530 Maple St · Melvin, IA 51350

$137,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1956 Est $148k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3 bed 2 bath home with updated master bathroom, tremendous storage space, beautiful woodwork, fenced in backyard, one stall attached garage, two stall detached heated garage, and a quiet neighborhood.

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• Quiet neighborhood
• Built 1956

Tags

• UPDATED MASTER BATHROOM
• TREMENDOUS STORAGE SPACE
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($632/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#662 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn Community School District (rural): math 72% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #111 of 289 in IA (top 38%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($951 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Osceola County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $92k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,849 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.64%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,840
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
282 Main St	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (-7%)	6mo	$137,500	$88	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $8,085
• Equity at exit: $49,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $39,828
• Equity at exit: $67,278

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51350

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,389/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,132

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $92	+0% $53	+5% $14	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $5	+0% $53	+5% $100	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $88	base $53	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $137,500 Active
3. 2022-05-23
   soldstatus $92,500
4. 2018-04-02
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,389 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,774 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$385/yr (+$32/mo · 27.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$1,389
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,151
• − Management: −$1,151
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable loss: −$1,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$407
• After-tax cash flow: $1,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1913660
• Math proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,177
• Composite: 61.08/100
• National rank: #790
• State rank: #111 of 289 in IA

Livability — Melvin

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #15302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Melvin, IA
• Population (ZIP): 417

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,434 people
• By 2030: 5,046 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 4,339 · -20.2%
• By 2050: 3,711 · -31.7%
• By 2075: 2,649 · -51.3%
• By 2100: 1,975 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 24% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.2% · R 81.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.6pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+62.8 2016: R+61.8 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.32%
• Current HPI: 108.3892
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+83.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $137,500 FSBO.com
• 2022-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2018-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,389 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.