8421 Bougainvillea Dr · McAllen, TX 78573

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1999 0.28 ac lot $198/sqft · 38% above area Est $302k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in Mission TX! This inviting property has been freshly painted and features a renovated kitchen with modern finishes, blending classic country charm with stylish updates. The home offers a welcoming living area ideal for everyday living and entertaining, along with generously sized bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard with plenty of room for outdoor living, gardening, or future projects. A detached workshop provides the perfect opportunity for a she shed, man cave, art studio, or hobby workspace. The property also includes an additional fenced area suitable for a chicken coop, making it ideal for gardening, homesteading, or creative outdoor use. A truly unique property offering charm, versatility, and space to make your own. A wonderful opportunity for homeowners seeking charm, workspace potential, and room to grow.

Key facts

• Fenced area
• Large backyard
• Detached workshop

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DETACHED WORKSHOP
• FENCED AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-621 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (43.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (41.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (43.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Salinas El (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 366 students, 95% FRL); Rafael A Cantu J H (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 594 students, 91% FRL); Veterans Memorial H S (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,932 students, 81% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 625 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,328 (43.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.64%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,646
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -17.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8725 Bougainvillea Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,270 (+1%)	22mo	$240,000	$189	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $95,863
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $311,901
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78573

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 625
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,323/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,247

Max offer price $140,328

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-479	-5% $-550	+0% $-621	+5% $-692	+10% $-762
Rent	-10% $-736	-5% $-679	+0% $-621	+5% $-563	+10% $-505
Rate	-1.0pp $-495	-0.5pp $-557	base $-621	+0.5pp $-686	+1.0pp $-752

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1401 Karen Dr Unit B Alton, TX	2.0	2.5	1058	$1,500	$1.42	16d	1	1.17mi
1409 Karen Dr Unit B Alton, TX	2.0	2.5	1079	$1,500	$1.39	16d	1	1.17mi
1408 Karen Dr Unit B Alton, TX	2.0	2.5	1172	$1,500	$1.28	16d	1	1.19mi
1404 Karen Dr Unit C Alton, TX	2.0	2.5	1058	$1,500	$1.42	16d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-19
   historical Option 873-char remark

   Show marketing remark (873 chars)

   Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in Mission TX! This inviting property has been freshly painted and features a renovated kitchen with modern finishes, blending classic country charm with stylish updates. The home offers a welcoming living area ideal for everyday living and entertaining, along with generously sized bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard with plenty of room for outdoor living, gardening, or future projects. A detached workshop provides the perfect opportunity for a she shed, man cave, art studio, or hobby workspace. The property also includes an additional fenced area suitable for a chicken coop, making it ideal for gardening, homesteading, or creative outdoor use. A truly unique property offering charm, versatility, and space to make your own. A wonderful opportunity for homeowners seeking charm, workspace potential, and room to grow.

2. 2026-04-10
   price $250,000 873-char remark

   Show marketing remark (873 chars)

   Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in Mission TX! This inviting property has been freshly painted and features a renovated kitchen with modern finishes, blending classic country charm with stylish updates. The home offers a welcoming living area ideal for everyday living and entertaining, along with generously sized bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard with plenty of room for outdoor living, gardening, or future projects. A detached workshop provides the perfect opportunity for a she shed, man cave, art studio, or hobby workspace. The property also includes an additional fenced area suitable for a chicken coop, making it ideal for gardening, homesteading, or creative outdoor use. A truly unique property offering charm, versatility, and space to make your own. A wonderful opportunity for homeowners seeking charm, workspace potential, and room to grow.

3. 2026-03-09
   listed $265,000 Active 873-char remark

   Show marketing remark (873 chars)

   Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in Mission TX! This inviting property has been freshly painted and features a renovated kitchen with modern finishes, blending classic country charm with stylish updates. The home offers a welcoming living area ideal for everyday living and entertaining, along with generously sized bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard with plenty of room for outdoor living, gardening, or future projects. A detached workshop provides the perfect opportunity for a she shed, man cave, art studio, or hobby workspace. The property also includes an additional fenced area suitable for a chicken coop, making it ideal for gardening, homesteading, or creative outdoor use. A truly unique property offering charm, versatility, and space to make your own. A wonderful opportunity for homeowners seeking charm, workspace potential, and room to grow.

4. 2022-05-24
   historical 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Property has been well maintained. 4 bedroom/2 bath, 3 yr old Roof. Master Bedroom is approximately 12 X 26 with large closet. All tile floors, Air conditioned garage can be used for multi-purpose. East side and west side patios for outdoor entertaining, MVEC for electricity. Storage/Shed (25 x 30) in back conveys. Lot size is approx 80 X 152 per owner. Go West on 107, past Stewart, go North on Bryan Road, and 1/2 mile north to west on Bougainvillea. Mission schools.

5. 2022-05-24
   soldstatus Sold 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Property has been well maintained. 4 bedroom/2 bath, 3 yr old Roof. Master Bedroom is approximately 12 X 26 with large closet. All tile floors, Air conditioned garage can be used for multi-purpose. East side and west side patios for outdoor entertaining, MVEC for electricity. Storage/Shed (25 x 30) in back conveys. Lot size is approx 80 X 152 per owner. Go West on 107, past Stewart, go North on Bryan Road, and 1/2 mile north to west on Bougainvillea. Mission schools.

6. 2022-05-24
   listed $200,000 Active 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Property has been well maintained. 4 bedroom/2 bath, 3 yr old Roof. Master Bedroom is approximately 12 X 26 with large closet. All tile floors, Air conditioned garage can be used for multi-purpose. East side and west side patios for outdoor entertaining, MVEC for electricity. Storage/Shed (25 x 30) in back conveys. Lot size is approx 80 X 152 per owner. Go West on 107, past Stewart, go North on Bryan Road, and 1/2 mile north to west on Bougainvillea. Mission schools.

7. 2022-05-17
   soldstatus
8. 2018-06-05
   price $119,500
9. 2018-05-17
   price $23,500
10. 2017-05-18
    historical
11. 2017-05-17
    soldstatus Sold
12. 2017-05-17
    price $29,900
13. 2017-05-17
    soldstatus Sold
14. 2017-05-17
    soldstatus
15. 2017-04-10
    historical
16. 2017-04-10
    price $121,000
17. 2017-03-12
    price $119,500
18. 2016-09-08
    listed $29,900 Active
19. 2016-09-05
    listed $127,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,323 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$252/yr (+$21/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,323
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,403
• − Management: −$1,403
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$12,117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,908
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — McAllen

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #3771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 144,650
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,809
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 855.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 63% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.95%
• Current HPI: 242.0711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.45%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+96.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $250,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $265,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-05-24 Delisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-05-24 Listed $200,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-05-24 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2022-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-06-05 Price Changed $119,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2018-05-17 Price Changed $23,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2017-05-18 Delisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2017-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-05-17 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2017-05-17 Price Changed $29,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2017-05-17 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2017-04-10 Delisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2017-04-10 Price Changed $121,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2017-03-12 Price Changed $119,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2016-09-08 Listed $29,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2016-09-05 Listed $127,500 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,323 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.