403 Flintlock Rd · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$276,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · Other public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,405 sqft lot $168/sqft · 9% below area Est $318k · 13% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Traditions Series home is tailored for the modern professional or the growing family. The impressive exterior, with its custom elevation and kiln-fired brick, makes a sophisticated statement. (Some elevations also include stone and siding. ) Enter through the raised panel fiberglass insulated door to a streamlined foyer that leads to open-concept living. The kitchen, with its sleek 36" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, is perfect for quick meals or entertaining colleagues and family. The primary suite offers a luxurious escape, featuring a dual sink vanity bathroom, walk-in shower, and spacious closet. Laminate wood plank flooring provides a contemporary feel, while the smart home system caters to a convenient lifestyle. Enjoy the modern front-facing 2-car garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Community pool
• Island kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LED LIGHTING
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $276k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.9% in Caddo Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $239,267 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.82%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,375
• List price: $276,490
• Delta: -13.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-33,303
• Equity at exit: $41,226

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-14,437
• Equity at exit: $23,906

Cash invested: $77,417 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,393 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,450
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,237/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,162

Max offer price $276,490

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,122
• Closing costs: $8,295
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Range Rd Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2060	$2,500	$1.21	1d	1	0.14mi
210 Calico Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2012	$2,400	$1.19	24d	1	0.23mi
132 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,400	$1.35	12d	1	0.41mi
187 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,195	$1.10	5d	1	0.52mi
218 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,195	$1.27	44d	1	0.55mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,490 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $276,490 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,490 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,490 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,490 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,490 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $276,490 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,490 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $276,490 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $276,490 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,490 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,490 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $276,490 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $276,490 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $276,490 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    This Traditions Series home is tailored for the modern professional or the growing family. The impressive exterior, with its custom elevation and kiln-fired brick, makes a sophisticated statement. (Some elevations also include stone and siding. ) Enter through the raised panel fiberglass insulated door to a streamlined foyer that leads to open-concept living. The kitchen, with its sleek 36" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, is perfect for quick meals or entertaining colleagues and family. The primary suite offers a luxurious escape, featuring a dual sink vanity bathroom, walk-in shower, and spacious closet. Laminate wood plank flooring provides a contemporary feel, while the smart home system caters to a convenient lifestyle. Enjoy the modern front-facing 2-car garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

16. 2026-05-11
    price $276,490 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    New! Great open concept floor plan! Three bedrooms, two full baths, with covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Come see this stunning new community in Caddo Mills nestled between Hwy 66 and I-30. Enjoy small town country living with access to downtown Dallas only 42 miles away. With a playground, community pool, and 3 large lakes under an hour away, there’s no shortage of outdoor fun available with this neighborhood. This community has something for everyone! Schedule a tour today!

17. 2026-04-06
    price $275,490 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    New! Great open concept floor plan! Three bedrooms, two full baths, with covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Come see this stunning new community in Caddo Mills nestled between Hwy 66 and I-30. Enjoy small town country living with access to downtown Dallas only 42 miles away. With a playground, community pool, and 3 large lakes under an hour away, there’s no shortage of outdoor fun available with this neighborhood. This community has something for everyone! Schedule a tour today!

18. 2026-04-04
    price $275,490 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    This Traditions Series home is tailored for the modern professional or the growing family. The impressive exterior, with its custom elevation and kiln-fired brick, makes a sophisticated statement. (Some elevations also include stone and siding. ) Enter through the raised panel fiberglass insulated door to a streamlined foyer that leads to open-concept living. The kitchen, with its sleek 36" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, is perfect for quick meals or entertaining colleagues and family. The primary suite offers a luxurious escape, featuring a dual sink vanity bathroom, walk-in shower, and spacious closet. Laminate wood plank flooring provides a contemporary feel, while the smart home system caters to a convenient lifestyle. Enjoy the modern front-facing 2-car garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

19. 2026-03-12
    price $273,490 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    This Traditions Series home is tailored for the modern professional or the growing family. The impressive exterior, with its custom elevation and kiln-fired brick, makes a sophisticated statement. (Some elevations also include stone and siding. ) Enter through the raised panel fiberglass insulated door to a streamlined foyer that leads to open-concept living. The kitchen, with its sleek 36" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, is perfect for quick meals or entertaining colleagues and family. The primary suite offers a luxurious escape, featuring a dual sink vanity bathroom, walk-in shower, and spacious closet. Laminate wood plank flooring provides a contemporary feel, while the smart home system caters to a convenient lifestyle. Enjoy the modern front-facing 2-car garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

20. 2026-03-11
    price $273,490 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    New! Great open concept floor plan! Three bedrooms, two full baths, with covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Come see this stunning new community in Caddo Mills nestled between Hwy 66 and I-30. Enjoy small town country living with access to downtown Dallas only 42 miles away. With a playground, community pool, and 3 large lakes under an hour away, there’s no shortage of outdoor fun available with this neighborhood. This community has something for everyone! Schedule a tour today!

21. 2026-02-25
    price $274,490 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    New! Great open concept floor plan! Three bedrooms, two full baths, with covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Come see this stunning new community in Caddo Mills nestled between Hwy 66 and I-30. Enjoy small town country living with access to downtown Dallas only 42 miles away. With a playground, community pool, and 3 large lakes under an hour away, there’s no shortage of outdoor fun available with this neighborhood. This community has something for everyone! Schedule a tour today!

22. 2026-02-21
    listed $282,490 Active 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    New! Great open concept floor plan! Three bedrooms, two full baths, with covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Come see this stunning new community in Caddo Mills nestled between Hwy 66 and I-30. Enjoy small town country living with access to downtown Dallas only 42 miles away. With a playground, community pool, and 3 large lakes under an hour away, there’s no shortage of outdoor fun available with this neighborhood. This community has something for everyone! Schedule a tour today!

23. 2026-02-19
    price $274,490 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    This Traditions Series home is tailored for the modern professional or the growing family. The impressive exterior, with its custom elevation and kiln-fired brick, makes a sophisticated statement. (Some elevations also include stone and siding. ) Enter through the raised panel fiberglass insulated door to a streamlined foyer that leads to open-concept living. The kitchen, with its sleek 36" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, is perfect for quick meals or entertaining colleagues and family. The primary suite offers a luxurious escape, featuring a dual sink vanity bathroom, walk-in shower, and spacious closet. Laminate wood plank flooring provides a contemporary feel, while the smart home system caters to a convenient lifestyle. Enjoy the modern front-facing 2-car garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

24. 2026-01-10
    listed $272,490 Active 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    This Traditions Series home is tailored for the modern professional or the growing family. The impressive exterior, with its custom elevation and kiln-fired brick, makes a sophisticated statement. (Some elevations also include stone and siding. ) Enter through the raised panel fiberglass insulated door to a streamlined foyer that leads to open-concept living. The kitchen, with its sleek 36" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, is perfect for quick meals or entertaining colleagues and family. The primary suite offers a luxurious escape, featuring a dual sink vanity bathroom, walk-in shower, and spacious closet. Laminate wood plank flooring provides a contemporary feel, while the smart home system caters to a convenient lifestyle. Enjoy the modern front-facing 2-car garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,060 · $422/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,822/yr (+$319/mo · 308.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,488
• − Property taxes: −$1,237
• − Insurance: −$1,382
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,297
• − Management: −$2,297
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,043
• Taxable loss: −$2,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$603
• After-tax cash flow: $2,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It's move-in ready and would benefit from some curb appeal improvements and modern updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior brick and stone — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior brick and stone — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,265
• Population (ZIP): 10,265

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $276,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $276,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $275,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $275,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $273,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $273,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $274,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $282,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $274,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-10 Listed $272,490 Zillow