403 Flintlock Rd · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$282,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 260 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,405 sqft lot $172/sqft · 6% below area Est $317k · 11% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Traditions Series home is tailored for the modern professional or the growing family. The impressive exterior, with its custom elevation and kiln-fired brick, makes a sophisticated statement. (Some elevations also include stone and siding. ) Enter through the raised panel fiberglass insulated door to a streamlined foyer that leads to open-concept living. The kitchen, with its sleek 36" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, is perfect for quick meals or entertaining colleagues and family. The primary suite offers a luxurious escape, featuring a dual sink vanity bathroom, walk-in shower, and spacious closet. Laminate wood plank flooring provides a contemporary feel, while the smart home system caters to a convenient lifestyle. Enjoy the modern front-facing 2-car garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Community pool
• Island kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LED LIGHTING
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($21/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Caddo Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Frances And Jeannette Lee El (math 63% / reading 55%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 571 students, 29% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 605 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $220,754 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,413
• List price: $282,490
• Delta: -11.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Flintlock Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+5%)	7mo	$287,490	$166	84
412 Tia Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+5%)	12mo	$299,430	$173	76
211 Bobcat Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+5%)	7mo	$294,030	$169	76
501 Carthage St	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,831 (+11%)	1mo	$288,490	$158	70
413 Range Rd	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+11%)	8mo	$331,490	$181	67
215 Bobcat Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+11%)	8mo	$298,990	$163	62
300 Tia Ave	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+11%)	12mo	$283,000	$155	61
211 Buckboard Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+11%)	8mo	$299,650	$164	60
412 Bailey Way	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,816 (+10%)	12mo	$300,000	$165	59
177 Longhorn Pass	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+5%)	12mo	$265,000	$153	58
108 Condor Pass	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,830 (+11%)	7mo	$267,999	$146	55
3330 Fm 36 S	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,554 (-6%)	8mo	$339,900	$219	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-45,762
• Equity at exit: $42,120

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-40,096
• Equity at exit: $24,425

Cash invested: $79,097 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 37.3 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $292,990 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 77 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,481
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,237/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,205

Max offer price $282,490

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $82	+0% $2	+5% $-78	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-85	+0% $2	+5% $89	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $74	base $2	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,622
• Closing costs: $8,475
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Range Rd Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2060	$2,500	$1.21	142d	1	0.14mi
116 Kiskadee Trl Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$1,995	$0.99	124d	1	0.22mi
210 Calico Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2012	$2,350	$1.17	102d	1	0.23mi
108 Timber Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$2,095	$1.15	6d	1	0.24mi
151 Coyote Trl Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$2,350	$1.35	63d	1	0.37mi
132 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,400	$1.35	153d	1	0.41mi
152 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	96d	1	0.46mi
221 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,000	$0.99	123d	1	0.51mi
221 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2010	$1,950	$0.97	109d	1	0.51mi
187 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,195	$1.10	146d	1	0.52mi
176 Mockingbird Way Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2035	$1,995	$0.98	93d	1	0.54mi
218 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,195	$1.27	184d	1	0.55mi
125 Smarty Jones St Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,100	$1.24	10d	1	1.36mi
157 Silver Charm Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,200	$1.05	65d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $282,490 Active 260 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $282,490 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $282,490 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $282,490 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $282,490 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $282,490 Active 254 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $282,490 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $282,490 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $282,490 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $282,490 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $282,490 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $282,490 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $282,490 Active 247 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $282,490 Active 246 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $282,490 Active 245 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $282,490 Active 244 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $282,490 Active 243 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $282,490 Active 242 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $282,490 Active 241 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $282,490 Active 240 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $282,490 Active 239 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $282,490 Active 238 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $282,490 Active 237 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $282,490 Active 236 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $282,490 Active 235 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $282,490 Active 234 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $282,490 Active 233 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $282,490 Active 232 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $282,490 Active 231 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $282,490 Active 230 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $282,490 Active 229 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $282,490 Active 228 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $282,490 Active 227 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $282,490 Active 226 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $282,490 Active 225 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $282,490 Active 224 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    price $282,490 Active 223 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $281,490 Active 223 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $281,490 Active 222 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $281,490 Active 221 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $281,490 Active 220 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $281,490 Active 219 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $281,490 Active 218 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $281,490 Active 217 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $281,490 Active 216 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $281,490 Active 215 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $281,490 Active 214 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $281,490 Active 213 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $281,490 Active 212 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $281,490 Active 211 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,170 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,932/yr (+$328/mo · 317.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,824
• − Property taxes: −$1,237
• − Insurance: −$1,412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,218
• Taxable loss: −$4,920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,181
• After-tax cash flow: $1,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It's move-in ready and would benefit from some curb appeal improvements and modern updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior brick and stone — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Frances And Jeannette Lee El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Caddo Mills Middle C+ TX #301/1,662 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Caddo Mills H S B+ TX #82/1,632 Nat'l #1,629/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt · 97,090 people
• City population: 10,265
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,265
• Household income: $95,428
• Rent vs Own: 13.0% rent · 87.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $276,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $276,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $275,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $275,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $273,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $273,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $274,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $282,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $274,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-10 Listed $272,490 Zillow