1505 Ward Rd Unit C121 · Baytown, TX 77520

$68,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 967 sqft · Condo · 52 Days on market

Built 1971 Fair condition $70/sqft · at area comps Est $71k · at est. $430/mo HOA · 37% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a downstairs condominium in Walnut Ridge. It is a 2 bedroom 2 bath unit. The living room has a corner fireplace. The electric range, refrigerator, washer & dryer are included. There is a community pool & a BBQ area to enjoy. This could be a good home for a first-time homebuyer, college student of someone wanting to downsize. This unit comes with 2 assigned parking spaces (1 covered parking & 1 uncovered). Guest parking is also available. Short drive to Hwy 99.

Key facts

• Guest parking
• Community pool
• Bbq area

Tags

• CORNER FIREPLACE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BBQ AREA
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACES
• GUEST PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Walnut Ridge community; Community pool; Curbs; Monthly association fee of $430 covering grounds and structure maintenance, recreation facilities, water and sewer

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space); Detached carport; Additional assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story; Faces south; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 1971; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Concrete road access; Private in-ground pool (association); Fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven / electric range; Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13 x 11); Additional bedroom on first floor (13 x 11); Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Window treatments / coverings; Ceiling fan(s); Combined living and dining area; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $68k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($96/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Bayou J H (math 46% / reading 32%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 969 students, 81% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 61% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,960 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.50%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,367
• List price: $68,000
• Delta: -4.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-12,163
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-16,460
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77520

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$430
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2300 Taft Cir Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$878	$0.82	1d	19	0.42mi
1717 James Bowie Dr Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	43d	1	0.61mi
1507 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,075	$1.00	43d	1	0.65mi
1502 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,000	$0.99	43d	1	0.65mi
1510 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,100	$1.09	43d	1	0.67mi
1512 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,200	$1.08	43d	1	0.68mi
1525 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,250	$1.12	24d	1	0.69mi
2500 E James Ave Baytown, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,030	$0.94	1d	18	0.70mi
2399 James Bowie Dr Unit APG Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,275	$1.34	24d	1	0.81mi
2399 James Bowie Dr Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,275	$1.34	18d	1	0.81mi
2104 James Bowie Dr Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	997	$1,350	$1.35	43d	1	0.82mi
2111 Cedar Bayou Rd Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	684	$950	$1.39	43d	1	0.86mi
2 Rodney Ln Baytown, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1025	$1,249	$1.22	1d	6	0.88mi
2700 Ward Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	683	$955	$1.40	17d	8	0.94mi
2700 Ward Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	822	$1,060	$1.29	1d	32	0.94mi
2706 Ward Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,200	$1.13	43d	1	0.94mi
301 Tri City Beach Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	792	$1,350	$1.70	43d	1	1.03mi
105 E Adoue St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	43d	1	1.04mi
2509 Cedar Bayou Rd Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$1,200	$2.00	43d	1	1.07mi
211 E Sterling Ave Unit 2 Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	640	$725	$1.13	24d	1	1.14mi
211 E Sterling Ave Unit 1 Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	640	$725	$1.13	43d	1	1.14mi
1706 Bob Smith Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	43d	1	1.31mi
508 Forrest St Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	5d	1	1.45mi
510 Williams Ave Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	699	$1,599	$2.29	2d	5	1.47mi
516 William Ave Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	931	$1,250	$1.34	43d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $430 · $5,160/yr
• Likely covers: electricpoolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $68,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $68,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $68,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $68,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-04-27
    listed $68,000 Active 489-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − HOA: −$5,160
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable loss: −$723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$173
• After-tax cash flow: $269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo requires moderate renovations, focusing on the exterior and interior updates to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Wooden fence — Significant rot and damage
• Major Concrete walkway — Cracks and potential structural issues
• Minor Landscaping — Sparse vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace countertops — Improves functionality and resale value
• Both Upgrade fixtures — Enhances overall look and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Wooden fence · Significant rot and damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Concrete walkway · Cracks and potential structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Sparse vegetation	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$30,500–103,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Improves functionality and resale value ↑
• Both Upgrade fixtures — Enhances overall look and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,355
• Household income: $54,278
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.36%
• Current HPI: 262.066
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $68,000 HARMLS