3161 Royal Tern Dr · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$259,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,851 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 239 Days on market

Built 2020 5,750 sqft lot $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. One of our most popular floor plans, this 4 Bed/2 Bath has many charming features with oversized lot, no rear neighbors and water view. The Master Suite offers dual sinks and a spacious walk in closet. The kitchen island and open floor plan are ideal for entertaining. This home includes all major appliances, blinds and now featuring Smart Home Technology with Alexa. Conveniently located close to I-4, shopping and entertainment. Two Community pools and tot lot. All this for a great price!! * * Virtual Tour is a Representation of the Home for Sale. Everything in the virtual tour may not be in the house for sale. * * * Photos are of similar model but not that of exact house. Please note that no representations or warranties are made regarding school districts or school assignments; you should conduct your own investigation regarding current and future schools and school boundaries. *

Key facts

• Serene water view
• No rear neighbors
• Expansive yard

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• SERENE WATER VIEW
• LARGE PANTRY
• PRIVATE SCREENED-IN PATIO
• EXPANSIVE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-320 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fred G. Garner Elementary School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 901 students, 62% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,574 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.29%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-64,013
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-88,718
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,569/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,351

Max offer price $202,508

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-173	-5% $-246	+0% $-320	+5% $-393	+10% $-466
Rent	-10% $-474	-5% $-397	+0% $-320	+5% $-243	+10% $-166
Rate	-1.0pp $-189	-0.5pp $-254	base $-320	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,200	$1.54	5d	1	1.27mi
241 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,000	$1.16	16d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-23
   price $259,000
3. 2025-10-03
   listed $270,000 Active
4. 2025-08-29
   soldstatus Closed
5. 2025-05-27
   status Pending
6. 2025-05-06
   status Active
7. 2025-04-14
   status Pending
8. 2025-03-27
   listed $270,000 Active
9. 2020-06-04
   soldstatus $232,990 Sold 918-char remark

   Show marketing remark (918 chars)

   Under Construction. One of our most popular floor plans, this 4 Bed/2 Bath has many charming features with oversized lot, no rear neighbors and water view. The Master Suite offers dual sinks and a spacious walk in closet. The kitchen island and open floor plan are ideal for entertaining. This home includes all major appliances, blinds and now featuring Smart Home Technology with Alexa. Conveniently located close to I-4, shopping and entertainment. Two Community pools and tot lot. All this for a great price!! * * Virtual Tour is a Representation of the Home for Sale. Everything in the virtual tour may not be in the house for sale. * * * Photos are of similar model but not that of exact house. Please note that no representations or warranties are made regarding school districts or school assignments; you should conduct your own investigation regarding current and future schools and school boundaries. *

10. 2020-05-01
    historical 918-char remark

    Show marketing remark (918 chars)

    Under Construction. One of our most popular floor plans, this 4 Bed/2 Bath has many charming features with oversized lot, no rear neighbors and water view. The Master Suite offers dual sinks and a spacious walk in closet. The kitchen island and open floor plan are ideal for entertaining. This home includes all major appliances, blinds and now featuring Smart Home Technology with Alexa. Conveniently located close to I-4, shopping and entertainment. Two Community pools and tot lot. All this for a great price!! * * Virtual Tour is a Representation of the Home for Sale. Everything in the virtual tour may not be in the house for sale. * * * Photos are of similar model but not that of exact house. Please note that no representations or warranties are made regarding school districts or school assignments; you should conduct your own investigation regarding current and future schools and school boundaries. *

11. 2020-04-29
    listed $232,990 918-char remark

    Show marketing remark (918 chars)

    Under Construction. One of our most popular floor plans, this 4 Bed/2 Bath has many charming features with oversized lot, no rear neighbors and water view. The Master Suite offers dual sinks and a spacious walk in closet. The kitchen island and open floor plan are ideal for entertaining. This home includes all major appliances, blinds and now featuring Smart Home Technology with Alexa. Conveniently located close to I-4, shopping and entertainment. Two Community pools and tot lot. All this for a great price!! * * Virtual Tour is a Representation of the Home for Sale. Everything in the virtual tour may not be in the house for sale. * * * Photos are of similar model but not that of exact house. Please note that no representations or warranties are made regarding school districts or school assignments; you should conduct your own investigation regarding current and future schools and school boundaries. *

12. 2020-01-10
    soldstatus $750,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,569 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,569 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$4,569
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$8,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,019
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-65.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Listed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Sold (MLS) — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Listed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-04 Sold (MLS) $232,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-29 Listed $232,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $750,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,569 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.