-
User ratings A-
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Hunt · 97,090 people
- City population
- 10,265
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 10,265
- Household income
- $95,428
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 20% of renters
Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 97,090 people
- By 2030
- 100,452 · +3.5%
- By 2040
- 106,544 · +9.7%
- By 2050
- 111,218 · +14.6%
- By 2075
- 121,695 · +25.3%
- By 2100
- 123,683 · +27.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (67%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 7% · Canada, South Korea
- Languages at home
- 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Hunt
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -43.07%
- Current HPI
- 275.2189
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
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Price history
+1.5% since first listed10 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-12 Price Changed $276,490 Zillow
- 2026-05-11 Price Changed $276,490 NTREIS
- 2026-04-06 Price Changed $275,490 NTREIS
- 2026-04-04 Price Changed $275,490 Zillow
- 2026-03-12 Price Changed $273,490 Zillow
- 2026-03-11 Price Changed $273,490 NTREIS
- 2026-02-25 Price Changed $274,490 NTREIS
- 2026-02-21 Listed $282,490 NTREIS
- 2026-02-19 Price Changed $274,490 Zillow
- 2026-01-10 Listed $272,490 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…